榆林市比亚迪光伏电站财务可行性研究
发布时间：2018-12-16 04:12
【摘要】：2014年春节前后,北京、上海、天津、河北、西安等地发生了大面积长时间的雾霾天气,环境污染矛盾突出。因此,改变以前粗放式的经济发展方式、加强生态环境保护、推动能源生产和消费方式变革已成为关系人民生活、建设生态文明刻不容缓的重要任务。国务院总理李克强同志在2014年3月5日十二届全国人大二次会议上作的《政府工作报告》中,要求推进节能减排和污染防治,能源消耗强度下降3.7%,非化石能源发电量比重达到22.3%,鼓励发展风能、太阳能发电。本文通过对榆林市比亚迪300MW光伏电站项目进行可行性分析,为该光伏电站的建设提供了重要依据,具有重要的理论和工程指导意义。 本文分为七章。第一章是研究概述,阐明了研究光伏发电行业的背景,提出了研究榆林市比亚迪光伏电站项目的问题及其意义,构建了研究的框架；第二章是投资项目的市场分析,重点分析了中国和榆林地区电力市场的供给和需求,以及中国光伏电站的发展历程和现状；第三章是太阳能资源分析和发电量计算；第四章是投资项目的预算和报表编制,主要从投资总额、融资成本、财务报表等方而对投资项目做了预算；第五章是投资项目的效益评价，，主要使用投资利润率和利税率、保本点和保利点、投资回收期、净现值和内涵报酬率等财务指标对投资项目进行效益评价,分析项目可行性；第六章是投资项目的风险评价,通过保本和保利程度、单因素和多因素敏感性分析以及矩阵式风险分析,对投资项目风险进行量化分析；第七章是结论和建议,提出本文的主要结论,并从可持续发展的角度给出项目建成后的风险控制及持续经营管理建议。 国务院《能源发展“十二五”规划》要求到2015年,我国非化石能源消费比重提高到11.4%,煤炭消费比重要从2011年的81.56%降低到65%左右,鼓励建设大型光伏发电站。此外,陕西省电力消费量同比增长309.91%,电力消费增长巨大。因此,在国内特别是在陕西省发展光伏发电行业有着广泛的市场发展前景。本项目总装机容量为300MW,建成后可实现销售收入992628.21万元,利润总额562759.8万元,平均每年实现126.87MW容量满负荷发电即可盈亏平衡。本项目投资利润率为8.54%,动态投资回收期(所得税后)为9.24年,全部投资财务净现值(所得税后)为221971.75万元,全部投资内涵报酬率(所得税后)为13.66%,投资效益评价可行。为保证本项目有较好的经济效益,在项目生产经营过程中要采取应对措施避免投资额、发电量和上网电价同时减少(下调)的情况出现,以提高项目抗风险能力,保证项目可行性。本项目生产经营过程中要严格控制光伏组件的质量和成本,积极开拓国外光伏新兴市场,大胆探索光伏互联网金融产品,为促进比亚迪光伏产业可持续发展提供理论和工程经验。
[Abstract]:Around the Spring Festival of 2014, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hebei, Xi'an and other places have a large area of long time haze weather, environmental pollution contradiction is prominent. Therefore, it is an urgent task to change the previous extensive economic development mode, strengthen the protection of ecological environment, and promote the change of energy production and consumption mode, which has a bearing on people's life and the construction of ecological civilization. In his "Government work report" delivered at the second session of the 12th National people's Congress on March 5, 2014, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council called for the promotion of energy conservation, emission reduction and pollution prevention, and the reduction of energy consumption intensity by 3.7 percent. Non-fossil energy generation has reached 22. 3 percent, encouraging the development of wind and solar power generation. Based on the feasibility analysis of the 300MW photovoltaic power station project in Yulin City, this paper provides an important basis for the construction of the photovoltaic power station and has important theoretical and engineering guiding significance. This paper is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is a summary of the research, which clarifies the background of the research on photovoltaic power generation industry, puts forward the research of Yulin city BYD photovoltaic power plant project and its significance, and constructs the framework of the research; The second chapter is the market analysis of investment projects, focusing on the analysis of the supply and demand of the electricity market in China and Yulin region, as well as the development process and current situation of photovoltaic power plants in China, the third chapter is the analysis of solar energy resources and the calculation of power generation. The fourth chapter is the investment project budget and statement preparation, mainly from the total amount of investment, financing costs, financial statements and other aspects of the investment project budget; The fifth chapter is the benefit evaluation of the investment project, mainly using the investment profit rate and the interest tax rate, the capital preservation point and the interest preservation point, the investment recovery period, the net present value and the connotation return rate to carry on the benefit appraisal to the investment project, analyzes the project feasibility; The sixth chapter is the risk evaluation of investment projects, through the degree of capital preservation and interest preservation, single-factor and multi-factor sensitivity analysis and matrix risk analysis, quantitative analysis of investment project risk; The seventh chapter is the conclusion and suggestion, and puts forward the main conclusion of this paper, and from the angle of sustainable development, gives the risk control and the continuing management suggestion after the project is completed. The State Council's 12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development requires that by 2015, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in China will increase to 11.4 percent, and the coal consumption ratio will be reduced from 81.56 percent in 2011 to about 65 percent, encouraging the construction of large-scale photovoltaic power stations. In addition, electricity consumption in Shaanxi Province increased by 309.91% from the same period last year. Therefore, the development of photovoltaic power generation industry in China, especially in Shaanxi Province, has a broad market prospects. The total installed capacity of the project is 300MW. After the completion of the project, the sales income can be 9.9262821 billion yuan, the total profit is 5.627598 billion yuan, and the average 126.87MW capacity of full load power generation can break even every year. The investment profit rate of the project is 8.54, the dynamic investment recovery period (after income tax) is 9.24 years, the net present value of all investments (after income tax) is 2.2197175 billion yuan, and the return rate of all investment intension (after income tax) is 13.66. Investment benefit evaluation is feasible. In order to ensure the better economic benefit of the project, the countermeasures should be taken to avoid the investment, the power generation and the electricity price on the net should be reduced (lowered) at the same time, so as to improve the project's ability to resist risks. Ensure project feasibility. In the course of production and operation of this project, we should strictly control the quality and cost of photovoltaic modules, actively open up foreign photovoltaic emerging markets, and boldly explore photovoltaic Internet financial products. To promote the sustainable development of BYD photovoltaic industry to provide theory and engineering experience.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61;F275
本文编号：2381800
[Abstract]:Around the Spring Festival of 2014, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hebei, Xi'an and other places have a large area of long time haze weather, environmental pollution contradiction is prominent. Therefore, it is an urgent task to change the previous extensive economic development mode, strengthen the protection of ecological environment, and promote the change of energy production and consumption mode, which has a bearing on people's life and the construction of ecological civilization. In his "Government work report" delivered at the second session of the 12th National people's Congress on March 5, 2014, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council called for the promotion of energy conservation, emission reduction and pollution prevention, and the reduction of energy consumption intensity by 3.7 percent. Non-fossil energy generation has reached 22. 3 percent, encouraging the development of wind and solar power generation. Based on the feasibility analysis of the 300MW photovoltaic power station project in Yulin City, this paper provides an important basis for the construction of the photovoltaic power station and has important theoretical and engineering guiding significance. This paper is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is a summary of the research, which clarifies the background of the research on photovoltaic power generation industry, puts forward the research of Yulin city BYD photovoltaic power plant project and its significance, and constructs the framework of the research; The second chapter is the market analysis of investment projects, focusing on the analysis of the supply and demand of the electricity market in China and Yulin region, as well as the development process and current situation of photovoltaic power plants in China, the third chapter is the analysis of solar energy resources and the calculation of power generation. The fourth chapter is the investment project budget and statement preparation, mainly from the total amount of investment, financing costs, financial statements and other aspects of the investment project budget; The fifth chapter is the benefit evaluation of the investment project, mainly using the investment profit rate and the interest tax rate, the capital preservation point and the interest preservation point, the investment recovery period, the net present value and the connotation return rate to carry on the benefit appraisal to the investment project, analyzes the project feasibility; The sixth chapter is the risk evaluation of investment projects, through the degree of capital preservation and interest preservation, single-factor and multi-factor sensitivity analysis and matrix risk analysis, quantitative analysis of investment project risk; The seventh chapter is the conclusion and suggestion, and puts forward the main conclusion of this paper, and from the angle of sustainable development, gives the risk control and the continuing management suggestion after the project is completed. The State Council's 12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development requires that by 2015, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in China will increase to 11.4 percent, and the coal consumption ratio will be reduced from 81.56 percent in 2011 to about 65 percent, encouraging the construction of large-scale photovoltaic power stations. In addition, electricity consumption in Shaanxi Province increased by 309.91% from the same period last year. Therefore, the development of photovoltaic power generation industry in China, especially in Shaanxi Province, has a broad market prospects. The total installed capacity of the project is 300MW. After the completion of the project, the sales income can be 9.9262821 billion yuan, the total profit is 5.627598 billion yuan, and the average 126.87MW capacity of full load power generation can break even every year. The investment profit rate of the project is 8.54, the dynamic investment recovery period (after income tax) is 9.24 years, the net present value of all investments (after income tax) is 2.2197175 billion yuan, and the return rate of all investment intension (after income tax) is 13.66. Investment benefit evaluation is feasible. In order to ensure the better economic benefit of the project, the countermeasures should be taken to avoid the investment, the power generation and the electricity price on the net should be reduced (lowered) at the same time, so as to improve the project's ability to resist risks. Ensure project feasibility. In the course of production and operation of this project, we should strictly control the quality and cost of photovoltaic modules, actively open up foreign photovoltaic emerging markets, and boldly explore photovoltaic Internet financial products. To promote the sustainable development of BYD photovoltaic industry to provide theory and engineering experience.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61;F275
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 阎海燕;徐波;徐逸飞;;我国光伏产业发展问题探讨——兼论太阳能电池组件价格变动及其影响[J];价格理论与实践;2010年07期
本文编号：2381800
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