多元统计方法与随机理论在银川平原地下水研究中的应用

发布时间：2018-06-12 22:57

本文选题：多元统计 + 随机理论　；参考：《长安大学》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：地下水资源是干旱区人工灌溉平原生存与发展的重要水源。然而随着人口的快速增长和社会经济的迅猛发展,对水资源的需求量急剧增加;加之不合理开采和灌溉农业的发展,引发了一系列水资源与水环境问题。本文以典型干旱区灌溉平原-银川平原为研究对象,以地下水位变化和地下水水化学演化为线索,综合运用数理统计、水文地质学、水文地球化学等学科理论,结合银川平原水文地质背景、地下水补径排特点、地下水化学类型特征及地下水空间赋存环境特征,应用半变异函数理论分析不同含水层渗透系数的空间变异特征,运用多元统计方法确定地下水水质演化特征和影响因素,应用随机理论预测地下水位和水质指标变化趋势,运用水文地球化学模拟对研究区潜水和承压水水化学成分的形成模式进行研究,得到了以下成果:(1)研究区潜水含水层渗透系数呈现对数正态分布,中等变异性。而承压水含水层渗透系数变异程度明显小于潜水含水层,呈现微弱正偏态较平坦正态分布。潜水含水层和承压水含水层的最优拟合模型分别为球状模型和指数模型,空间相关性分别为0.582和0.518,显示研究区各含水层渗透系数具有中等的空间相关性。各含水层的拟合模型块金值C0均大于0,说明其连续性较差,且潜水明显劣于承压水。(2)应用因子分析法对黄河西岸潜水水样分析结果进行分析,基于特征值大于1,提取4个主因子,共占原始数据总方差的82.7%。其中第一主因子代表蒸发浓缩作用;第二主因子代表生活聚集区粪便污染及人类活动的影响;第三主因子代表承压水与潜水的混合作用;第四主因子代表脱碳酸作用。对于黄河东岸潜水,通过主成分分析法3个主成分被提取,共占原始数据总方差的87.2%。其中主成分1-3分别为蒸发浓缩作用、碳酸盐和含钾矿物的溶解及萤石矿物的沉淀作用、动物粪便污染及人类活动的影响。(3)对于研究区承压水水样,应用因子分析法提取了4个主因子,共占原始数据总方差的85.58%。其中主因子1为岩盐、斜长石、芒硝和石膏的溶解作用,主因子2反映了潜水与承压水的混合作用,主因子3为人类开采活动的影响,主因子4为含氟离子矿物的溶解。(4)应用聚类分析法将黄河西岸潜水水样分为三类:A、B和C。其中A类广泛分布于研究区黄河西岸,主要离子为Na~+、Ca~(2+)和HCO_3~-,水化学类型主要为HCO_(3-)Na、HCO_(3-)Mg、HCO_(3-)Ca和HCO_(3-)Mg·Na·Ca;主要离子和TDS具有最低的平均浓度,显示良好的水质。B类主要分布于石嘴山市西侧的冲洪积扇和银川市区,主要离子为Mg~(2+)、HCO_3~-和SO_4~(2-),占主导地位的水化学类型为HCO_(3-)Mg和SO_4·HCO_(3-)Mg·Ca·Na。C类主要分布于径流区下游的石嘴山市区域,在银川市西部山前人类居住区也有零星分布,主要离子为Na~+、SO_4~(2-)和Cl~-,占主导地位的水化学类型为Cl·SO_4-Na;主要离子和TDS具有最高的平均浓度,水质差。对于黄河东岸潜水水样,应用聚类分析法划分为三类:A、B和C。其中A类均位于离黄河较近区域,主要离子为Na~+、Cl~-和HCO_3~-,水化学类型为HCO_(3-)Na。B类位于离黄河较远的地区,主要离子和TDS在三个分类中最小,显示水样水质良好;主要离子为Na~+、Cl~-和HCO_3~-,水化学类型多样,分别为Cl~-Na、HCO_(3-)Na、HCO_3·Cl~-Na和HCO_(3-)Na·Mg。C类位于黄河东岸中部,主要离子和TDS在三个分类中最大,水样水质很差,水化学类型为Cl~-Na。(5)对研究区承压水水样应用聚类分析法划分为两类:A和B。A类广泛分布于研究区,代表承压水未受污染的状态,离子浓度低,显示水样水质较好;主要离子为Na~+、Mg~(2+)和HCO_3~-,水化学类型主要为HCO_(3-)Na、HCO_(3-)Mg和HCO_(3-)Na·Mg。B类位于石嘴山山前倾斜平原和银川地区,均为人口聚集区;这些水样的主要离子和TDS较高,显示水样水质较差,水化学类型分别为HCO_(3-)Na、Cl~-Na和SO_4-Ca。(6)根据1991-2010年银川地区漏斗区潜水和承压水特征点水位动态监测资料,应用马尔科夫链计算的2011和2012年丰水期与枯水期地下水位同实测水位对比,发现二者基本吻合,水位差值分别为承压水C22-0.68-0.99 m和潜水S22-0.07-0.08 m;模拟的相对误差为C22-0.06%-0.09%,S22-0.006%-0.007%,表明模拟水位与实际监测值相一致。根据1991-2011年银川地区漏斗区地下水特征点水质数据应用马尔科夫链计算的2012年水质各指标的状态区间与实际情况一致,预测值与水质各指标监测值基本吻合。(7)针对多元统计分析得出的影响研究区潜水和承压水水质变化的水化学作用,分别选取相应模拟路径进行模拟分析。区内潜水水化学成分变化在中部和南部具有不同的特征。中部银川地区主要包括岩盐、石膏等矿物的溶解和方解石的沉淀,使水化学类型从HCO_(3-)Mg演变为SO_4·HCO_(3-)Mg型水,表现出径流过程中水化学类型由简单到复杂。南部青铜峡地区在径流过程中接受黄河灌溉水补给,地下水补径排模式发生改变。主要发生了石膏、岩盐、钠长石、白云石和钾长石的溶解,以及方解石、玉髓和高岭石的沉淀,使下游TDS减少,但其水化学类型变化不大,分别HCO_3·SO_4-Mg·Na·Ca和HCO_(3-)Mg·Na型水。研究区承压水主要发生了岩盐、石膏、钠长石和白云石的溶解和玉髓、方解石、高岭石的沉淀,但其水化学类型均为HCO_(3-)Mg型水。本文进行的研究,是地下水研究与多元统计、随机理论等数理统计学科相结合在我国典型干旱区灌溉平原的一个尝试,首次运用半变异函数理论全面分析了研究区各含水层渗透系数的空间变异特性,对典型开采区地下水水位与水质变化运用马尔科夫理论进行了预测分析,首次深入地应用多元统计理论对研究区地下水化学成分的影响因素进行了分析,这也是当前地下水科学研究中的一个新领域,作为一种新的探索,取得了良好的成果与成效,对其他类似灌区平原具有很好的参考和借鉴。
[Abstract]:Groundwater resources are important water sources for the survival and development of artificial irrigation plain in arid areas. However, with the rapid growth of the population and the rapid development of social economy, the demand for water resources is increasing rapidly. In addition, a series of water resources and water environment problems have been caused by the development of irrational mining and irrigated agriculture. This paper is irrigated in a typical arid area. The plain Yinchuan plain is the subject of study. Based on the variation of groundwater level and the evolution of groundwater and hydrochemistry as a clue, the theory of mathematical statistics, hydrogeology and hydrogeochemistry, combined with the hydrological and geological background of the Yinchuan plain, the characteristics of groundwater recharging and drainage, the characteristics of groundwater chemical types and the characteristics of the spatial existence of groundwater, should be used. The semivariogram theory is used to analyze the spatial variation characteristics of the permeability coefficient of different aquifers. The characteristics of groundwater quality evolution and the influencing factors are determined by the multivariate statistical method. The variation trend of groundwater level and water quality index is predicted by the random theory, and the chemical composition of the submersible water and the confined water in the study area is simulated by hydrogeochemical simulation. The following results are obtained: (1) the osmosis coefficient of the submerged aquifer in the study area is lognormal and medium variation, while the variation degree of the osmotic coefficient of the confined aquifer is obviously smaller than that of the submerged aquifer. The optimal fitting model of the submerged aquifer and the aquifer of the confined water is presented. The spatial correlation of the aquifers in the study area is 0.582 and 0.518 respectively, which shows that the permeability coefficient of the aquifers in the study area has a moderate spatial correlation. The C0 of the fitting model of each aquifer is more than 0, indicating that its continuity is poor and the diving is inferior to the confined water. (2) the application factor analysis method for the submersible water on the West Bank of the Yellow River. Sample analysis results were analyzed. Based on the characteristic value greater than 1, 4 main factors were extracted, which accounted for 82.7%. of the total variance of the original data, and the first principal factor represented evaporation concentration; second main factors represent the fecal pollution and human activities in the living area; third main factors substitute for the mixture of pressure water and diving; fourth main factor generation. Table decarbonation. For the Yellow River east coast diving, 3 principal components were extracted by principal component analysis (PCA), which accounted for 87.2%. of the total variance of the original data. The principal component 1-3 was evaporative concentration, the dissolution of carbonate and potassium containing minerals and the precipitation of fluorite minerals, the pollution of animal feces and the influence of human activity. (3) for the study area 4 main factors were extracted by the method of factor analysis, and the main factor 1 was 85.58%. of the total variance of the original data. The main factor 1 was the dissolution of rock salt, plagioclase, mirabilite and gypsum, and the main factor 2 reflected the mixed action of the diving and the confined water, the main factor 3 was the influence of the human exploitation, and the main factor 4 was the dissolution of the fluorine containing mineral. (4) the submersible water samples in the West Bank of the Yellow River are divided into three categories: A, B and C., which are widely distributed in the West Bank of the study area. The main ions are Na~+, Ca~ (2+) and HCO_3~-, and the main types of hydrochemistry are HCO_ (3-) Na, HCO_ (3-). The mass.B is mainly distributed in the alluvial fan and Yinchuan city on the west side of Shizuishan. The main ions are Mg~ (2+), HCO_3~- and SO_4~ (2-). The dominant types of hydrochemistry are HCO_ (3-) Mg and SO_4. HCO_ (3-), which are mainly distributed in the Shizuishan region downstream of the runoff region, and there are sporadic points in the human residential area in the west of Yinchuan. The main ions are Na~+, SO_4~ (2-) and Cl~-, the dominant hydrochemical type is Cl. SO_4-Na; the main ions and TDS have the highest average concentration, and the water quality is poor. The cluster analysis method is used to divide the the Yellow River east coast water samples into three categories: A, B and C. which are located in the near region from the Yellow River, and the main ions are Na~+, Cl~- and C.. The hydrochemical type is HCO_ (3-) Na.B, which is located far away from the Yellow River. The main ions and TDS are the smallest in the three classifications, indicating that the water samples are good in water quality; the main ions are Na~+, Cl~- and HCO_3~-. The types of hydrochemistry are Cl~-Na, HCO_ (3-) Na, HCO_3. The three classification is the largest, water sample is poor. The hydrochemical type is Cl~-Na. (5), which is divided into two categories: A and B. a widely distributed in the study area, representing the unpolluted state of the pressure water, the low concentration of the ions, and the better water samples; the main ions are Na~+, Mg~ (2+) and HCO_3~-, and the hydrochemical type. HCO_ (3-) Na, HCO_ (3-) Mg and HCO_ (3-) Na / Mg.B are located in the Shizuishan mountain front sloping plain and Yinchuan area, all of which are population gathering areas. The main ions and TDS of these water samples show that the water samples are poor in water quality, and the hydrochemical types are respectively HCO_ (6) according to the diving and pressure in the funnel area of the Yinchuan region for 1991-2010 years. The water level dynamic monitoring data of water characteristic point is compared with the measured water level in the 2011 and 2012 years of the Markov chain and the ground water level in the dry period of 2011 and 2012. It is found that the two are basically identical, the water level difference is C22-0.68-0.99 m of the confined water and the dive S22-0.07-0.08 m, and the relative error of the simulation is C22-0.06%-0.09%, S22-0.006%-0.007%, Biao Mingmo. The proposed water level is in accordance with the actual monitoring value. According to the water quality data of the groundwater characteristics point in the funnel area of Yinchuan area in 1991-2011 years, the state interval of the water quality indexes in 2012 is in accordance with the actual conditions. The prediction value is basically consistent with the monitoring values of the water quality indexes. (7) the influence of the multivariate statistical analysis on the potential of the study area The chemical composition of the water and the water quality of the confined water is simulated. The chemical composition of the submersible water in the region has different characteristics in the central and southern parts. The central Yinchuan area mainly includes the dissolution of rock salt, gypsum and other minerals and calcite precipitation, making the hydrochemical type from HCO_ (3-) Mg to SO_4. HC O_ (3-) Mg type water shows the hydrochemical type of the runoff process from simple to complex. The southern Qingtongxia area receives the recharge of the Yellow River irrigation water during the runoff process, and the groundwater recharge pattern changes. The dissolution of gypsum, rock salt, albite, dolomite and potassium feldspar, as well as the precipitation of calcite, chalcedony and kaolinite, and the precipitation of calcite, chalcedony and kaolinite are mainly caused by the precipitation of calcite, chalcedony and kaolinite. TDS decreased, but its hydrochemical type changed little, respectively HCO_3. SO_4-Mg. Na. Ca and HCO_ (3-) Mg. Na type water. The confined water in the study area mainly occurred the dissolution of rock salt, gypsum, albite and dolomite, and the precipitation of chalcedony, calcite and kaolinite, but the hydrochemical types were HCO_ (3-) Mg type water. The study in this paper is the study of groundwater. Combined with the mathematical statistics department, such as multivariate statistics, random theory, and other mathematical statistics departments in an attempt of the irrigation plain in typical arid areas of China, the spatial variation characteristics of the osmotic coefficient of each aquifer in the study area are analyzed for the first time by using the semi variation function theory, and the Markoff theory is used for the groundwater level and the water quality in the typical mining area. The analysis of the factors affecting the chemical composition of groundwater in the study area is analyzed for the first time. It is also a new field in the current groundwater scientific research. As a new exploration, it has achieved good results and results, and has a good reference and reference for other similar irrigated plain.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P641.8

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