基于改进基尼系数的水电站年最优发电量变化规律研究

发布时间：2018-12-28 08:29

【摘要】：针对(不完全)年调节水电站优化调度中年最优发电量随径流参数的变化规律不明晰的研究现状,本文从提出时空两方面描述径流年内分配均匀度的改进基尼系数入手,揭示了年径流量与改进基尼系数相互独立的数学规律。采取以年径流量和改进基尼系数为随机变量的径流生成方法,再结合确定性优化调度数学模型开展水电站中长期优化调度研究,这种"随机-确定"相结合的优化方法有效地避免了水电站中长期随机优化调度中径流描述"维数灾"问题。基于单因子回归分析提取了年最优发电量基点,并以此为基础进行年最优发电量与年径流量和改进基尼系数之间的联合变化规律研究。实例应用表明,三峡水电站年最优发电量与改进基尼系数和年平均流量之间具有较好的准线性乘积关系,其年最优发电量计算方法具有很高的精度,为水电站年最优发电量的计算提供了一种简便、快速和高精度的方法。
[Abstract]:In view of the lack of clear research on the variation law of midlife optimal power generation with runoff parameters in the optimal regulation of annual regulation hydropower stations, this paper presents an improved Gini coefficient to describe the distribution uniformity of runoff in the year from two aspects of time and space. The mathematical law of the independence of annual runoff and improved Gini coefficient is revealed. Taking the annual runoff and the improved Gini coefficient as the random variables, the runoff generation method is adopted, and combined with the deterministic mathematical model of optimal dispatching, the long-term optimal operation of hydropower stations is studied. The combination of "random-deterministic" optimization method effectively avoids the problem of "dimensionality disaster" of runoff description in the long-term stochastic optimal operation of hydropower stations. Based on the single factor regression analysis, the basic points of the annual optimal power generation are extracted, and the joint variation law between the annual optimal electricity generation and the annual runoff and the improved Gini coefficient is studied. The practical application shows that there is a good quasi-linear product relationship between the annual optimal output of the three Gorges Hydropower Station and the improved Gini coefficient and the annual average discharge, and the calculation method of the annual optimal power generation has a high accuracy. This paper provides a simple, fast and high precision method for the calculation of the annual optimal power generation of hydropower stations.
【作者单位】：武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;中国长江电力股份有限公司三峡水利枢纽梯级调度通信中心;
【基金】：国家高技术研究发展计划(“863”计划)项目(2013BAA02B01) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51479141)
【分类号】：TV737

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