基于气象测量场的爬坡时段区域风功率预测

发布时间：2019-02-15 00:18

【摘要】：随着大规模风电接入电网,风电爬坡事件的风险不断增大,提高爬坡时段风功率预测精度对电网安全经济运行具有重要作用。提出了一种基于气象测量场的爬坡时段区域风功率预测方法。考虑爬坡时段风速场的动态变化,利用经验正交函数分解,将风速资料阵分解成不同空间模态和主分量,通过多元非线性逐步回归方法建立风速场主分量和区域风功率间的映射关系。考虑风速预测误差,采用区间正交函数分解,将上述模型扩展为处理非确定性数据的预测方法。实际区域风功率预测结果表明,所提出的方法能够显著提高风电爬坡时段风功率预测的精度,对存在风速预测误差的情况具有较强的鲁棒性。
[Abstract]:With the large-scale wind power connected to the power grid, the risk of wind power climbing is increasing. Improving the prediction accuracy of wind power during the climbing period plays an important role in the safe and economic operation of the power grid. A prediction method of wind power in climbing region based on meteorological measurement field is presented in this paper. Considering the dynamic change of wind speed field during slope climbing, the wind speed data matrix is decomposed into different spatial modes and principal components by empirical orthogonal function decomposition. The mapping relationship between the rancher component of wind speed and regional wind power is established by multivariate nonlinear stepwise regression method. Considering the wind speed prediction error, the interval orthogonal function decomposition is used to extend the above model to deal with uncertain data. The actual wind power prediction results show that the proposed method can significantly improve the accuracy of wind power prediction during wind power climbing, and is robust to the case where there is a wind speed prediction error.
【作者单位】：电网智能化调度与控制教育部重点实验室(山东大学);
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51207082,51177093) 国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2011AA05A101)~~
【分类号】：TM614

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