垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目收益的系统动力学模型

发布时间：2018-10-12 07:49

【摘要】：在垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目的前期决策中,项目收益是政府和项目公司展开谈判的基础问题。通过对此类项目收益系统的影响因素分析,基于系统动力学方法构建了项目收益模型,并运用模糊逻辑方法研究了地区经济发展水平和政府履约程度等定性因素对模型的影响。在此基础上,运用系统动力学分析软件Vensim PLE和MATLAB软件中的模糊逻辑工具箱,对垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目案例进行模拟。根据项目收益变化情况的模拟结果,讨论了在政府部门和项目公司各自期望的收益水平下特许期和特许价格的合理决策,并分析了特许期、特许价格和垃圾热值变化对项目收益的影响,从而为政府和项目公司运作垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目提供了决策参考。
[Abstract]:In the early decision of the BOT project of MSW incineration power generation, the project income is the basis of the negotiation between the government and the project company. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of this kind of project income system, the project income model is constructed based on the system dynamics method, and the influence of qualitative factors, such as the level of regional economic development and the degree of government performance, on the model is studied by using the fuzzy logic method. On this basis, the case study of MSW incineration power generation BOT project is carried out by using the system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE and the fuzzy logic toolbox in MATLAB software. According to the simulation results of the change of the project income, the reasonable decision of the concession period and the concession price under the expected income level of the government department and the project company are discussed, and the concession period is analyzed. The effect of the change of the concession price and the waste calorific value on the benefit of the project provides a decision reference for the government and the project company to operate the BOT project of MSW incineration power generation.
【作者单位】：大连理工大学工商管理学院;辽宁科技大学工商管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71072107;71272091;71472022) 辽宁省高等学校优秀人才支持计划(LJQ2013011) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(DUT14RW210)
【分类号】：TM619

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