基于数值模拟结果的中国风光电资源评估研究
发布时间：2018-11-28 17:48
【摘要】：作为最大的发展中国家,我国对电力的需求量巨大,并不断增长。面对日益凸显的能源危机和环境问题,我国政府提出了一系列发展清洁低碳能源的计划。风能和太阳能被认为是当前能够大规模开发和具有商业化发展前景的清洁能源之一,风力发电与太阳能互补发电系统是科学利用自然资源的最新成果,研究风电及光伏装机容量的空间分布情况对于有效地大规模风光电并网、消纳,具有十分重要而紧迫的意义。从气候角度出发评估我国的风能及太阳能分布情况及其开发前景需要长达几十年甚至上百年的观测数据,若要进行大规模长期观测,并得到同步数据资料较为困难。因此,本文以评估我国的风能及太阳能分布的现状为研究目标,利用美国海军耦合海洋/大气中尺度预报系统COAMPS(Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction Sysytem)模拟我国全境一年的风资源潜力与太阳能辐射分布, 并基于概率论原理及COAMPS输出结果,利用计算得到的风能及光伏输出功率分析我国风电及光伏输出功率在不同时间及区域尺度下的变化规律,最后根据预估,在假设的理想情况下,分析了六大分电网互相并网下弃风率的改善情况。主要研究成果如下：1.根据COAMPS中尺度数值模拟结果,得到了我国的风能及太阳能资源分布区域,模拟结果显示,我国的东南沿海、山东、辽东沿海地区属于风资源丰富区域,青藏高原属于风能资源较丰富区域,川云贵高原以及塔里木盆地西北部属于风资源欠佳区域。对于我国太阳能资源资源分布情况,模拟结果显示我国宁夏北部、甘肃北部、新疆东南部、青海西部以及西藏西部太阳年辐射总量较大,属于太阳能资源丰富区域。江苏、安徽、湖北、浙江、四川、贵州等地区太阳年辐射总量较低,属于太阳能资源欠佳区域。2.通过对COAMPS模拟输出结果进行再分析,进一步探究风电及光电输出功率,结果显示当任意两个选点之间的距离为2000km时,太阳辐射能的相关系数高于0.7,当选点间的距离范围扩大到5000kmn时,太阳辐射能相关系数降低到0.4,而此时选点间风速已失去相关性。当区域尺度从200krn扩大到800km时,风电输出功率波动性呈现出输出平滑、波动性下降的趋势,而光伏输出功率每小时变化率的历时曲线呈现出的平滑效应十分有限。3.根据现阶段我国用电水平以及国家规划,对我国未来各分电网电力需求趋势做出预测。预测结果显示,西北电网的风电容量利用率最高,为34.7%,东北电网与华北电网次之,为32%,华中地区风电容量系数最低,为22.3%,而各个分电网的光伏容量利用率差异较小,在14%---17%范围内。同时,预测结果显示,如果将我国各大分电网进行并网,到2050年我国可以新增5%的风电容量,整个系统的弃风率将从29%下降到3%。
[Abstract]:As the largest developing country, China's demand for electricity is huge and growing. Facing the increasingly prominent energy crisis and environmental problems, our government has put forward a series of plans to develop clean and low carbon energy. Wind energy and solar energy are considered to be one of the clean energy sources which can be developed on a large scale and have the prospect of commercial development. Wind and solar complementary power generation systems are the latest achievements in the scientific utilization of natural resources. It is very important and urgent to study the spatial distribution of wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity for large-scale wind and photovoltaic grid connection and absorption. It is necessary to evaluate the distribution of wind and solar energy in China and its development prospects from the point of view of climate. It is difficult to carry out large-scale long-term observation and to obtain synchronous data. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to evaluate the distribution of wind and solar energy in China. A coupled oceanic / atmospheric mesoscale prediction system (COAMPS (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction Sysytem) is used to simulate the wind resource potential and solar radiation distribution in China for one year. Based on the probability theory and COAMPS output results, Using the calculated wind energy and photovoltaic output power to analyze the variation of wind power and photovoltaic output power in China at different time and regional scales. Finally, according to the prediction, under the hypothetical ideal condition, In this paper, the improvement of the abandonment rate of six sub-grids is analyzed. The main research results are as follows: 1. According to the results of COAMPS mesoscale numerical simulation, the distribution regions of wind and solar energy resources in China are obtained. The simulation results show that the coastal areas of southeast China, Shandong and Liaodong are rich in wind resources. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in wind energy resources, and the Sichuan Yungui Plateau and the northwestern Tarim Basin are poor wind resources areas. For the distribution of solar energy resources in China, the simulation results show that the annual solar radiation in northern Ningxia, northern Gansu, southeastern Xinjiang, western Qinghai and western Tibet is relatively large, which belongs to the region rich in solar energy resources. Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Guizhou and other regions with low annual solar radiation, belong to the region of poor solar energy resources. 2. Through reanalysis of the COAMPS simulation output, the wind power and optoelectronic output power are further explored. The results show that when the distance between any two selected points is 2000km, the correlation coefficient of solar radiation energy is higher than 0.7. When the range of distance between the selected points is extended to 5000kmn, the correlation coefficient of solar radiation energy decreases to 0.4, but the correlation of wind speed between the selected points has been lost. When the regional scale is extended from 200krn to 800km, the fluctuation of wind power output is smooth and the fluctuation is decreasing, while the diachronic curve of photovoltaic output power per hour shows a very limited smoothing effect. According to the current level of power consumption and the national planning, the trend of power demand of each sub-grid in China is forecasted in the future. The forecast results show that the northwest power grid has the highest utilization ratio of wind capacity (34.7B), the Northeast Power Grid and North China Power Grid have the highest utilization ratio (32cm), and the central China area has the lowest wind power capacity coefficient (22.33cm). The difference of PV capacity utilization ratio between 14% and 17% is small. At the same time, the forecast results show that, if the major sub-grid of our country are connected to the grid, the wind power capacity can be increased by 5% by 2050, and the abandoned wind rate of the whole system will be reduced from 29% to 3%.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TM61;P49
本文编号：2363749
[Abstract]:As the largest developing country, China's demand for electricity is huge and growing. Facing the increasingly prominent energy crisis and environmental problems, our government has put forward a series of plans to develop clean and low carbon energy. Wind energy and solar energy are considered to be one of the clean energy sources which can be developed on a large scale and have the prospect of commercial development. Wind and solar complementary power generation systems are the latest achievements in the scientific utilization of natural resources. It is very important and urgent to study the spatial distribution of wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity for large-scale wind and photovoltaic grid connection and absorption. It is necessary to evaluate the distribution of wind and solar energy in China and its development prospects from the point of view of climate. It is difficult to carry out large-scale long-term observation and to obtain synchronous data. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to evaluate the distribution of wind and solar energy in China. A coupled oceanic / atmospheric mesoscale prediction system (COAMPS (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction Sysytem) is used to simulate the wind resource potential and solar radiation distribution in China for one year. Based on the probability theory and COAMPS output results, Using the calculated wind energy and photovoltaic output power to analyze the variation of wind power and photovoltaic output power in China at different time and regional scales. Finally, according to the prediction, under the hypothetical ideal condition, In this paper, the improvement of the abandonment rate of six sub-grids is analyzed. The main research results are as follows: 1. According to the results of COAMPS mesoscale numerical simulation, the distribution regions of wind and solar energy resources in China are obtained. The simulation results show that the coastal areas of southeast China, Shandong and Liaodong are rich in wind resources. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in wind energy resources, and the Sichuan Yungui Plateau and the northwestern Tarim Basin are poor wind resources areas. For the distribution of solar energy resources in China, the simulation results show that the annual solar radiation in northern Ningxia, northern Gansu, southeastern Xinjiang, western Qinghai and western Tibet is relatively large, which belongs to the region rich in solar energy resources. Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Guizhou and other regions with low annual solar radiation, belong to the region of poor solar energy resources. 2. Through reanalysis of the COAMPS simulation output, the wind power and optoelectronic output power are further explored. The results show that when the distance between any two selected points is 2000km, the correlation coefficient of solar radiation energy is higher than 0.7. When the range of distance between the selected points is extended to 5000kmn, the correlation coefficient of solar radiation energy decreases to 0.4, but the correlation of wind speed between the selected points has been lost. When the regional scale is extended from 200krn to 800km, the fluctuation of wind power output is smooth and the fluctuation is decreasing, while the diachronic curve of photovoltaic output power per hour shows a very limited smoothing effect. According to the current level of power consumption and the national planning, the trend of power demand of each sub-grid in China is forecasted in the future. The forecast results show that the northwest power grid has the highest utilization ratio of wind capacity (34.7B), the Northeast Power Grid and North China Power Grid have the highest utilization ratio (32cm), and the central China area has the lowest wind power capacity coefficient (22.33cm). The difference of PV capacity utilization ratio between 14% and 17% is small. At the same time, the forecast results show that, if the major sub-grid of our country are connected to the grid, the wind power capacity can be increased by 5% by 2050, and the abandoned wind rate of the whole system will be reduced from 29% to 3%.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TM61;P49
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