大型风电项目风险评价及规避策略研究

发布时间：2019-03-07 09:50

【摘要】：在能源形势日趋严峻、传统能源日渐枯竭、环境污染日益严重的情况下,大力发展风电可再生清洁能源具有重要的经济意义和社会意义。许多国家把风电作为改善能源结构、应对气候变化的重要选择。近年来,我国风电装机容量增长迅速,已取代美国成为世界第一风电大国。风电已经成为中国经济发展的亮点,并具备主导世界市场的潜能,在未来几年中国风力发电将迎来历史上的建设高潮。风电行业蓬勃发展的同时,面临的风险也不容小觑。对风电项目风险管理进行研究,能够为提高风电项目管理的科学性和系统性,规避风险损失,提高社会和经济效益提供巨大保障。本文通过风险管理理论、风险识别、风险评价、风险规避策略等管理流程,对大型风电项目按照造价风险、全寿命周期各阶段工作内容面临的风险两条主线,进行了分析研究。从风险评价方法上,本文分别就基于蒙特卡洛的项目造价风险、基于模糊理论与专家意见的全寿命周期各阶段工作内容面临的风险、基于动态盈亏平衡的经济性进行了相应的风险评价,得出较为实际的评价结果。工程造价风险受风电机组购买价格影响最大,所以随着风电机组国产化程度的提高以及产能的快速增长,主机设备的价格不断下降,对降低单位千瓦。造价,控制工程造价风险起到很好的保障作用。在风电蓬勃发展的同时,对项目进行必要全寿命周期各阶段工作内容风险规避措施,有力减少了事故隐患,降低了风险发生的几率和风险损失,保障了生产的安全运行、人员的人身安全,减小了经济损失。通过动态盈亏平衡的大型风电项目经济性评价得出的项目的盈亏平衡点的售电量及敏感因素影响程度,为该风电项目的市场生存能力提供了指标参考。
[Abstract]:With the increasingly severe energy situation, the depletion of traditional energy sources and the increasingly serious environmental pollution, it is of great economic and social significance to develop the renewable and clean energy of wind power. Many countries use wind power as an important alternative to addressing climate change by improving their energy structures. In recent years, the installed capacity of wind power in China has grown rapidly, and has replaced the United States as the world's largest wind power country. Wind power has become the bright spot of China's economic development, and has the potential to dominate the world market. In the next few years, wind power generation in China will usher in a historic climax of construction. Wind power industry is booming at the same time, the risks faced should not be underestimated. The research on risk management of wind power project can provide great guarantee for improving scientific and systematic management of wind power project, avoiding risk loss and improving social and economic benefits. Based on the risk management theory, risk identification, risk assessment, risk aversion strategy and other management processes, this paper analyzes and studies the risks faced by large-scale wind power projects in accordance with the cost risk and the work content of each stage of the whole life cycle. In terms of risk assessment method, this paper deals with the risks faced by the project cost risk based on Monte Carlo and the work content of each stage of life cycle based on fuzzy theory and expert opinion. Based on the dynamic profit and break-even economy, the corresponding risk evaluation is carried out, and the practical evaluation results are obtained. The project cost risk is most affected by the purchase price of wind turbine, so with the improvement of wind turbine localization and the rapid growth of production capacity, the price of mainframe equipment continues to decline, to reduce the unit kilowatt. Cost, control project cost risk plays a very good role in ensuring. With the vigorous development of wind power, the necessary risk avoidance measures for all phases of the life cycle of the project are carried out to effectively reduce the hidden dangers of accidents, reduce the probability of risk occurrence and risk loss, and ensure the safe operation of production. The personal safety of the personnel reduces the economic loss. Through the economic evaluation of large-scale wind power project with dynamic profit and break-even balance, the influence degree of electricity sales and sensitive factors on the profit-break-even point of the project is obtained, which provides an index reference for the market viability of the wind power project.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM614

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