新能源发电项目多维度评价方法体系研究

发布时间：2018-10-21 16:07

【摘要】：当今社会化石燃料不断消耗、环境问题日益突出,新能源发电项目的建设如火如荼。迫切需要一套客观科学的评价方法对新能源发电项目的各个方面进行评价,找出项目的优势和不足,总结经验教训,为项目运营中出现的问题和未来新项目的决策提出建议。目前,新能源发电项目评价方法的研究已经取得了一些成果,但已有研究多是针对新能源电站的某一个评价方面提出一种具体的评价方法,尚未形成具有一定指导原则的多目标综合评价方法理论体系。为此,论文建立了将“宏观层面”的综合评价方法与“微观层面”的基本评价方法相结合的“多维度评价方法体系”。在宏观层面上,针对技术性能、经济效益、社会影响和项目总体效果四个评价维度的不同特点,分别采用变权灰云模型、数据包络／保证域法、成功度模糊综合评判法和改进雷达图法进行综合评价；在微观层面上,针对重要指标评价维度选择对比分析法、比率分析法、因素替换法、曲线拟合法等基本评价方法进一步深入分析。通过某风力发电项目2个运营期的评价算例验证了所提出评价方法体系的实用性和有效性。此外,论文根据新能源发电项目技术性能评价的特点,提出了变权灰云模型的评价方法评价技术性能。该方法针对灰色聚类白化权函数形式固定的缺陷,采用正态灰云模型取代传统白化权函数,有效反映了评价等级信息的模糊性和随机性；同时,为避免不合格指标的消极影响被掩盖,引入“惩罚型”状态变权向量修正常权权重,对不合格的指标进行惩罚,通过与灰色关联分析法的评价结果比较,验证了变权的合理性和优越性。通过对4个典型风电场的实例进行综合评价,验证了上述方法的有效性。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, fossil fuel consumption and environmental problems are becoming more and more serious, and the construction of new energy generation projects is in full swing. There is an urgent need for a set of objective and scientific evaluation methods to evaluate all aspects of the new energy generation project, find out the advantages and disadvantages of the project, sum up the experience and lessons, and put forward suggestions for the problems in the project operation and the decision of the new project in the future. At present, some achievements have been made in the research of new energy power generation project evaluation methods, but most of the studies have put forward a specific evaluation method for a new energy power station. The theoretical system of multi-objective comprehensive evaluation method with certain guiding principles has not yet been formed. Therefore, the paper establishes a "multi-dimensional evaluation method system" which combines the comprehensive evaluation method of "macro level" with the basic evaluation method of "micro level". On the macro level, according to the different characteristics of the four dimensions of technical performance, economic benefit, social impact and overall effect of the project, the variable weight grey cloud model, the data envelopment / assurance domain method, are adopted respectively. The method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of degree of success and the improved radar map method are used for comprehensive evaluation, and at the micro level, the comparative analysis method, the ratio analysis method and the factor replacement method are selected for the evaluation dimension of important indexes. The basic evaluation methods, such as curve fitting method, are further analyzed. The practicability and validity of the proposed evaluation method are verified by the evaluation examples of a wind power project in two operating periods. In addition, according to the characteristics of technical performance evaluation of new energy power generation project, the paper puts forward the evaluation method of variable weight grey cloud model to evaluate the technical performance. Aiming at the fixed form of grey clustering whitening weight function, the normal gray cloud model is used to replace the traditional whitening weight function, which effectively reflects the fuzziness and randomness of the evaluation grade information. In order to avoid the negative influence of the unqualified index being concealed, the "penalty type" state variable weight vector is introduced to revise the normal weight, and the unqualified index is punished. The evaluation results are compared with those of the grey relational analysis method. The rationality and superiority of variable weight are verified. The effectiveness of the above method is verified by comprehensive evaluation of four typical wind farms.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM61

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