基于地理加权回归模型的云南省地质灾害易发性评价

发布时间：2018-05-20 13:35

本文选题：地质灾害 + 易发性评价　；参考：《自然灾害学报》2017年02期

【摘要】：云南省是我国各种地质灾害的多发区。该文以2000-2014年云南省发生的500个典型地质灾害事件为基础,选取与地质灾害相关的诱发因素因子和潜在形成条件因子,构建了相应的评价指标体系。然后采用地理加权回归模型对其进行易发性评价,并对结果进行了等级划分。最后利用引入空间准确测量思想的成功率曲线和ROC曲线,对评价结果进行了精度验证和分析比较。结果表明:(1)云南省地质灾害较高和极高易发区主要位于西北部地区,且以泸水县、中甸县和维西傈僳族自治县为最高;(2)对评价结果进行了分级,从低到高不同易发性等级的面积百分比分别为6.14%,24.80%,18.41%,24.68%,20.78%和5.18%;(3)在未引入空间准确测量思想情况前,成功率曲线和ROC曲线的AUC值分别为0.503 8和0.965 1;引入空间准确测量思想后,AUC值分别为0.681 3和0.992 7,证明所提基于地理加权回归模型的云南省地质灾害易发性评价具有较高的可靠性。
[Abstract]:Yunnan Province is a frequent occurrence area of various geological disasters in China. Based on the 500 typical geological hazard events in Yunnan Province from 2000 to 2014, the relevant evaluation index system was constructed by selecting the inducing factors and the potential forming condition factors related to geological disasters. Then the geographical weighted regression model is used to evaluate its susceptibility and the results are graded. Finally, the accuracy of the evaluation results is verified and compared by using the success rate curve and ROC curve with the idea of spatial accurate measurement. The results show that the high and extremely high geological hazard areas of Yunnan Province are mainly located in the northwest of Yunnan Province, with Lushui County, Zhongdian County and Visi Lisu Autonomous County as the highest ones. The percentages of area from low to high are 6.14 and 24.80, respectively, and 18.41 and 24.68, 20.78% and 5.18%, respectively.) before the introduction of space to accurately measure the situation of ideas, The AUC values of the success rate curve and the ROC curve are 0.503 8 and 0.965 1, respectively, and the AUC values are 0.681 3 and 0.992 7 respectively after introducing the idea of spatial accurate measurement, which proves that the proposed geo-weighted regression model has high reliability in evaluating the vulnerability of geological hazards in Yunnan Province.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院;北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室;中国财产再保险有限责任公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41571077,41471223) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金~~
【分类号】：P694

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