冰碛湖泥石流灾害：危险性评价与数值模拟

发布时间：2018-05-03 05:05

本文选题：冰碛湖泥石流 + 突变级数综合评价法　；参考：《吉林大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：冰碛湖泥石流是我国西藏喜马拉雅山地区的重大而典型的地质灾害,冰碛湖溃决时湖水携带大量溃口附近的冰碛物沿河道沟谷高速向下游运移,危害沿岸及下游居民的生命财产安全。因此,对冰碛湖泥石流进行危险性评价及危害度划分是十分必要的。论文以喜马拉雅山地区的冰碛湖为研究对象,采用遥感手段,结合收集的资料,对研究区的20个冰碛湖进行了详细调查,选取冰碛湖溃决危险性的主要影响因素,建立冰碛湖溃决危险性评价体系,采用突变级数综合评判法对冰碛湖溃决危险性进行了分级。通过对样本资料的回归分析建立了冰碛湖泥石流体积和淹没危害区面积、冰碛湖泥石流体积与堆积区的横断面积之间的数学模型,并运用改进的LAHARZ软件,选取软件运行所需的参数,对桑旺错和嘉龙湖两个典型冰碛湖泥石流的危害范围进行了预测,该预测结果可以作为冰碛湖泥石流预防工作的一个参考。论文共分七个章节,第一章为国内外研究现状,介绍了国内外对冰碛湖溃决危险性的评判方法,以及对泥石流的数值模拟进展,并阐述了论文的研究内容及技术路线,提出了论文的创新点。第二章为研究区的区域概况,主要介绍了研究区自然地理条件,地形地貌、气象水文、地质构造以及新构造活动等,侧面说明研究区属于地质灾害多发地区,且其独特的地质环境为冰碛湖泥石流的发生和发展提供了先决条件。第三章主要介绍了冰碛湖的分布特征及冰碛湖泥石流的基本特征,说明了冰碛湖的溃决是泥石流发生的水力条件。第四章为冰碛湖溃决危险性评价,总结收集影响冰碛湖稳定性的影响因素,运用非线性方法中的突变级数综合评判法对选取的冰碛湖样本进行危险性评价。第五章为冰碛湖泥石流淹没危害区数学模型的推导和建立,通过遥感手段,对18个冰碛湖的特征进行详细介绍,运用线性回归模型,得到了冰碛湖泥石流体积与淹没危害区面积、冰碛湖泥石流体积与危害区横截面积之间的数学关系,建立了数学模型。第六章对桑旺错冰碛湖和嘉龙湖冰碛湖的泥石流淹没危害区域进行了数值模拟,运用LAHARZ软件,计算所需参数,得到可视化的直观结果,预测出这两个冰碛湖在不同溃决情况下的危害区范围。第七章为结论,对论文所做工作进行总结,得出结论。
[Abstract]:Moraine lake debris flow is a major and typical geological hazard in the Himalayan region of Tibet. During the break of the moraine lake, the water of the moraine lake carries a large amount of moraine moving along the channel and valley along the river channel at high speed to the lower reaches. Endangers the life and property safety of coastal and downstream residents. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the hazard and classify the hazard degree of debris flow in moraine lake. In this paper, 20 moraine lakes in the Himalayan region were investigated in detail by remote sensing and data collected, and the main influencing factors of the collapse risk of moraine lakes were selected. The risk assessment system of moraine lake outburst is established, and the risk of collapse of moraine lake is classified by the method of catastrophe series comprehensive evaluation. Based on the regression analysis of the sample data, the mathematical models of debris flow volume and the area of submerged hazard area, the volume of debris flow in moraine lake and the cross-sectional area of accumulation area are established, and the improved LAHARZ software is used. Selecting the parameters needed for the operation of the software, the hazard range of debris flow in two typical moraine lakes, Sanwangqiao and Jialong Lake, is forecasted, which can be used as a reference for the prevention of debris flow in moraine lake. The paper is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is the current situation of research at home and abroad. It introduces the evaluation methods of the collapse risk of moraine lake at home and abroad, and the progress of numerical simulation of debris flow, and expounds the research content and technical route of the paper. The innovation points of the thesis are put forward. The second chapter is the regional survey of the study area, which mainly introduces the natural geographical conditions, topography, hydrology, geological structure and neotectonic activities in the study area. Its unique geological environment provides a prerequisite for the occurrence and development of debris flow in moraine lake. The third chapter mainly introduces the distribution characteristics of moraine lake and the basic characteristics of debris flow in moraine lake, which shows that the collapse of moraine lake is the hydraulic condition of debris flow. The fourth chapter is the risk assessment of moraine lake outburst, summarizes the influence factors that affect the stability of the moraine lake, and evaluates the risk of the selected moraine lake samples by using the catastrophe series comprehensive evaluation method in the nonlinear method. The fifth chapter is the derivation and establishment of mathematical model of debris flow inundation hazard area in moraine lake. The characteristics of 18 moraine lakes are introduced in detail by remote sensing, and the linear regression model is used. The mathematical relationship between the volume of debris flow in moraine lake and the area of submerged hazard area, the volume of debris flow in moraine lake and the cross section area of hazard area is obtained, and the mathematical model is established. In chapter 6, numerical simulation of debris flow inundation hazard area of Moraine Lake and Moraine Lake in Jialong Lake is carried out. By using LAHARZ software, the required parameters are calculated and visualized results are obtained. The range of hazard areas of these two moraine lakes under different collapsing conditions is predicted. The seventh chapter is the conclusion, which summarizes the work done in the paper and draws a conclusion.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P642.23

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