鄂西南山区小区域大比例尺滑坡灾害易发性及其精度评价

发布时间：2018-05-03 16:49

本文选题：滑坡 + 斜坡单元　；参考：《山地学报》2017年04期

【摘要】：小范围大比例尺地质灾害易发性评价面临时空数据精度或质量不满足理论要求的现状。如何利用有限的数据实现相对可靠的评价结果,是论文研究的主要目的。论文选取湖北省五峰县渔洋关镇为研究区域,考虑水文、地形、岩性分布、历史灾害规模等因素讨论了斜坡单元的划分方法;将证据权模型分析所得滑坡易发性值转换至各斜坡单元,绘制基于斜坡单元的研究区易发性评价分级图;分别采用ROC曲线和野外核查手段,评价了易发性结论的成功率和预测率。研究表明,斜坡单元的划分一方面要符合实际地形,另一方面更应体现单元的地质差异性;栅格计算结论转化为斜坡单元的表达成果、精度分析的注重和野外核查工作的开展是保证分析结果可靠性的有效途径;湖北省五峰县渔洋关镇易发性评价成功率和预测率分别为84%和74%,野外验核与理论分析结果的一致性较高。
[Abstract]:The small scale geological hazard vulnerability evaluation is faced with the present situation that the accuracy or quality of spatiotemporal data does not meet the theoretical requirements. How to use limited data to achieve relatively reliable evaluation results is the main purpose of this paper. This paper selects Yuyangguan Town, Wufeng County, Hubei Province as the research area, and discusses the method of dividing slope units considering the factors of hydrology, topography, lithology distribution and historical disaster scale. The landslide vulnerability value obtained from the evidence weight model analysis is converted to each slope unit, and the vulnerability assessment classification map of the study area based on the slope unit is drawn, and the ROC curve and field verification method are used, respectively. The success rate and prediction rate of susceptibility conclusions were evaluated. The research shows that the division of slope units should accord with the actual terrain on the one hand, and on the other hand, it should reflect the geological differences of the units, and the results of grid calculation can be transformed into the expression results of slope units. The attention to accuracy analysis and the development of field verification are effective ways to ensure the reliability of the analysis results. The success rate and prediction rate of vulnerability evaluation in Yuyangguan Town, Wufeng County, Hubei Province were 84% and 74%, respectively. The results of field nuclear inspection and theoretical analysis were in good agreement.
【作者单位】：中国地质大学(武汉)地球物理与空间信息学院;中国地质调查局武汉地质调查中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41641012) 中国地质调查局二级项目(D5.7.3)科研专题“武陵山区城镇地质灾害风险评估技术指南”~~
【分类号】：P642.22

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