四川省崩塌灾害特征及防治工程效果评价

发布时间：2018-06-24 19:20

本文选题：崩塌 + 灾害特征　；参考：《成都理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：四川山地丘陵广布,地震活动频繁,极端降雨多发,其诱发的崩塌灾害险情重、危害大、成灾快。“5.12”地震后大范围实施的崩塌防治工程成效显著,但存在工程失效和灾害复发等现象,因此对防治工程效果评价非常重要。本文依托《地质灾害综合防治关键技术与方法研究》项目,提出利用模糊综合评价方法进行防治工程效果评价,解决传统定量统计评价的局限,可为四川地质灾害防治任务提供理论方法。所提出的理论方法可为四川地质灾害防治工程建设工作提供参考,服务全省防灾减灾工作。参考四川基础地质资料,收集崩塌调查资料,从崩塌发育机制、控制因素和触发因素三个方面,利用传统统计方法,总结四川崩塌灾害类型与发育特征;通过收集全省7008个崩塌灾害样本和调查地震、降雨影响的典型地区崩塌实例,利用GIS成图技术和统计分类方法,按地形地质条件和崩塌发育特征,将四川分为3大片区和8种崩塌成因模式,针对四川地区崩塌发育分布的分区分带特点进行规律总结。基于统计量化各类型崩塌与各市州地震降雨资料,作为效果评价的地质环境指标之一。基于分形原理和样本统计分布情况,利用ArcGIS进行全省崩塌易发性区划,可服务于各市州防治工程级别设计。结合所收集的全省876处崩塌防治工程复核资料,对工程治理措施按主动治理、被动防护和辅助措施进行分项与组合统计,对各类措施组合类型的适用条件及其适用地区、各类型崩塌所适用的治理措施进行归纳。以130处崩塌防治工程勘察、施工设计资料为样本,总结主要工程措施的参数设计方法,筛选有效的治理措施作为样本,统计其设计参数,优化治理工程设计,总结失效的崩塌防治工程原因。统计876处崩塌防治工程效果复核样本中的工程治理措施有效性、防治工程安全性和防治工程外观3个指标,统计130处崩塌防治工程勘察、施工设计报告中的崩塌规模、工程级别、施工工期3个指标,结合上述的地质环境指标共7个指标建立防治工程效果评价指标体系。统计样本中各指标分级分布特征,客观地划分出指标分段值及其权重。将量化后的指标,代入模糊综合评价模型,计算防治工程效果评价论域矩阵,为防治工程效果进行分级。将分级结果与专家现场复核资料对比,一致性达到了73%,验证了该方法的可靠性,并初步应用BP神经网络进行防治效果评价,可作为效果评价的改进方法。
[Abstract]:Sichuan's mountainous hilly areas are widespread, with frequent seismic activities and frequent extreme rainfall. The collapse disaster caused by it is very dangerous, and it is harmful and rapid. The results of the large-scale collapse prevention and control projects implemented after the "5.12" earthquake have been remarkable. But there are some phenomena such as engineering failure and disaster recurrence, so it is very important to evaluate the effect of prevention and control engineering. Based on the project of key techniques and methods for Comprehensive Geological disaster Prevention and Control, this paper puts forward a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the effect of prevention and control engineering, and solves the limitation of traditional quantitative statistical evaluation. It can provide a theoretical method for the prevention and control of geological disasters in Sichuan. The proposed theory and method can provide reference for the construction of geological disaster prevention and control engineering in Sichuan province and serve the disaster prevention and mitigation work in the whole province. Referring to the basic geological data of Sichuan Province, collecting the data of collapse investigation, from three aspects of collapse development mechanism, controlling factors and triggering factors, using the traditional statistical method, the types and development characteristics of collapse disaster in Sichuan are summarized. By collecting 7008 samples of collapse disaster and investigating the typical areas affected by earthquakes and rainfall, the authors use GIS mapping technology and statistical classification method, according to the topographic and geological conditions and the characteristics of collapse development. Sichuan is divided into 3 large areas and 8 types of collapse formation patterns, and the characteristics of zoning and zonation of collapse development and distribution in Sichuan are summarized. Based on the statistical quantification of the data of various types of collapses and earthquakes and rainfall in various cities and states, it is regarded as one of the geological environmental indicators for the evaluation of the effects. Based on the fractal principle and the statistical distribution of samples, ArcGIS is used to carry out the regionalization of the risk of collapse in the province, which can be used in the design of prevention and control engineering grade in every city. Combined with the collected data of 876 collapse prevention and control projects in the province, the project control measures are classified and combined according to active control, passive protection and auxiliary measures, and the applicable conditions and applicable areas of all kinds of measures combination types are analyzed. Various types of collapse applicable to the treatment measures to sum up. Taking 130 collapse prevention and control engineering survey and construction design data as samples, the parameter design methods of main engineering measures are summarized, and effective control measures are selected as samples to calculate the design parameters and optimize the control engineering design. The causes of failure collapse prevention and control project are summarized. The effectiveness of engineering control measures, the safety and appearance of prevention and control projects, the survey of 130 collapse prevention projects and the scale of collapse in construction design reports are counted. The evaluation index system of prevention and control engineering effect is established by three indexes of engineering grade and construction period and seven indexes of geological environment indexes mentioned above. The distribution characteristics of each index in the statistical sample are graded, and the index segmenting value and its weight are objectively divided. The quantitative index is replaced by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and the domain matrix of the effect evaluation of the prevention and control engineering is calculated, and the effect of the prevention and control engineering is classified. By comparing the classification results with the field review data of experts, the consistency is 73. The reliability of the method is verified, and the BP neural network is applied to evaluate the prevention and cure effect, which can be used as an improved method of effect evaluation.
【学位授予单位】：成都理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P642.21

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