考虑知识不确定性的核电厂地震易损性概率模型研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 20:55

本文选题：地震易损性　切入点：知识不确定性　出处：《原子能科学技术》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：考虑知识不确定性的地震易损性模型公式是核电厂地震易损性分析的理论基础,包括具有置信度的易损性公式和平均值易损性公式。本文分别对两类公式进行了推导,分析了公式中参数的相互关系,研究了基于两类易损性公式分别得到的高置信度低失效概率值的关系。分析结果表明:基于易损性的不确定性角度的公式推导丰富了具有置信度易损性公式的内涵;对于具有置信度的易损性模型公式,失效概率与置信度服从某种分布,且两类不确定性对失效概率具有不同影响;两类不确定性的对数标准差取值相近时,两类高置信度低失效概率能力值近似相等。
[Abstract]:The formula of seismic vulnerability model considering knowledge uncertainty is the theoretical basis of seismic vulnerability analysis for nuclear power plants, including the formula of vulnerability with confidence and the formula of mean value vulnerability. In this paper, two kinds of formulas are derived respectively. The relationship between the parameters in the formula is analyzed. The relationship of high confidence and low failure probability based on two kinds of vulnerability formulas is studied. The results show that the formula derived from uncertainty angle of vulnerability enriches the connotation of the formula with confidence degree of vulnerability. For the formula of vulnerability model with confidence degree, the failure probability and confidence dress are distributed from a certain degree, and the two kinds of uncertainties have different effects on the failure probability, and when the logarithmic standard deviation of the two kinds of uncertainties is similar, The two classes of high confidence and low failure probability ability are approximately equal.
【作者单位】：结构工程灾变与控制教育部重点实验室(哈尔滨工业大学);哈尔滨工业大学土木工程学院;同济大学土木工程防灾国家重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(91315301,51378162,51678209) 国家科技支撑计划课题资助项目(2013BAJ08B01) 土木工程防灾国家重点实验室开放课题基金资助项目(SLDRCE12-MB-04)
【分类号】：P315.9;TM623

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