微电网潜在调节能力评估及微网群能量调度方法研究
发布时间：2018-12-15 12:27
【摘要】：目前,小型风／光分布式发电以微电网的形式作为一个双向可调度单元从低压配电网接入,已成为电力新能源技术的一个重要的发展趋势。对配电网(或微网群)而言微电网是作为一个整体双向可控单元来参与电能配送,是配电系统的新成员。微电网作为一个整体可控单元,由于其内部发电单元大都是随机性很强的可再生能源发电电源,所以其整体对外所呈现的源/载特征既具有随机性又与微电网的控制相关,使得外部电网将整个微电网作为一个可控单元进行调度成为难点。也就是说,外电网对微电网内部的发用电设备通常无法直接进行调度和控制,因此,如何量化评估微电网的这种随机源/载特性,如何对微电网入口交换能量进行调度是一个业内亟待解决的问题。本文围绕微电网中随机电源和负载预测、微电网潜在调节能力评估和微网群实时能量优化调度几个方面的理论和方法进行了深入研究,主要成果如下：(1)针对传统预测方法趋势性和波动性不能兼顾的问题,提出了一种基于均生函数-最优子集回归的超短期风电功率预测方法,该方法通过对原始样本序列进行两次差分处理,生成均生函数序列和累加序列,兼顾了风速的趋势性和波动性特点,因而具有较高的预测精度和速度。该方法同样适用解决负荷超短期预测的趋势性和波动性问题,通过仿真计算验证了该方法对超短期风电功率和负荷预测的有效性。(2)基于统计学理论提出了描述微电网可调节能力的4个状态变量,风险备用电量、风险缺电量、已存电量和存电空间,为上级电网对微电网的能量调度奠定了基础。在此基础上提出了微电网潜在调节能力的评估指标和基于状态空间的计算方法。并通过蒙特卡洛仿真实验模拟微电网在各状态空间运行时储能单元对源/载随机性的消纳作用,验证了上述理论的正确性。(3)以微电网可调节能力作为决策变量,首次建立了以微电网入口交换电量为控制变量微网群实时能量优化调度数学模型,提出了将该模型转换为最小费用最大流网流模型的方法。对微网群优化调度指令执行运行效果的仿真模拟实验结果表明,通过微网群优化调度可以实现可再生能源最大化利用,在微网群离网模式下能够使群体总弃能和减载电量最小,并网模式下能够使微网群与上级电网交互电量最小。(4)将提出的基于风险电量的微电网潜在调节能力评估方法和微网群实时能量调度方法应用于课题示范工程广西贵港市三里一中微网群系统,完成了示范微电网潜在调节能力评估和微网群能量调度策略的制定,由此对所提出的上述理论和方法进行了实用验证。
[Abstract]:At present, small wind / light distributed generation is connected from low voltage distribution network as a bidirectional dispatching unit in the form of micro-grid, which has become an important development trend of new power energy technology. For distribution network (or micro-grid group), microgrid is a new member of distribution system, which is a whole bi-directional controllable unit to participate in power distribution. As a whole controllable unit, the internal generating units of microgrid are mostly renewable energy generation power sources with strong randomness, so the source / load characteristics of microgrid are both random and related to the control of microgrid. It is difficult for the external grid to dispatch the whole microgrid as a controllable unit. That is to say, the power generating equipment inside the microgrid can not be directly scheduled and controlled by the foreign power network. Therefore, how to quantitatively evaluate the random source / load characteristics of the microgrid, How to dispatch the energy exchange at the entrance of microgrid is an urgent problem to be solved. In this paper, the theories and methods of stochastic power supply and load prediction, potential regulation capability evaluation and real-time energy scheduling of microgrid group are studied in detail. The main results are as follows: (1) aiming at the problem that the trend and volatility of traditional forecasting methods can not be taken into account, an ultra-short-term wind power prediction method based on average generation function and optimal subset regression is proposed. In this method, the original sample sequence is processed by two differential processes, and the mean generating function sequence and the cumulative sequence are generated, which take into account the trend and volatility of wind speed, so it has high prediction accuracy and speed. This method is also suitable for solving the trend and volatility problems of ultra-short term load forecasting. The simulation results show that the proposed method is effective for ultra-short-term wind power and load forecasting. (2) based on the statistical theory, four state variables, risk reserve power consumption, risk power shortage, are proposed to describe the adjustable capacity of microgrid. The stored energy and storage space lay the foundation for the energy dispatching of the microgrid in higher power grid. On this basis, the evaluation index of potential regulation capability of microgrid and the calculation method based on state space are proposed. The simulation results of Monte Carlo simulation are used to simulate the absorption of the energy storage unit to the source / load randomness when the microgrid is running in each state space, which verifies the correctness of the above theory. (3) the adjustable ability of the microgrid is taken as the decision variable. For the first time, a mathematical model of real-time energy optimal dispatching for microgrid group with the input exchange quantity as control variable is established, and a method for converting this model to the maximum drift-flow model with minimum cost is proposed. The simulation results show that the optimal scheduling of microgrid group can maximize the utilization of renewable energy and minimize the total energy loss and load reduction in the off-grid mode. In the grid-connected mode, the interaction between microgrid group and higher grid can be minimized. (4) the methods of potential regulation ability evaluation and real-time energy dispatching of micro-grid group proposed based on risk electricity quantity are applied to the demonstration project. The system of three li and one medium microgrid in Guigang city, Guangxi, China, The evaluation of potential regulation ability of microgrid and the formulation of energy dispatching strategy for microgrid group are completed. The theory and method mentioned above are verified practically.
【学位授予单位】：中国农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM73
[Abstract]:At present, small wind / light distributed generation is connected from low voltage distribution network as a bidirectional dispatching unit in the form of micro-grid, which has become an important development trend of new power energy technology. For distribution network (or micro-grid group), microgrid is a new member of distribution system, which is a whole bi-directional controllable unit to participate in power distribution. As a whole controllable unit, the internal generating units of microgrid are mostly renewable energy generation power sources with strong randomness, so the source / load characteristics of microgrid are both random and related to the control of microgrid. It is difficult for the external grid to dispatch the whole microgrid as a controllable unit. That is to say, the power generating equipment inside the microgrid can not be directly scheduled and controlled by the foreign power network. Therefore, how to quantitatively evaluate the random source / load characteristics of the microgrid, How to dispatch the energy exchange at the entrance of microgrid is an urgent problem to be solved. In this paper, the theories and methods of stochastic power supply and load prediction, potential regulation capability evaluation and real-time energy scheduling of microgrid group are studied in detail. The main results are as follows: (1) aiming at the problem that the trend and volatility of traditional forecasting methods can not be taken into account, an ultra-short-term wind power prediction method based on average generation function and optimal subset regression is proposed. In this method, the original sample sequence is processed by two differential processes, and the mean generating function sequence and the cumulative sequence are generated, which take into account the trend and volatility of wind speed, so it has high prediction accuracy and speed. This method is also suitable for solving the trend and volatility problems of ultra-short term load forecasting. The simulation results show that the proposed method is effective for ultra-short-term wind power and load forecasting. (2) based on the statistical theory, four state variables, risk reserve power consumption, risk power shortage, are proposed to describe the adjustable capacity of microgrid. The stored energy and storage space lay the foundation for the energy dispatching of the microgrid in higher power grid. On this basis, the evaluation index of potential regulation capability of microgrid and the calculation method based on state space are proposed. The simulation results of Monte Carlo simulation are used to simulate the absorption of the energy storage unit to the source / load randomness when the microgrid is running in each state space, which verifies the correctness of the above theory. (3) the adjustable ability of the microgrid is taken as the decision variable. For the first time, a mathematical model of real-time energy optimal dispatching for microgrid group with the input exchange quantity as control variable is established, and a method for converting this model to the maximum drift-flow model with minimum cost is proposed. The simulation results show that the optimal scheduling of microgrid group can maximize the utilization of renewable energy and minimize the total energy loss and load reduction in the off-grid mode. In the grid-connected mode, the interaction between microgrid group and higher grid can be minimized. (4) the methods of potential regulation ability evaluation and real-time energy dispatching of micro-grid group proposed based on risk electricity quantity are applied to the demonstration project. The system of three li and one medium microgrid in Guigang city, Guangxi, China, The evaluation of potential regulation ability of microgrid and the formulation of energy dispatching strategy for microgrid group are completed. The theory and method mentioned above are verified practically.
【学位授予单位】：中国农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM73
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