基于风险评估的电力系统安全预警分级研究
发布时间：2018-10-29 16:22
【摘要】：随着电网互联规模的增大和复杂性的提高,电力系统的安全运行问题日益突出,国内外频繁发生的大停电事故不但造成了巨大的经济损失,而且严重影响社会稳定,进而引起了各国电力学者对电网安全可靠运行的广泛关注。随着我国电力需求的快速增长,以及西电东送、全国联网战略的实施,中国电网将成为世界上规模最大、最复杂的电网之一,提高电网运行可靠性、保证电网安全已成为电力系统面临的迫切性问题。因此对电网进行全面风险评估及安全预警具有十分重要的意义。鉴于此,本文对含风电场并网的电力系统风险评估及安全预警等问题开展一系列研究,主要工作归纳如下： 研究了电力系统安全评估方法发展的三个阶段,分析了几种电力系统可靠性评估方法的特点,确定了本文采用的风险评估方法为蒙特卡洛法；研究了效用函数理论,通过计及负荷的重要程度与电压等级等因素,改进了故障后果严重度模型,使模型更加符合电力系统实际情况；改进了海南电网的现有风险评估量化方法,消除了遮蔽现象；提出了基于风险评估的安全预警分级算法,因电力系统风险评估受故障概率和故障后果严重度的影响,研究了基于模糊C均值聚类方法的故障概率分级算法,提出了基于模糊推理原则的故障后果严重度分级算法,通过模糊运算确定了安全预警等级；建立了基于时间序列-状态转移法的风速预测模型和考虑尾流效应的风电机组出力模型及停运模型。 运用MATLAB软件编制的算法程序,结合IEEE-RTS79测试系统对风电场不同接入形式下以及用相同容量的风电场替代常规发电机组后的系统风险进行了仿真计算分析,验证了本文所提方法的有效性。仿真结果表明：风电的直接接入会导致系统风险指标及预警等级的提高,元件故障率对系统预警分级的影响较小,系统安全水平随负荷水平提高而降低。
[Abstract]:With the increase of interconnection scale and complexity of power network, the safe operation of power system is becoming more and more serious. Frequent power outages at home and abroad not only cause huge economic losses, but also seriously affect social stability. Therefore, electric power scholars all over the world pay more attention to the safe and reliable operation of power grid. With the rapid growth of power demand in China, the transmission of electricity from the west to the east, and the implementation of the national networking strategy, China's power grid will become one of the largest and most complex power grids in the world, improving the reliability of the power grid operation. To ensure the security of power system has become an urgent problem in power system. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out comprehensive risk assessment and security early warning for power grid. In view of this, this paper carries out a series of research on power system risk assessment and safety early warning with wind farm connected to the grid. The main work is summarized as follows: the three stages of the development of power system security assessment method are studied. This paper analyzes the characteristics of several power system reliability assessment methods and determines that the risk assessment method used in this paper is Monte Carlo method. The utility function theory is studied. The model of fault consequence severity is improved by taking into account the important degree of load and voltage grade, which makes the model more suitable for the actual situation of power system. The existing quantitative risk assessment method of Hainan Power Grid is improved, and the sheltering phenomenon is eliminated. A security early warning classification algorithm based on risk assessment is proposed. Because the power system risk assessment is affected by fault probability and fault consequence severity, a fault probability classification algorithm based on fuzzy C-means clustering method is studied. A fault consequence severity classification algorithm based on fuzzy reasoning principle is proposed, and the security early warning level is determined by fuzzy operation. The wind speed prediction model based on time series-state transfer method and wind turbine output model and outage model considering wake effect are established. By using the algorithm program compiled by MATLAB software and the IEEE-RTS79 test system, the system risk of replacing conventional generator sets with wind farms with the same capacity and different forms of access is simulated and analyzed. The validity of the proposed method is verified. The simulation results show that the direct access of wind power will lead to the increase of system risk index and warning level, the failure rate of components will have little effect on the early warning classification of the system, and the system safety level will decrease with the increase of load level.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM732
本文编号：2298198
[Abstract]:With the increase of interconnection scale and complexity of power network, the safe operation of power system is becoming more and more serious. Frequent power outages at home and abroad not only cause huge economic losses, but also seriously affect social stability. Therefore, electric power scholars all over the world pay more attention to the safe and reliable operation of power grid. With the rapid growth of power demand in China, the transmission of electricity from the west to the east, and the implementation of the national networking strategy, China's power grid will become one of the largest and most complex power grids in the world, improving the reliability of the power grid operation. To ensure the security of power system has become an urgent problem in power system. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out comprehensive risk assessment and security early warning for power grid. In view of this, this paper carries out a series of research on power system risk assessment and safety early warning with wind farm connected to the grid. The main work is summarized as follows: the three stages of the development of power system security assessment method are studied. This paper analyzes the characteristics of several power system reliability assessment methods and determines that the risk assessment method used in this paper is Monte Carlo method. The utility function theory is studied. The model of fault consequence severity is improved by taking into account the important degree of load and voltage grade, which makes the model more suitable for the actual situation of power system. The existing quantitative risk assessment method of Hainan Power Grid is improved, and the sheltering phenomenon is eliminated. A security early warning classification algorithm based on risk assessment is proposed. Because the power system risk assessment is affected by fault probability and fault consequence severity, a fault probability classification algorithm based on fuzzy C-means clustering method is studied. A fault consequence severity classification algorithm based on fuzzy reasoning principle is proposed, and the security early warning level is determined by fuzzy operation. The wind speed prediction model based on time series-state transfer method and wind turbine output model and outage model considering wake effect are established. By using the algorithm program compiled by MATLAB software and the IEEE-RTS79 test system, the system risk of replacing conventional generator sets with wind farms with the same capacity and different forms of access is simulated and analyzed. The validity of the proposed method is verified. The simulation results show that the direct access of wind power will lead to the increase of system risk index and warning level, the failure rate of components will have little effect on the early warning classification of the system, and the system safety level will decrease with the increase of load level.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM732
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前5条
1 许荣;车建国;杨作宾;左晓勇;;故障树分析法及其在系统可靠性分析中的应用[J];指挥控制与仿真;2010年01期
2 陈曦;娄素华;吴耀武;陈哲;余永泉;;基于风险的电力系统静态安全性评估综述[J];水电能源科学;2010年04期
3 杨媛媛;杨京燕;黄镇;;配电网风险评价体系及其应用[J];现代电力;2011年04期
4 陈树勇,戴慧珠,白晓民,周孝信;风电场的发电可靠性模型及其应用[J];中国电机工程学报;2000年03期
5 何剑;程林;孙元章;王鹏;;条件相依的输变电设备短期可靠性模型[J];中国电机工程学报;2009年07期
，本文编号：2298198
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/kejilunwen/dianlilw/2298198.html
