黄土滑坡危险性评估关键技术及应用

发布时间：2018-05-27 16:40

本文选题：黄土滑坡 + 危险性评估　；参考：《长安大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：每年约有三分之一的滑坡发生在面积不到百分之五的黄土高原地区,《国务院关于加强地质灾害防治工作决定》将黄土高原地区列为我国地质灾害重点防治地区之一。在新型城镇化建设和丝绸之路经济带建设中,黄土高原地区减灾防灾工作尤为重要。地质灾害既有自然属性,又有社会属性,决定着地质灾害的危险性和危害性,掌握地质灾害自身的发育特征和分布规律,评估其发生的概率和规模、可能的运移路径和速度、可能到达的范围是地质灾害风险管控的基础,也是地质工作者的主要任务。本人有幸全程参加了“陕西省重要城镇地质灾害调查与风险评估(绥德县城区)”地质调查项目工作,本文根据详实的野外调查资料,以陕西省榆林市绥德县城区黄土滑坡为研究对象,在总结国内外滑坡风险评估理论和危险性评估技术方法的基础上,结合研究区地质环境条件及黄土滑坡特征,梳理了黄土地质灾害危险性定量化分量评估的关键技术方法和难点,并选择典型黄土滑坡开展危险性评估。1、系统分析了研究区降雨量序列,划分100年、50年、20年、10年及5年一遇的1天、5天及10天累计雨量极值,建立多日累计极值雨量重现概率模型,并以降雨为触发事件,计算滑坡的发生概率。2、通过对研究区典型黄土滑坡特征进行统计分析,采用经验法中的阴影角法进行回归分析,建立滑距预测模型,模型拟合度R2=0.961,标准误差S=0.883。3、定义滑坡的强度为滑移速度与体积的乘积。采用有限元求解方法,开发三维连续介质模型程序,建立典型黄土滑坡的三维动态动力分析模型。开展滑坡的运动侵蚀行为、形态变化及动力学特征研究,预测滑坡的滑距、堆积形态及滑移速度。通过上述分析,对滑坡危险性进行定量化计算。以绥德县十里铺村滑坡为例,进行陕北典型黄土滑坡危险性评估,其定量化结果为:财产危险性H=1.8×10-3,危险性高,人员危险性H=6.8×10-4,危险性中。
[Abstract]:Every year, about 1/3 landslides occur in the Loess Plateau with an area less than 5%. The decision of the State Council on strengthening the prevention and control of geological disasters has listed the Loess Plateau as one of the key areas for the prevention and control of geological disasters in China. In the construction of new urbanization and Silk Road economic belt, the disaster reduction and prevention work in the Loess Plateau is particularly important. Geological hazards have both natural and social attributes, which determine the hazards and harmfulness of geological disasters, master the developmental characteristics and distribution laws of geological disasters themselves, evaluate the probability and scale of geological disasters, and assess the possible migration paths and speeds. The possible range is the basis of geological hazard risk management and the main task of geologists. I was fortunate enough to participate in the geological survey project of "Geological disaster Survey and risk Assessment of important towns in Shaanxi Province (Suide County Urban area)". According to the detailed field investigation data, Taking loess landslide in Suide County, Yulin City, Shaanxi Province as the research object, on the basis of summarizing the theory of landslide risk assessment and the technical method of risk assessment at home and abroad, combined with the geological environment conditions and loess landslide characteristics in the study area, The key technical methods and difficulties of quantitative component assessment of loess geological hazard risk are combed out, and the rainfall sequence in the study area is systematically analyzed by selecting typical loess landslide to carry out hazard assessment. The accumulated rainfall extremum of 1 day, 5 days and 10 days is divided into 100, 50, 20, 10 and 5 years, and the probability model of multiple days accumulative extreme rainfall recurrence is established, and the event is triggered by rainfall. The probability of landslide occurrence is calculated. Through statistical analysis of typical loess landslide characteristics in the study area, regression analysis is carried out by using shadow angle method in empirical method, and a sliding distance prediction model is established. The model fit is 0.961and the standard error is 0.883.3.The strength of the landslide is defined as the product of the slip velocity and volume. The 3D dynamic analysis model of typical loess landslide was established by using the finite element method and the program of 3D continuum model was developed. The movement erosion behavior, morphological change and dynamic characteristics of landslide were studied to predict the slip distance, accumulation shape and slip velocity of landslide. Through the above analysis, the landslide risk is calculated quantitatively. Taking the landslide of Shilipu Village in Suide County as an example, the risk assessment of typical loess landslide in Northern Shaanxi is carried out. The quantitative results are as follows: property risk is 1.8 脳 10 ~ (-3), risk is high, personnel risk is 6.8 脳 10 ~ (-4), risk is moderate.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P642.22

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