楔体稳定性概率分析方法及应用

发布时间：2018-07-12 16:32

本文选题：楔体 + 不确定性　；参考：《哈尔滨工业大学学报》2017年12期

【摘要】：为综合分析参数具有多种不确定性的楔体的稳定性,提出一种基于Fisher最优分割法和盲数理论的楔体稳定性概率分析方法,该方法通过构造基于Fisher最优分割法的楔体稳定性盲数评价模型,综合考虑楔体参数的多种不确定性,确定楔体稳定性概率分布.文章构建了单滑面与双滑面的不确定性楔体稳定性盲数评价模型,将该模型应用于经典的双滑面楔体稳定性分析之中,并与传统的均值安全系数、数值模拟、蒙特卡洛抽样(MCS)方法的结果进行对比,结果表明:均值安全系数法和swedge数值分析只能给出一个固定的安全系数,准确度较低,不能考虑楔体的失稳概率,基于Fisher最优分割法和盲数理论的楔体稳定性分析方法安全系数累计频率与公认比较准确的蒙特卡洛抽样方法几乎重合,并且更加的高效简便,验证了该方法的可靠性与有效性.最后,将该方法应用于兴城某楔体的稳定性评价,为楔体的防治提供数据支撑.
[Abstract]:In order to synthetically analyze the stability of wedge with various uncertainties, a probability analysis method of wedge stability based on Fisher optimal segmentation method and blind number theory is proposed. By constructing a blind number evaluation model of wedge stability based on Fisher's optimal segmentation method, the probability distribution of wedge stability is determined by considering various uncertainties of wedge parameters. In this paper, a blind number evaluation model for the stability of uncertain wedges with single and double sliding surfaces is constructed. The model is applied to the classical stability analysis of double sliding wedges, and compared with the traditional mean safety factor and numerical simulation. The results of Monte Carlo sampling (MCS) method are compared. The results show that the mean safety factor method and the swedge numerical analysis can only give a fixed safety factor, and the accuracy is low, and the probability of instability of the wedge can not be considered. The cumulative frequency of the safety factor of the wedge stability analysis method based on Fisher's optimal segmentation method and blind number theory almost coincides with the accepted accurate Monte Carlo sampling method and is more efficient and simple. The reliability and effectiveness of the method are verified. Finally, the method is applied to evaluate the stability of a wedge in Xingcheng.
【作者单位】：吉林大学建设工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年基金(41202197);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41330636)
【分类号】：TU457

【相似文献】