中国2005-2016年地质灾害的时空变化及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-05-07 09:46

本文选题：地质灾害 + 时空变化　；参考：《地球信息科学学报》2017年12期

【摘要】：基于中国地质环境监测院发布的《全国地质灾害通报》,本文从时空分布及影响因素2个方面,对2005-2016年的地质灾害发生类型变化、空间分布、成因、损失和避让情况进行了统计分析。分析结果表明:(1)滑坡与崩塌是主要的地质灾害类型,分别占地质灾害总数的70%与10%左右,地质灾害总数、滑坡与崩塌均呈明显减少趋势;(2)在空间分布上,地质灾害主要分布在湖南省和四川省,它们也是直接经济损失最大省份,四川省同时为死亡失踪人数最多的省份;(3)自然因素造成的地质灾害从96.6%降低到92.0%,人为因素造成的地质灾害则呈整体增加趋势,通过回归方程,每年平均增加量约为0.5%;(4)地质灾害造成的死亡、失踪和受伤的总人数逐渐递减,每年约减少75人左右;特大型地质灾害占总数的0.5%,却造成人员伤亡总数的25.7%和直接经济损失总量的47.7%;(5)避免的地质灾害与经济损失占地质灾害总数与直接经济损失总量的百分比,分别从2005年的2.8%与9.3%提高到2016年的6.9%与22.4%。通过回归方程,避免地质灾害数目与避免经济损失的百分比每年增长为0.7%与1.5%左右。通过对中国地质灾害的长时间动态监测结果进行分析,说明中国的防灾减灾工作取得了明显进展。
[Abstract]:Based on the "National Geological Hazard Bulletin" issued by the China Geological Environment Monitoring Institute, this paper, from two aspects of temporal and spatial distribution and influencing factors, analyzes the changes in the occurrence types, spatial distribution and causes of geological disasters from 2005 to 2016. The situation of loss and avoidance is analyzed statistically. The results show that the landslide and collapse are the main types of geological hazards, accounting for about 70% and 10% of the total number of geological hazards, respectively. Geological hazards are mainly distributed in Hunan Province and Sichuan Province, which are also the provinces with the greatest direct economic losses. At the same time, Sichuan Province is the province with the highest number of deaths and missing persons.) the geological disasters caused by natural factors have been reduced from 96.6% to 92.0%, while the geological disasters caused by human factors have shown an overall increasing trend. Through regression equations, The average annual increase is about 0.5%) the total number of people missing and injured due to geological disasters is gradually decreasing, and about 75 persons are reduced each year. The percentage of geological hazards and economic losses to the total number of geological hazards and direct economic losses, which account for 25.7% of the total number of casualties and 47.7% of the total direct economic losses, is the percentage of the total number of geological disasters and direct economic losses. It increased from 2.8% and 9.3% in 2005 to 6.9% and 22.4% in 2016, respectively. By regression equation, the percentage of avoiding geological hazards and avoiding economic loss increases by 0.7% and 1.5% each year. Through the analysis of the long-term dynamic monitoring results of geological hazards in China, it is shown that the disaster prevention and mitigation work in China has made remarkable progress.
【作者单位】：太原理工大学矿业工程学院;太原市环境监测中心站;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0503603) 国家自然科学基金项目(41631179;41771443) 科技基础性工作专项项目(2011FY110400-2) 测绘地理信息公益性行业科研专项项目(201512033) 太原理工大学引进人才科研启动经费项目(tyut-rc201221a)
【分类号】：P694

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