基于健康状态的电力变压器可靠性和经济性寿命评估研究

发布时间：2019-05-22 15:57

【摘要】：当前电力企业对变压器检修、退运计划制定的关注点多集中于变压器的可靠性，常出现过修、提前退役的现象，导致了巨大的资源浪费。现有的变压器绝缘状态评估方法未能很好解决评估因素不相容、影响程度不相同的问题，而对于变压器的可靠性寿命和经济性寿命评估研究较少。因此，需要综合考虑变压器运行的可靠性和经济性，对变压器进行绝缘状态评估和可靠性寿命及经济性寿命评估，以便制定恰当的检修、退运计划，从而提高电力企业的管理水平。所以，本课题的研究具有一定的学术意义和工程价值。本文优选了与变压器状态紧密相关的特征量并建立了绝缘状态评价体系，在此基础上研究了基于集对分析和证据理论融合的变压器绝缘状态评估方法；以变压器老化规律为基础，建立了变压器的健康指数计算模型和故障概率推算模型；在考虑运行规律和单台变压器影响的基础上，建立了变压器可靠性寿命评估模型；最后，在故障率曲线的基础上，结合变压器的相关经济因素，计算了检修、更换情况下的年均净收益，并建立了变压器经济性寿命模型。论文所取得的主要创新性成果有： ①在建立变压器绝缘状态评估指标体系的基础上，确定了指标间的权重和指标缺失时权重调整方法，采用集对分析理论处理指标的模糊性，对不同因子状态信息进行证据融合，最终建立了变压器绝缘状态评估模型，并通过实例分析验证了模型的有效性。 ②将变压器的绝缘状态、运行环境、检修记录和附件情况等因素进行综合考虑，结合变压器老化规律，分别建立了变压器的综合健康指数和故障概率计算模型；结合统计规律及单台变压器的影响，最终建立了变压器的可靠性寿命评估模型，通过实例验证了模型的有效性。 ③分析了与变压器相关的经济要素，分别对供电收入、运行维护成本、事故风险成本、广义折旧成本和直接检修成本进行了计算，建立了检修、更换情况下的年均净收益模型，以年均净收益最大为判据，建立了变压器的经济寿命评估模型。通过实例研究，初步证明了该模型的有效性。
[Abstract]:In the current electric power enterprise, the focus on the transformer overhaul and withdrawal plan is more concentrated on the reliability of the transformer, and the phenomenon of overrepair and early retirement has led to a huge resource waste. The existing method for evaluating the insulation state of the transformer fails to solve the problem that the evaluation factors are not compatible and the degree of influence is different, and the reliability life and the economic life evaluation of the transformer are less. Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the reliability and economy of the operation of the transformer, to evaluate the insulation state of the transformer and to evaluate the reliability life and the economic life, so as to develop the proper maintenance and retirement plan, so as to improve the management level of the electric power enterprise. Therefore, the research of the subject has certain academic significance and engineering value. In this paper, the characteristic quantity which is closely related to the state of the transformer and the evaluation system of the insulation state are set up. On this basis, the method for evaluating the insulation state of the transformer based on the fusion of the analysis of the transformer and the theory of evidence is studied, and the aging rule of the transformer is based on the aging rule of the transformer. In this paper, the health index calculation model and the failure probability estimation model of the transformer are established; on the basis of considering the operation rule and the influence of a single transformer, the reliability life evaluation model of the transformer is established; and finally, on the basis of the failure rate curve, the relevant economic factors of the transformer are combined In addition, the average annual net income of the overhaul and replacement is calculated, and the economic life mode of the transformer is established. C. Key innovative results achieved in the paper In the paper, based on the establishment of the evaluation index system of the insulation state of the transformer, the weight adjustment method for the weight and the index loss among the indexes is determined, and the data set is used to process the index. In this paper, the evaluation model of the insulation state of the transformer is established, and the model is verified by the case analysis. The effectiveness of the transformer is to comprehensively consider the factors such as the insulation status of the transformer, the operating environment, the maintenance record and the accessory condition. In combination with the aging rule of the transformer, the comprehensive health index and the failure probability calculation model of the transformer are respectively established, and the statistical law and the single transformer are combined. In this paper, the reliability life evaluation model of the transformer is established, and the model is verified by the examples. The efficiency of the model is analyzed. The economic factors related to the transformer are analyzed. The cost of power supply, operation and maintenance, accident risk, generalized depreciation cost and direct maintenance cost are calculated. The annual net profit model of the maintenance and replacement is established, and the average annual net profit model is established. The maximum benefit is the criterion, and the transfects of the transformer are established. The model of economic life assessment. It is proved by the case study.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM41

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