火山硫酸盐气溶胶对东亚季风降水的影响

发布时间：2018-03-22 03:05

本文选题：硫酸盐气溶胶　切入点：东亚季风降水　出处：《浙江大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：全球变暖是21世纪人类面临的最严峻挑战之一。然而在全球范围达成科学、经济、公平的温室气体减排方案一直是应对气候变化工作的焦点和难点。作为应对气候变化危机的后备计划,地球工程可能导致亚非洲季风减弱,威胁世界近2/3人口的生存和发展。中国位于东亚季风区,气候的变化和人们的生产生活备受季风降水的影响。作为自然类似物的火山硫酸盐气溶胶为我们了解平流层地球工程对东亚季风降水的影响提供了重要的参考。本研究利用两套火山重建指数、一套树轮降水重建数据MADA、一套历史记录汇编的灾害指数,分析了过去700年不同类型的火山事件对中国季风降水的时空分布格局的影响。叠加分析法(SEA)和蒙特卡洛模型检验结果显示北半球火山硫酸盐气溶胶的注入会导致中国降水持续两到三年的显著减少,甚至可能导致中国发生干旱事件,且注入的气溶胶量越多,这种干旱效应越明显。空间叠加分析的结果显示：1)在火山气溶胶注入平流层的量超过一至两倍皮纳图博火山注入量后的0-2年里,中国东部显著干旱的地区呈现往南移的趋势；2)在火山气溶胶注入后的2-5年里,中国东北和西北地区大面积干旱化。而当火山气溶胶只注入南半球平流层后,则可能使中国地区尤其是东北和西北地区湿润化。为了验证以上结果和评估模型的模拟能力以进行机理分析,本研究进一步应用MADA和四套模型模拟数据开展了过去550年各类火山事件对东亚夏季季风降水的时空影响分析。时间序列的SEA结果显示,在四个模型模拟下,东亚夏季季风降水对北半球三类火山事件的响应与MADA基本一致,在火山硫酸盐气溶胶注入当年和注入后第一年都显著下降,但在南半球火山气溶胶后,不同模型的响应情况不同。空间分布的SEA结果显示,不同模型对南、北半球火山气溶胶的响应存在较大的差异,差异产生的原因还有待进一步探索和进行机理分析。因此,基于当代气候变化和频发的水旱灾害的基本事实,本研究的结论对了解硫酸盐气溶胶的气候效应提供了长时间尺度的参考,从历史角度填补了认识的空白,同时可为我们区分工业革命以来自然和人为因素对气候变化的影响提供参考。此外,本研究的结论对平流层气溶胶工程的气候效应具有重大理论借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:Global warming is one of the most serious challenges facing mankind in the 21st century. A fair greenhouse gas abatement programme has been the focus and difficulty of efforts to tackle climate change. As a backup plan to the climate change crisis, geoengineering could lead to the weakening of the monsoon in Asia and Africa. Threatening the survival and development of nearly two-thirds of the world's population. China is located in the East Asian monsoon region, The climate change and people's production and life are influenced by the monsoon precipitation. The volcanic sulfate aerosol, as a natural analogue, provides an important reference for us to understand the influence of stratospheric geo-engineering on the monsoon precipitation in East Asia. In this study, two sets of volcanic reconstruction indices were used. A set of tree ring precipitation reconstruction data MADAA, a set of historical records compiled disaster index, The effects of different types of volcanic events over the past 700 years on the temporal and spatial distribution patterns of monsoon precipitation in China are analyzed. The results of superposition analysis (SEAA) and Monte Carlo model test show that the injection of volcanic sulfate aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere will result in. The precipitation in China has decreased significantly for two to three years. It could even lead to a drought in China, and the more aerosols injected, The more obvious this drought effect is, the more significant the spatial superposition analysis shows that in the 0-2 years since volcanic aerosols have been injected into the stratosphere by more than one to two times the amount injected into the Pinatubo volcano, During the 2-5 years after volcanic aerosol injection, large areas of northeast and northwest China became arid. However, when volcanic aerosols were injected into the stratosphere of the southern hemisphere, In order to verify the above results and evaluate the simulation ability of the model for mechanism analysis, In this study, the temporal and spatial effects of various volcanic events on the summer monsoon precipitation in East Asia over the past 550 years were further analyzed by using MADA and four sets of model simulation data. The SEA results of the time series show that, under the four models, The response of East Asia summer monsoon precipitation to three types of volcanic events in the Northern Hemisphere is basically the same as that of MADA. It decreased significantly in the year and the first year after the volcanic sulfate aerosol injection, but after the volcanic aerosol injection in the Southern Hemisphere, The responses of different models are different. The spatial distribution of SEA results show that the responses of different models to volcanic aerosols in the northern and southern hemispheres are quite different, and the causes of the differences need further exploration and mechanism analysis. Based on the basic facts of contemporary climate change and frequent flood and drought disasters, the conclusions of this study provide a long time scale reference for understanding the climate effects of sulfate aerosols, and fill the gaps in understanding from the historical point of view. At the same time, it can provide a reference for us to distinguish the impacts of natural and man-made factors on climate change since the Industrial Revolution. In addition, the conclusion of this study is of great theoretical significance for the climatic effects of stratospheric aerosol engineering.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P426.6;P317.3

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