多尺度液化灾害区划和评估技术研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 10:15

本文选题：多尺度 + 液化灾害区划　；参考：《中国地震局工程力学研究所》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：大量的震害调查结果表明,地震诱发的液化灾害是比较普遍且危害性大的地震灾害之一。2016年台湾高雄地震,土壤液化严重,造成了民众的恐慌。震后台湾“行政院”立即组织发布了液化潜势查询系统,民众争相登录查询,甚至导致该系统的瘫痪。由此可见,进一步深入研究液化灾害区划图对防灾减灾具有深远的意义。许多专家学者都已经探索减轻这一破坏的办法,其中最主要的途径就是像地震区划一样用图纸将易于液化的区域展示出来。本文提出多尺度液化灾害区划和评估技术,对于多尺度问题,我国滑坡区划技术研究及实践中已经有成功的实例,借鉴国外一些机构提出的比较成熟的规范中相关的地质灾害风险管理控制或评价层次、精度和适用范围等资料文献,制作出不同精度,不同应用范围,能够显示特定区划水平要求信息的地质灾害风险评价分区图。而我国对液化灾害区划和评估并没有相应的系统的技术,并且由于引发地震液化的条件复杂,诸多因素制约着液化灾害的有效预防,各地经济发展水平不一,因此液化灾害调查研究水平各异。针对这些经济上、政治上和自然条件的不均匀性,以及不同的研究区域对精度要求不同,本文提出了多尺度液化灾害区划的概念,并提出一套适于不同尺度的液化灾害区划及评估技术,为政府土地利用和减灾防灾规划、工程建设、液化灾害科学管理、地震应急救援和震害调查工作等提供支持,为我国液化灾害风险分析工作提供必要的技术支持。论文以我国滑坡区划技术的发展为借鉴,提出针对不同规模区域的多尺度的液化区划及评估技术,给出关于液化灾害的整体分布,主要工作如下:1.提出了多尺度液化灾害区划的概念、内涵及指导思想;对国际现有液化区划技术、相关理论进行了详细总结与剖析,指出了其不足;指出了国际上的现有方法在我国本土化方面遇到的问题,为方法的改进及本土化奠定了基础,为推动我国液化灾害风险理论研究提供了重要线索。2.发展了小尺度液化侧移区划技术,放弃了以往各参数相互独立假定,采用数据驱使的建模方法,提出了基于MARS液化侧移计算模型,提高了单一场地以及小区划的液化侧移计算精度。采用不需要特定的假设的多元自适应样条回归法MARS计算液化侧移,对比结果表明,采用MARS模型计算的液化侧移比MLR有更大的优势,结果与实际值更相符。3.提出了一套中等尺度液化侧移区划技术,给出了面元素提取方法,克服了现有方法过分依赖高密度钻孔的弊端,实现了节约钻孔数量同时又保证必要精度下的中等尺度液化侧移区划的目标。4.基于国际上权威数据库,采用CART法得到了各参量影响度及主要影响参数,构建了液化侧移灾害等级分类决策树,提出了新的液化侧移等级判别标准LLSL(Liquefaction Lateral Spread Level)并给出其合理性和可靠性的验证。5.根据实际需求和研究现状,选用易于大面积获取且能较好表征液化影响的特征参数,构建了一套无需钻孔资料的区域液化风险评估模型,实现了大尺度液化可能性的粗略估计及震后可能液化区的快速评估。提出了两种1:100万尺度的液化风险区划方法,其一是LSLRM(Large-Scale Liquefaction Risk Map),液化风险计算采用统一模型,模型依靠四个参数:ShakeMap地震动图、湿度指数CTI、场地剪切波速VS30和与到河流的距离DR;其二是DLSLRM(Division Large-Scale Liquefaction Risk Map),按“地质准则”准则将研究区域分为三大类别区,各个类别区的液化风险计算采用各自模型以提高评估精度。
[Abstract]:A large number of earthquake damage investigation results show that the liquefaction induced by earthquake is one of the most common and harmful earthquake disasters in Taiwan Kaohsiung earthquake in Taiwan. The soil liquefaction is serious, causing the panic of the people. After the earthquake, the Taiwan "administrative hospital" immediately organized a liquefaction potential query system, the people scrambled to login and inquired, even led to the Department. It can be seen that further in-depth study of the liquefied disaster zoning map is of profound significance to disaster prevention and reduction. Many experts and scholars have explored ways to mitigate this damage. The most important way is to show the liquefied areas in the same way as seismic zoning. This paper proposes a multi-scale liquefied disaster area. In the study and practice of the landslide zoning technology in China, there have been successful examples in the research and practice of the landslide regionalization technology in China. The zoning map of geological hazard risk assessment can show the requirement of specific zoning level, but there is no corresponding system technology for the division and evaluation of liquefaction disaster in China, and many factors restrict the effective prevention of liquefied disasters because of the complicated conditions of earthquake liquefaction. In this paper, the concept of multi scale liquefied disaster zoning is proposed, and a set of technology for the division and evaluation of liquefaction hazard suitable for different scales is put forward for the government's land use and disaster mitigation planning, as well as the heterogeneity of the political and natural conditions and the different requirements for different research areas. Engineering construction, scientific management of liquefied disasters, earthquake emergency rescue and earthquake damage investigation are provided to provide the necessary technical support for the risk analysis of liquefied disaster in China. The paper takes the development of the landslide zoning technology in our country for reference, and puts forward the multi-scale liquefied zoning and evaluation technology for different scale regions. The main work of the overall distribution of liquefied disasters is as follows: 1. the concept, connotation and guiding ideology of multi-scale liquefied disaster zoning are put forward, and the relevant theories of international liquefied regionalization and related theories are summarized and analyzed in detail, and the shortcomings are pointed out, and the problems encountered in the localization of our country are pointed out, and the methods are proposed. The improvement and localization laid the foundation, and provided an important clue for the study of the theory of liquefaction hazard in China,.2. developed the small scale liquefaction side migration zoning technology, gave up the previous parameters independent assumption and adopted the data driven modeling method, and proposed a calculation model based on the MARS liquid lateral displacement, which improved the single site and the small size. The calculation accuracy of the liquefaction lateral displacement of the division. The liquefaction side shift is calculated by the multiple adaptive spline regression method, which does not need the specific hypothesis. The comparison results show that the liquefaction side shift calculated by the MARS model has a greater advantage than that of MLR, and the result is more consistent with the actual value than the actual value. The result is a set of medium and equal scale liquefaction zoning technology, and a set of surface elements is given by.3.. The method of element extraction overcomes the disadvantages of excessive dependence of high density boreholes in the existing methods, and realizes the target.4. for saving the number of boreholes and ensuring the necessary precision of the medium scale liquefaction zoning based on the international authoritative database. The influence degree and the main influence parameters of the parameters are obtained by the CART method, and the liquefaction side displacement disaster is constructed. A new classification decision tree is proposed, and a new criterion LLSL (Liquefaction Lateral Spread Level) is proposed and its rationality and reliability are verified. According to the actual requirements and research status,.5. is used to construct a set of area without drilling data, which is easy to obtain in large area and can better characterize the effect of liquefaction. The liquefaction risk assessment model has realized the rough estimation of the possibility of large scale liquefaction and the rapid assessment of the potential liquefaction area after the earthquake. Two kinds of 1:100 ten thousand scale liquefaction risk zoning methods are proposed, one is LSLRM (Large-Scale Liquefaction Risk Map), the liquefaction risk calculation adopts a unified model, and the model relies on the vibration of the ShakeMap ground motion. Figure, humidity index CTI, site shear wave velocity VS30 and distance to river DR; second is DLSLRM (Division Large-Scale Liquefaction Risk Map). According to the "geological criteria" criterion, the study area is divided into three major categories, and the liquefaction risk of each category area is calculated by each model in order to improve the evaluation accuracy.

【学位授予单位】：中国地震局工程力学研究所
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P315.9

【参考文献】