台湾地震灾害时空对称性研究

发布时间：2018-06-24 18:46

本文选题：时空对称 + 可公度　；参考：《陕西师范大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：台湾位于环太平洋地震带西缘,处于板块聚合交界地带,地质活动剧烈,地震灾害频发。加之人口密集,资源丰富,工业发达,破坏性地震造成的单位面积损失更高。因此,在地震预测仍为世界性难题的今天,研究台湾地震灾害的时空对称特征,准确判断其未来发生趋势,对于防震减灾有重要的理论和实践意义。本研究搜集整理了1900～2013年台湾历史地震灾害资料,以对称性为切入点,综合运用了可公度法、蝴蝶结构图、可公度结构系等时间对称性方法,和空间对称法、震中经纬度迁移法等空间对称性方法,分别探讨了台湾(含附近海域)及其东南地震带、东北地震带和西部地震带地震灾害的时空对称性特征,并对其未来发展趋势进行了判断。最后对板块运动、太阳黑子、地球自转、ENSO事件以及智利地震与台湾地震灾害的相关性进行了分析。主要结论有：(1)1900-2013年,台湾(含附近海域)、东南地震带、东北地震带和西部地震带不同震级地震均呈现良好的时间对称性,蝴蝶结构优美,可公度结构系脉络清晰。2015年和2016年,台湾(含附近海域)Ms≥7.1地震和东北地震带Ms≥76.2地震信号较强；2016年东南地震带和西部地震带强震的信号强烈,分别可能发生7.1级和7级以上地震。(2)1900～2013年,台湾(含附近海域)、东南地震带、东北地震带和西部地震带均呈现三边空间对称特征：①台湾(含附近海域)以23.5°N和121.6°E为对称轴,呈现“西北—东南”对称分布。判断下次Ms≥7.1地震发生有两种可能趋势：第一、继续与西北—东南对称轴相对平行,呈南北向分布,向西北方向迁移；第二、在2006年附近向东小幅移动；②东南地震带以22.95°N为对称轴,呈现“1南—2北”分布。判断下次Ms≥7.1地震震中很有可能向西南迁移,大抵移动至23°N以南,122°E以西地区,即发育在台湾台东以东海域；③东北地震带Ms≥6.2地震以122.1°E为对称轴,呈现“1东—2西”东西震荡对称分布规律。判断未来强震很有可能向西南大幅跃迁至宜兰以东海域,即可能在24.7°N以南,122.01°E以西地区；④西部地震带以23.3°N为和120.9°E为对称轴,呈现“两西一东和两北一南”反对称分布规律。判断未来Ms-≥7.0强震震中很有可能向东北迁移,至23°N以北,1210E以东区域,大致位于台湾南投市和花莲市。(3)通过分析地震与相关因子：板块运动、太阳黑子活动、地球自转、ENSO事件的相关关系得出：①台湾地震空间分布与其地质构造结构及该区板块相对运动特征十分吻合,主要受SEE-NWW主方向的板块碰撞地壳应力能量释放的影响,呈现SE-NW向分布。②各分区地震灾害均多发于太阳黑子活动下降阶段,年份比例分别高达55.6%、72.7%、47.1%、53.8%。③西部地震带Ms≥7.0强震多发生在地球自转的减速期内,其余各区对地球自转转化响应不明显。④除西部地震带,其余各区地震年份均多发于厄尔尼诺年,概率均在70%以上,最高达78.8%。厄尔尼诺强度越大,对应年份或其滞后年份的地震震级也相应越大,且厄尔尼诺事件与拉尼娜事件交替转换的年份,研究区更易发生震级愈大的地震。(4)1900-2013年,一般地,智利发生一次Ms≥8.0地震,在其前后4年内,台湾则会发生一次或几次Ms≥7.5地震。此外,构造结构相似的智利和台湾地震应力能在38～39a左右有较好的对应关系。在38a的变化周期内,台湾地震应力能正处于活跃期,表明近期台湾发生地震的可能性仍然较高,值得注意。本研究确定了近10a台湾强震灾害的时间异常点和空间可能域,丰富了灾害趋势判断研究案例,为防震减灾提供了一定的参考。
[Abstract]:Taiwan is located on the west edge of the Pacific seismic belt, which is in the border area of the plate polymerization, the geological activity is intense, the earthquake disaster occurs frequently. In addition, the population is dense, the resources are rich, the industry is developed, the damage of the unit area caused by the destructive earthquake is higher. Therefore, the time and space symmetry of the earthquake disaster in Taiwan is studied today, and the space-time symmetry of the earthquake disaster is studied. It has important theoretical and practical significance for earthquake prevention and disaster reduction. This study collects and collects the historical earthquake disaster data of Taiwan in the past 1900~2013 years, taking symmetry as the breakthrough point, using the method of commensurability, butterfly structure, common degree structure and other time symmetry methods, space symmetry method, epicenter The spatial symmetry of latitudinal migration method, such as the spatial symmetry of Taiwan (including the nearby sea area) and its southeast seismic belt, the Northeast seismic belt and the Western seismic belt, is discussed respectively, and its future development trend is judged. Finally, the plate movement, sunspot, earth rotation, ENSO events and the Chile earthquake and Taiwan are discussed. The correlation of earthquake disaster is analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) 1900-2013 years, Taiwan (including nearby sea area), Southeast seismic belt, Northeast seismic belt and Western seismic belt all exhibit good time symmetry, butterfly structure is beautiful, and the structure line is clear.2015 year and 2016, Taiwan (including nearby sea area) Ms > 7.1 Earthquake and Northeast seismic belt Ms more than 76.2 seismic signals are stronger; in 2016, the strong earthquakes in the southeast seismic belt and the Western seismic belt are strong, the earthquakes of 7.1 and more than 7 may occur respectively. (2) 1900~2013 years, Taiwan (including the nearby sea area), the southeast seismic belt, the Northeast seismic belt and the West seismic belt all have the three side spatial symmetry characteristics: (1) Taiwan (1) The adjacent sea area, with 23.5 degree N and 121.6 degree E as symmetry axis, presents symmetrical distribution of "northwest to Southeast". It is found that there are two possible trends in the next Ms > 7.1 earthquake. First, it continues to be relatively parallel to the north-east and Southeast symmetry axis, the North-South distribution, the north-west direction migrated, and second, moving eastward near 2006; and 2. Southeastern The earthquake belt takes 22.95 degree N as the symmetry axis and presents the "1 South to 2 North" distribution. It is found that the earthquake epicenter of the next Ms > 7.1 earthquake is likely to migrate south-west, move to the south of 23 degree N, and west of 122 degree E, that is, in the east of Taiwan Taitung; and the Northeast seismic belt Ms > 6.2 earthquake is symmetric axis of 122.1 degree E, showing "1 East to 2 West" East-West concussion. It is known that the future strong earthquakes are likely to leap southwestward to the east of Yilan, and can be able to be in the south of 24.7 N to the west of 122.01 E; (4) the Western seismic belt is symmetrical axis of 23.3 degree N and 120.9 E, showing the anti symmetry distribution of "two West One East and two North South". It can move north-east to the north of 23 N and east of 1210E, which is roughly located in Nantou city and Hualian city in Taiwan. (3) through the analysis of earthquakes and related factors: plate movement, sunspot activity, earth rotation, and ENSO events, the spatial distribution of the Taiwan earthquake and its geological structure and the relative motion characteristics of the plate of this area are ten The distribution of SE-NW direction is mainly influenced by the release of stress energy from the plate collision of the plate in the main direction of SEE-NWW. 2. All the seismic disasters in each division are mostly in the stage of the sunspot activity decline, the proportion of the years is up to 55.6%, 72.7%, 47.1%, and 47.1%, and the strong earthquakes of the Western seismic belt Ms more than 7 occur in the deceleration period of the earth's rotation, and the rest The response of each region to the transformation of the earth's rotation is not obvious. (4) except for the Western seismic belt, the earthquake years in the rest of the region are more than Nino years, the probability is above 70%, the higher the 78.8%. El Nino intensity is, the greater the magnitude of the earthquake magnitude in the year or the lagging year, and the year of the transition between the El Nino event and the La Nina event. The research area is more prone to earthquakes with greater magnitude. (4) 1900-2013 years, generally, a Ms > 8 earthquake occurred in Chile. In 4 years before and after it, Taiwan will have one or more earthquakes of Ms > 7.5. In addition, the seismic stress of similar tectonic structures in Chile and Taiwan has a better corresponding relationship between 38 and 39A. In the period of the change of 38a, The earthquake stress energy in Taiwan is in active period, which indicates that the possibility of earthquake in Taiwan is still high in the near future. It is worth paying attention to. This study confirmed the time anomaly point and space possible domain of the near 10A Taiwan strong earthquake disaster, enriched the study case of disaster trend judgment, and provided some reference for earthquake prevention and disaster reduction.
【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P315

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