等维新息熵值法在中长期负荷预测中的应用

发布时间：2018-11-19 15:09

【摘要】：针对电力系统中长期负荷预测会受到很多不定因素的影响,通过采用组合预测等维新息熵值法对中长期电力负荷进行建模,建立了基于等维新息熵值法组合预测数学模型。先是用最优加权几何平均法和灰色关联分析法算出单一预测模型的权重,接着由熵值法确定模型评价指标的相对权重,最终获得组合权重因子。在组合预测模型中引入了等维新息数据处理的思想,实现了变权重,使预测结果能够更加合理地反映负荷发展趋势;并通过寻找等维新息的最佳维数区,优化了等维新息熵值法组合预测模型,得到更高的预测精度。计算结果显示了采用等维新息熵值法对中长期电力负荷进行预测的有效性。
[Abstract]:In view of the influence of many uncertain factors on the power system medium- and long-term load forecasting, the combined forecasting mathematical model based on the equal-dimensional innovation entropy method is established by using the combined forecasting equal-dimensional innovation entropy method to model the medium and long term power load. First, the weight of a single prediction model is calculated by using the optimal weighted geometric average method and the grey relational analysis method, and then the relative weight of the evaluation index of the model is determined by the entropy method, and the combined weight factor is finally obtained. The idea of equal dimension innovation data processing is introduced into the combined forecasting model, and the variable weight is realized, so that the forecast results can reflect the trend of load development more reasonably. By searching for the best dimensional region of the equal-dimensional innovation, the combined prediction model of the equal-dimensional innovation entropy method is optimized, and the higher prediction accuracy is obtained. The calculation results show the effectiveness of using the equal-dimensional innovation entropy method to forecast the power load in the medium and long term.
【作者单位】：四川大学电气信息学院;四川电力职业技术学院;南充市供电公司;
【分类号】：TM715

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