基于GIS的雷波县地质灾害风险性评价研究

发布时间：2018-04-02 10:04

本文选题：雷波县　切入点：地质灾害　出处：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：雷波县隶属凉山彝族自治州,地处四川省西南边缘,金沙江下游北岸,四川盆地与云贵高原过渡地带,为典型山地县,境内滑坡、泥石流、崩塌、不稳定斜坡等地质灾害发育,给当地人民的生命财产造成了巨大损失,严重制约着经济的发展。地质灾害风险性评价不仅包括了致灾体危险性评估的内容,而且还包括了承灾体易损性评估及抗灾能力评估的内容,对地质灾害的防治具有重要的理论和实际意义。本文以雷波县为研究目标,通过对该区域的野外地质灾害调查和相关资料的收集,确定了该区的风险性评价模型,即风险=危险性×易损性/抗灾能力。首先对研究区进行了危险性评价,采用了网格剖分单元,利用层次分析法和模糊综合评判法完成雷波县的地质灾害危险性评价。其次,以乡镇为研究单元,利用层次分析和灰色聚类综合评判,对研究区进行了地质灾害易损性评价。通过专家打分建立抗灾能力评价数学模型,完成地质灾害抗灾能力评价。最后依据完成的危险性评价、易损性评价和抗灾能力评价,利用GIS软件的叠加分析功能,完成雷波县的地质灾害风险性区划。依据雷波县的风险性评价结果,提出合理的地质灾害防治建议。本次研究主要有以下成果:(1)研究区主要发育的地质灾害有滑坡、泥石流、崩塌、不稳定斜坡和塌岸。其中滑坡141处,占灾害总数41.35%,泥石流81处,占灾害总数24.34%,崩塌74处,占灾害总数21.7%,不稳定斜坡31处,占灾害总数9.09%,塌岸12处,占灾害总数3.52%。(2)在搞清楚研究区地质条件的情况下,从基础因素、诱发因素、灾害历史三个方面构建了危险性评价体系。利用yahhp软件求得评价因子权重,根据模糊综合评价模型,建立了梯形隶属度函数,构造了模糊综合评判矩阵,对评价单元进行了综合评判。然后将研究区划分为高危险性区、中危险区和低危险区(3)在收集调查了雷波县社会经济等发展状况的前提下,从人口易损性、物质经济易损性和资源环境易损性三个方面构建研究区易损性评价体系。根据灰色聚类综合评价模型,建立了白化权函数,确定了评价单元的灰类数。然后将研究区划分为高易损区、中等易损区以及低易损区。(4)根据实际情况,选取了预警监测点和财政收入评价指标,根据数学模型,完成了研究区抗灾能力区划。以危险性区划、易损性区划以及抗灾能力区划为基础,利用GIS的空间分析叠加功能,最终完成了雷波县地质灾害风险性区划。并结合完成的危险性区划和风险性区划,提出了防治规划建议。
[Abstract]:Leibo County under the Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan province is located in the southwest edge of the lower reaches of the Jinsha River, the north shore, the transition zone of Sichuan basin and Yunnan Guizhou Plateau, is a typical mountainous county territory, landslide, collapse, debris flow, unstable slope development and other geological disasters, causing huge losses to the local people's lives and property, seriously restricts the development of the economy risk assessment of geological disasters include not only the object to cause disaster risk assessment content, but also includes the disaster assessment and disaster evaluation, has important theoretical and practical significance for the prevention and control of geological disasters. This paper takes Leibo County as the research object, through field geological disasters in the region the investigation and collection of relevant materials, determine the risk assessment of the model, i.e. = Hazard Risk * vulnerability / resilience. Firstly, the hazard evaluation, using the network Lattice mesh, using AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to complete the risk assessment of geological hazards in Leibo county. Secondly, to the township as the research unit, using AHP and grey clustering comprehensive evaluation, the vulnerability assessment of geological disasters in the study area. Through the establishment of expert scoring resilience evaluation mathematical model, complete geology disaster risk assessment capability evaluation. Finally on the basis of the completion, vulnerability assessment and anti disaster ability, using the superposition analysis function of GIS software, to complete the risk of geological disasters in Leibo County zoning. According to the risk assessment results of Leibo County, put forward reasonable suggestions for prevention and control of geological disasters. The main research results are as follows: (1) geological disasters mainly developed in the study area are landslide, debris flow, landslide, slope instability and collapse. Including 141 landslides, debris flow disasters accounted for 41.35% of the total number of 81, accounting for. 24.34% of the total number of disasters, collapse of 74, accounting for 21.7% of the total number of disasters, 31 unstable slopes, accounting for 9.09% of the total number of disasters, the collapse of 12, accounting for 3.52%. of the total disaster (2) in the clear geological conditions in the study area under the condition of induced from basic factors, factors, three aspects to construct the risk of disaster history the evaluation system is obtained. The weights of evaluation factor by using the yahhp software, according to the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, established the trapezoid membership function, constructs the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix of evaluation unit for comprehensive evaluation. Then the study area is divided into high risk areas in the danger zone and low risk area (3) was investigated in the collection the premise of the development situation of Leibo county economy and society, the population vulnerability, vulnerability assessment system construction research area three material economic vulnerability and resource environment vulnerability. According to the comprehensive evaluation of grey clustering model, established the whitenization weight function Sure, the grey number evaluation unit. Then the study area is divided into a high vulnerability area, medium area of vulnerability and low vulnerability area. (4) according to the actual situation, from the early warning monitoring point and financial income evaluation index, according to the mathematical model, completed the study area. The resilience of zoning of hazard zonation, vulnerability zoning zoning and anti disaster ability as the foundation, the use of GIS spatial overlay analysis function, the final completion of the Leibo county's geological disaster risk zoning. And combined with the completion of the risk zoning and risk zoning, put forward prevention planning proposal.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P694

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