生物质发电燃料供给行为及模式研究
发布时间：2018-10-23 12:48
【摘要】：近年来,生物质能作为一种清洁能源逐步受到重视,生物质能的应用技术得到迅猛的发展。生物质发电是生物质能高效利用的主要方式之一。伴随着我国一系列相关政策与产业发展规划的提出,尽管生物质发电行业进入了一个快速发展期,但由于缺乏充足的燃料,许多生物质发电企业处于亏损状态。因此,从农户供给意愿和行为对影响生物质燃料供给的因素进行分析,并对燃料供给模式进行研究对生物质发电产业的发展有重要意义。农户对农业秸秆供应的意愿和行为是影响秸秆收集利用的关键。本文利用因子分析法识别影响农户意愿和行为的主要因素,继而用logistic模型分别探讨这些因素对意愿和行为的影响。研究结果表明,年龄、文化程度、农户对秸秆的利用和认知、他人是否利用秸秆、村委会是否号召等都对农户供给意愿影响显著,而对农户行为产生实质性影响的因素仅有农户对秸秆的利用和认知、他人是否利用秸秆、村委会是否号召、农户的生产经营特征。农户供给意愿到行为的转换存在一定障碍。为提高农户秸秆供应意愿和行为,本文提出有限理性模式,探讨了该模式对农户意愿的影响机制。并在完全理性和有限理性两种假设下考虑农户和相关组织行为,构建基于经济利益最大化和效用最大化两种完全信息动态博弈模型,分析生物质燃料供应模式。两模型的纳什均衡均表明,农户生物质燃料供给量、组织提供给农户的价格同上网电价呈正相关关系,同燃料的运输、存储及预处理成本呈负相关关系。另外,在有限理性模式下,效用函数系数对生物质燃料供给量租基金组织给农户的经济利益有一定影响。对两模式进行比较发现,有限理性模式下,农户的生物质燃料供给量和收益均高于完全理性模式。因此基于有限理性的基金组织的供应模式更有利于生物质燃料的高效供应。
[Abstract]:In recent years, biomass energy as a kind of clean energy has been paid more and more attention, and the application technology of biomass energy has been developed rapidly. Biomass power generation is one of the main ways to utilize biomass energy efficiently. With a series of related policies and industrial development plans put forward in China, although biomass power generation industry has entered a rapid development period, but due to the lack of sufficient fuel, many biomass power generation enterprises are in a state of loss. Therefore, it is of great significance for the development of biomass power generation industry to analyze the factors that affect the biomass fuel supply from the farmers' willingness and behavior, and to study the fuel supply mode. The willingness and behavior of farmers to supply agricultural straw is the key to affect the collection and utilization of straw. This paper uses factor analysis method to identify the main factors that affect farmers' will and behavior, and then uses logistic model to explore the influence of these factors on the will and behavior of farmers. The results show that age, education level, farmers' use and cognition of straw, whether others use straw, village committee call or not all have significant effects on farmers' willingness to supply. However, the factors that have substantial influence on the behavior of farmers are the utilization and cognition of straw, the use of straw by others, the call of village committee, and the characteristics of farmers' production and management. There are some obstacles to the conversion of farmers' supply intention to behavior. In order to improve the willingness and behavior of farmers' straw supply, this paper puts forward a limited rational model and discusses the influence mechanism of this model on farmers' willingness. Under the assumption of complete rationality and limited rationality, the dynamic game models based on economic benefit maximization and utility maximization are constructed to analyze the biomass fuel supply mode. The Nash equilibrium of the two models showed that there was a positive correlation between the supply of biomass fuel and the price provided by the organization to the farmer and the price of electricity on the Internet, but a negative correlation was found between the supply of biomass fuel and the cost of transportation, storage and pretreatment of the fuel. In addition, under the limited rationality model, the utility function coefficient has a certain influence on the economic benefits of the biomass fuel supply rental fund to farmers. By comparing the two models, it is found that the biomass fuel supply and income of farmers are higher than that of the complete rational model under the limited rationality model. Therefore, the IMF supply mode based on limited rationality is more favorable to the efficient supply of biomass fuel.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TM619
[Abstract]:In recent years, biomass energy as a kind of clean energy has been paid more and more attention, and the application technology of biomass energy has been developed rapidly. Biomass power generation is one of the main ways to utilize biomass energy efficiently. With a series of related policies and industrial development plans put forward in China, although biomass power generation industry has entered a rapid development period, but due to the lack of sufficient fuel, many biomass power generation enterprises are in a state of loss. Therefore, it is of great significance for the development of biomass power generation industry to analyze the factors that affect the biomass fuel supply from the farmers' willingness and behavior, and to study the fuel supply mode. The willingness and behavior of farmers to supply agricultural straw is the key to affect the collection and utilization of straw. This paper uses factor analysis method to identify the main factors that affect farmers' will and behavior, and then uses logistic model to explore the influence of these factors on the will and behavior of farmers. The results show that age, education level, farmers' use and cognition of straw, whether others use straw, village committee call or not all have significant effects on farmers' willingness to supply. However, the factors that have substantial influence on the behavior of farmers are the utilization and cognition of straw, the use of straw by others, the call of village committee, and the characteristics of farmers' production and management. There are some obstacles to the conversion of farmers' supply intention to behavior. In order to improve the willingness and behavior of farmers' straw supply, this paper puts forward a limited rational model and discusses the influence mechanism of this model on farmers' willingness. Under the assumption of complete rationality and limited rationality, the dynamic game models based on economic benefit maximization and utility maximization are constructed to analyze the biomass fuel supply mode. The Nash equilibrium of the two models showed that there was a positive correlation between the supply of biomass fuel and the price provided by the organization to the farmer and the price of electricity on the Internet, but a negative correlation was found between the supply of biomass fuel and the cost of transportation, storage and pretreatment of the fuel. In addition, under the limited rationality model, the utility function coefficient has a certain influence on the economic benefits of the biomass fuel supply rental fund to farmers. By comparing the two models, it is found that the biomass fuel supply and income of farmers are higher than that of the complete rational model under the limited rationality model. Therefore, the IMF supply mode based on limited rationality is more favorable to the efficient supply of biomass fuel.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TM619
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前5条
1 邢爱华;刘罡;王W，
本文编号：2289291
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