中国晶体硅太阳能电池板的生命周期评价

发布时间：2018-10-25 20:53

【摘要】：太阳能光伏发电作为一种新型清洁能源得到了各国政府广泛的关注和应用。LCA是分析产品系统对环境影响的方法,通过LCA可以发现其影响环境的潜在之处并将其对环境的影响降到最低。近些年国内外对光伏电池板的LCA有丰富的研究,然而这些研究存在严重的不足:1.目前没有中国太阳能电池板的完整LCA研究,绝大部分现有的研究缺乏对数据选取和废弃处理等过程的详细分析;2.国内外绝大部分LCA研究中缺乏结果可靠性和不确定性的分析,导致了读者无法判断结果的可信度;3.缺乏提高LCA结果可靠性的方法框架。本文将针对以上问题展开研究。首先,建立完整的中国光伏电池板LCA。主要对单元过程输入输出数据的确定和清单计算以及废弃处理进行研究。1.分析数据来源及其质量,包括生产单元过程的信息(时间代表性、技术代表性等)、LCI方法和分配原则、数据来源、数据处理方法和数据代表性、完整性、可靠性以及审核信息;2.确定单元过程的输入输出数据,对比分析并选取了合适的上游清单数据库,并开发简易基于的EXCEL的生命周期清单计算工具,计算了各生产阶段、废弃处理阶段以及全生命周期的从摇篮到大门‖的清单数据;3.进行生命周期影响评价,主要突出电池板生产过程各阶段及各输入物质对环境的影响程度,结果显示电池板对“人类健康”的影响最大,而各输入物质中,“电能”引起的环境污染最为严重;4.进行完善的生命周期解释,包括重大问题识别、敏感性和不确定性分析、完整性和一致性检查等。其次,对本研究LCA结果的可靠性和不确定性进行分析。敏感性分析的结果显示,银浆、POCl3和碳化硅对温室效应具有最高的敏感性系数SC,“过程二NaOH”、“过程二能耗”和“过程三能耗”对温室效应具有最高的敏感性比SR。此外对酸性以及不同时间跨度的温室效应模型进行对比分析,基本得出相同的敏感性排名。不确定性的结果显示,在置信度为97.5%情形下,平均标准误差为0.19-0.22,只有“酸化”的分布函数符合与输入物质相同的对数正态分布,而三种不同时间跨度下的“温室效应”则最符合最大值分布。其中碳化硅、聚乙二醇、铝边框和铜对总结过的不确定性具有最高程度的影响。再次,本文提出了将不确定性分析深入到LCA每个过程的新框架,有助于LCA研究的进一步发展。最后对本文研究进行了总结,以及未来的展望。
[Abstract]:Solar photovoltaic power generation as a new clean energy has been widely concerned and applied by governments. LCA is a method to analyze the impact of product systems on the environment. Through LCA, the potential of environmental impact can be found and its impact on the environment is minimized. In recent years, there have been a lot of research on LCA of photovoltaic panels at home and abroad, but these researches have serious shortcomings: 1. At present, there is no complete LCA research on solar panels in China, and most of the existing researches lack detailed analysis of data selection and waste disposal. 2. Most of the LCA studies at home and abroad lack the analysis of reliability and uncertainty of the results, resulting in readers can not judge the reliability of the results; 3. There is no framework to improve the reliability of LCA results. This article will carry on the research to the above question. First of all, the establishment of a complete Chinese photovoltaic panel LCA. The unit process input and output data determination and inventory calculation and waste treatment are studied. 1. Analysis of data sources and their quality, including), LCI methods and allocation principles for production unit processes (time representation, technical representation, etc.), data sources, data processing methods and data representativeness, integrity, etc. Reliability and audit information; 2. The input and output data of the unit process are determined, the appropriate upstream inventory database is compared and selected, and the life cycle inventory calculation tool based on the simple EXCEL is developed, and the production stages are calculated. Inventory data for the waste disposal phase and the entire life cycle from cradle to door; 3. Life cycle impact assessment (LIA) mainly highlights the various stages of battery panel production and the impact of each input substance on the environment. The results show that the panel has the greatest impact on "human health", and among the various inputs, The environmental pollution caused by "electric energy" is the most serious. 4. Complete lifecycle interpretation, including critical problem identification, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, integrity and consistency checks, etc. Secondly, the reliability and uncertainty of LCA results are analyzed. The results of sensitivity analysis show that silver paste, POCl3 and silicon carbide have the highest sensitivity to Greenhouse Effect SC, "process two NaOH", "process two energy consumption" and "process three energy consumption" have the highest sensitivity to Greenhouse Effect than SR.. In addition, the acidic and different time span Greenhouse Effect models were compared and the same sensitivity ranking was obtained. The result of uncertainty shows that when the confidence is 97.5%, the average standard error is 0.19-0.22. Only the distribution function of "acidification" accords with the same logarithmic normal distribution as the input substance. The Greenhouse Effect with three different time spans is most suitable for maximum distribution. Silicon carbide, polyethylene glycol, aluminum borders and copper have the highest degree of uncertainty. Thirdly, this paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of uncertainty into each process of LCA, which is helpful to the further development of LCA research. Finally, this paper summarizes the research and future prospects.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TM914.41

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