北京市南窖小流域泥石流灾害预测预警研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 04:18

本文选题：泥石流　切入点：危险性评价　出处：《吉林大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：泥石流是山区常发生的一种地质灾害。北京山区人口密度大,泥石流灾害较为频繁,严重威胁当地居民和到访游客的人身与财产安全。针对南窖小流域的泥石流预测预警研究,可为小流域提供有针对性的预测预警信息。论文以北京市房山区南窖小流域为研究对象,在野外地质调查基础上,研究南窖小流域沟谷发育特征,统计并估算流域内松散物源储量。选取评价泥石流危险性的指标,采用层次分析法、熵值法和基于博弈论的组合赋权法分别获得指标的主观、客观和组合权重值。再由万有引力搜索算法优化的模糊C均值聚类方法,获得小流域内7个沟谷(包括6条一级支沟及主沟形成区段)的泥石流危险性分级结果。借助GIS工具对南窖小流域进行危险性分区、易损性分区以及风险性分区。将野外地质描述、泥石流特征评判、流域内7个沟谷的泥石流危险性评价和全流域的泥石流风险性分区作为南窖小流域泥石流中长期预测信息。针对自然界复杂的降雨情况提出“一个降雨过程”概念。利用改进的前期有效降雨公式计算前期有效降雨量。在分析历史降雨数据和泥石流灾害资料的基础上,构建泥石流降雨总量临界线,可实现每分钟不间断的连续预警。通过布置在小流域内的各类监测设备所组成的无线传感器网络,实时获取小流域内的降雨量、典型物源的含水率和孔隙水压力、泥石流次声信号、泥位信息、泥石流视频影像等数据。采用递进式泥石流分级预警系统,从以气象恶化提醒为主的短期预警,到以泥石流降雨总量临界线为核心,辅助设备为补充的临灾预警,实现了递进式的泥石流分级预警目标,为居民和游客的安全撤离争取宝贵时间。论文共分8章,第1章为绪论,介绍了选题依据、研究意义、总结国内外研究现状、并介绍论文内容、技术路线及主要创新点。第2章从地形地貌、地层岩性、地质构造、地震、气象水文和植被条件六个方面介绍了南窖小流域发育地质背景。第3章详细介绍了南窖小流域沟谷地质特征。第4章介绍了南窖小流域泥石流特征评判及运动特征。第5章介绍了南窖小流域内7个沟谷的危险性评价和全流域的泥石流风险性分区。第6章介绍了泥石流短临预警的构建,包括短期预警和临灾预警。提出“一个降雨过程”概念,构建了泥石流降雨总量临界线。第7章介绍了泥石流短临预警的实施,提出递进式泥石流分级预警思路及预警的解除。第8章为结论,总结了论文所有内容。
[Abstract]:Debris flow is a kind of geological hazard that often occurs in mountainous area. Because of its high population density and frequent debris flow disaster, it seriously threatens the personal and property safety of local residents and visitors. The prediction and early warning study of debris flow in Nanjiao small watershed, This paper takes the Nanjiao small watershed in Fangshan District of Beijing as the research object and studies the characteristics of valley development in Nanjiao small watershed on the basis of field geological survey. The indexes of evaluating debris flow risk are selected, and the subjective indexes are obtained by AHP, entropy method and combined weighting method based on game theory, respectively. Objective and combined weights. Then the fuzzy C-means clustering method, which is optimized by the universal gravity search algorithm, The risk classification results of debris flow in 7 gully valleys (including 6 primary branch gullies and main gully forming sections) in small watershed were obtained. The risk zoning of Nanjiao small watershed was carried out by means of GIS tool. Vulnerability zoning and risk zoning. Field geological description, debris flow characteristics evaluation, The risk assessment of debris flow in seven valleys and the risk zoning of debris flow in the whole basin are used as the medium and long term prediction information of debris flow in Nanjiao small watershed. A summary of "one rainfall process" is put forward in view of the complicated rainfall situation in nature. Based on the analysis of historical rainfall data and debris flow disaster data, The critical line of debris flow rainfall amount can be constructed to realize continuous early warning every minute. The rainfall in small watershed can be obtained in real time by wireless sensor network composed of various monitoring devices arranged in small watershed. The moisture content and pore water pressure of typical source, infrasound signal of debris flow, mud level information, video image of debris flow and so on. By using the critical line of debris flow rainfall as the core and auxiliary equipment as the supplement, the paper realizes the progressive debris flow classification warning goal, and buys valuable time for the safe evacuation of residents and tourists. The paper is divided into 8 chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, which introduces the basis and significance of the topic, summarizes the current research situation at home and abroad, and introduces the content, technical route and main innovation points of the thesis. Chapter 2 includes topography and geomorphology, stratigraphic lithology, geological structure, earthquake, etc. The geological background of Nanjiao small watershed is introduced from six aspects of meteorological, hydrology and vegetation conditions. Chapter 3 introduces the geological characteristics of the valley in Nanjiao small watershed in detail, and chapter 4 introduces the characteristics of debris flow in Nanjiao small watershed and its special features of movement. Chapter 5 introduces the risk assessment of seven gullies in Nanjiao small watershed and the risk zoning of debris flow in the whole basin. Chapter 6 introduces the construction of short-impending early warning of debris flow. The concept of "one rainfall process" is put forward, and the critical line of total amount of debris flow rainfall is constructed. Chapter 7 introduces the implementation of short-impending early warning of debris flow. This paper puts forward the idea of progressive debris flow classification early warning and its release. Chapter 8 is the conclusion and summarizes all the contents of the paper.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P642.23

【参考文献】