河北地区活断层潜在地震最大震级及危险性研究

发布时间：2018-08-28 11:58

【摘要】：河北是华北地区乃至中国大陆东部地区地震活动最为活跃的地区之一,构造背景复杂,断层发育。随着全省11个城市活断层探测与地震危险性评价项目的推进,若干科研课题的研究,地质构造资料逐步积累,晚更新世以来的断层资料得到进一步更新。如何评估这些活动断层上的最大潜在地震震级及危险性是地震中长期预测中较为重要的一个问题。本文采用闻学泽等提出的潜在地震最大震级评估模型,对河北地区晚更新世以来的活动断层进行断层小区划分,建立了断层小区内最大地震震级M_(max)与震级频度关系a_t/b值之间的经验关系,并利用公式外推获得断层小区内的推测潜在震级上限值。另外,本文用强震等待时间的指数分布关系式计算了部分断层小区未来的中强地震发震概率。
[Abstract]:Hebei is one of the most active seismicity areas in North China and even in the eastern part of mainland China with complex tectonic setting and fault development. With the promotion of active fault detection and seismic risk assessment projects in 11 cities of the province, the research of several scientific research topics, the accumulation of geological structure data, and the further updating of fault data since the late Pleistocene. How to evaluate the maximum potential magnitude and risk of these active faults is an important problem in the medium and long term earthquake prediction. In this paper, the active faults in Hebei area since the late Pleistocene have been divided into fault zones by using the maximum magnitude assessment model of potential earthquakes proposed by Wen Xueze et al. The empirical relationship between the magnitude M _ (max) and the magnitude frequency of the maximum earthquake M _ (max) in the fault zone is established, and the extrapolation of the formula is used to obtain the predicted upper limit of the potential magnitude in the fault area. In addition, the probability of occurrence of moderate strong earthquakes in some fault areas in the future is calculated by using the exponential distribution of the waiting time of strong earthquakes.
【作者单位】：河北省地震局;
【基金】：河北省地震科技星火计划项目资助
【分类号】：P315

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