2016年铁矿石价格影响因素分析及未来价格走势预测

发布时间：2018-05-14 06:03

本文选题：铁矿石 + 影响因素　；参考：《中国矿业》2017年06期

【摘要】：铁矿石价格主要受国家税收、石油价格、环保法实施、矿业巨头垄断、"一带一路"政策、新农村建设、世界经济复苏和金融炒作八个因素的影响。2016年,资源税全面实施从价计征;运输成本上升;环保法严格实施;钢铁行业去产能严格落实;矿业巨头垄断进一步加剧,铁矿石成本下降趋势可能终结;人民币贬值超出预期;"一带一路"逐步实施;国际、国内经济缓慢复苏;新农村建设取得一定进展;铁矿石金融炒作愈演愈烈。这些因素变化导致了铁矿石价格在2016年探底回升,普氏62%铁矿石价格指数从2016年年初最低的39.25,上涨到年末最高83.95。预计2017年铁矿石价格将呈"前升后降"走势。更长期来看,铁矿石价格仍将低位运行,合理价格在70~90美元/t。
[Abstract]:Iron ore prices are mainly affected by eight factors: state tax, oil price, enforcement of environmental protection laws, monopoly of mining giants, "Belt and Road" policy, new rural construction, world economic recovery and financial speculation. Comprehensive implementation of the resource tax ad valorem levy; transport costs rise; environmental protection laws strictly implemented; iron and steel industry to the strict implementation of production capacity; mining giant monopoly further intensified, iron ore costs may end the downward trend; RMB depreciation exceeded expectations; "Belt and Road" gradually implemented; international, domestic economic recovery; new rural construction made some progress; iron ore financial speculation intensified. These changes led to a recovery in iron ore prices in 2016, with the price index rising from 39.25 at the beginning of 2016 to 83.95 at the end of the year. Iron ore prices in 2017 are expected to be "up and down" trend. In the longer term, iron ore prices will remain low, with reasonable prices at $70 to $90 / t.
【作者单位】：中钢矿业开发有限公司;
【分类号】：F416.1;F764

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