降低区域可再生电力能源规划决策失误风险的综合评价方法研究

发布时间：2018-12-11 11:48

【摘要】：采用层次分析法进行区域可再生电力能源规划方案综合评价时,若决策者主观赋予某项指标过大的权重,则会导致决策失误风险增加。研究了决策失误风险产生的原因,进而提出了一种考虑影响集的规划方案评价方法。该方法首先通过分析研究各评价准则及相应的指标与关注集元素的相互作用确定影响集,进而考虑影响集与关注集中所有元素两两之间的相互影响,计算出包含极限相对排序向量的权重系数矩阵,最终得到规划方案的排序向量。以不同CO2减排目标下的区域可再生电力能源规划方案的综合评价为算例,对比了分别采用AHP方法、熵值法、网络分析法以及本文所提方法所得的规划方案评价结果。研究表明,本文所提方法能在评价中充分考虑决策者的评价意愿,在可靠保证评价结果的同时有效减少了计算量,且有效降低了决策失误风险。
[Abstract]:In the comprehensive evaluation of the regional renewable power energy planning scheme by AHP, if the decision-maker gives too much weight to a certain index, the risk of decision error will increase. In this paper, the causes of the risk of decision failure are studied, and a planning scheme evaluation method considering the influence set is put forward. Firstly, the influence set is determined by analyzing and studying the interaction of each evaluation criterion and the corresponding index and the element of the concern set, and then the interaction between all the elements of the impact set and the concern set is considered. The weight coefficient matrix containing the limit relative sorting vector is calculated and the sorting vector of the programming scheme is obtained. Taking the comprehensive evaluation of regional renewable power energy planning schemes under different CO2 emission reduction targets as an example, the evaluation results of planning schemes obtained by using AHP method, entropy method, network analysis method and the methods proposed in this paper are compared. The research shows that the method proposed in this paper can fully take into account the evaluation will of the decision makers in the evaluation process, and can effectively reduce the amount of calculation and the risk of decision failure while ensuring the evaluation results reliably.
【作者单位】：重庆电力公司电力科学研究院;中国电力科学研究院;
【分类号】：F426.61;F224

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