油气勘探测井工程项目风险管理研究
发布时间：2018-09-17 11:54
【摘要】：上世纪80年代始,油气勘探规模在全世界范围内逐渐变小,勘探难度因多种原因逐渐攀升,因此勘探风险逐渐增强。油气勘探测井作为地球物理学的分支,风险也随之增加。我所在的公司是美国石油服务公司,部分业务为国外石油公司做油气勘探开发中地质评价,地震解释及分析,测井工程,测井解释,单井储集层评价以及区域地质评价等油藏描述研究项目。本文的研究对象为本公司的测井工程项目。近年来,由于测井工程项目难度及风险大大增强。因此,需要对测井工程项目进行深度的风险管理研究。 本文建立了本公司石油天然气勘探测井工程项目的风险分析方法及评价体系。论文在查阅大量的文献资料的基础上,对油气测井行业及公司内部的现状做了细致的分析,并指出了存在的问题,论证了研究油气勘探测井风险管理研究的必要性。通过风险结构分解RBS法结合专家访谈法对油气勘探测井工程项目做完整详细的风险识别并加以分类。油气勘探测井工程项目分为6个风险类别,识别出23个风险因素。利用概率影响矩阵法对识别出的风险因素进行定性分析确定其风险等级和风险量化值,再引入层次分析法确定风险因素的权重值。将概率影响矩阵的风险量化值与层次分析法的权重值结合,对油气勘探测井工程项目进行综合风险评价,得出油气勘探测井工程项目的风险度为中度风险,其中有4个高风险因素,17个中等风险因素,2个低风险因素。对油气勘探测井工程项目识别出的风险因素按象限归类,对每一象限的风险因素逐一提出风险应对措施。 通过本文研究的油气勘探测井工程项目风险管理体系的建立,可以将公司目前存在的风险管理问题有效的解决,对公司的风险管理提供了积极的影响。
[Abstract]:Since the 1980s, the scale of oil and gas exploration has gradually become smaller in the world, and the exploration difficulty has gradually increased for various reasons, so the exploration risk has gradually increased. My company is the American Petroleum Service Company. Some of my businesses are geological evaluation, seismic interpretation and analysis, logging engineering, logging interpretation for foreign oil companies in oil and gas exploration and development. In this paper, the risk analysis method and evaluation system of oil and gas exploration logging project are established. On the basis of consulting a lot of documents, this paper makes a detailed analysis on the present situation of oil and gas logging industry and company, points out the existing problems, and proves the necessity of studying the risk management of oil and gas exploration logging. The risk identification and classification of oil and gas exploration logging engineering projects are made by RBS method of risk structure decomposition combined with expert interview. The probability influence matrix method is used to analyze the identified risk factors qualitatively to determine their risk grade and risk quantification value, and then the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is introduced to determine the weight of the risk factors. Combining the quantitative risk value of probability influence matrix with the weight value of AHP, the comprehensive risk evaluation of oil and gas exploration logging engineering project is carried out, and the risk degree of oil and gas exploration logging engineering project is medium risk. The risk factors identified by oil and gas exploration logging project are classified according to quadrant, and the risk countermeasures are put forward one by one for each quadrant. Through the establishment of the risk management system of the oil and gas exploration logging project in this paper, the existing risk management problems in the company can be effectively solved and the risk management of the company can be positively affected.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学院大学（工程管理与信息技术学院）
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P631.81
本文编号：2245826
[Abstract]:Since the 1980s, the scale of oil and gas exploration has gradually become smaller in the world, and the exploration difficulty has gradually increased for various reasons, so the exploration risk has gradually increased. My company is the American Petroleum Service Company. Some of my businesses are geological evaluation, seismic interpretation and analysis, logging engineering, logging interpretation for foreign oil companies in oil and gas exploration and development. In this paper, the risk analysis method and evaluation system of oil and gas exploration logging project are established. On the basis of consulting a lot of documents, this paper makes a detailed analysis on the present situation of oil and gas logging industry and company, points out the existing problems, and proves the necessity of studying the risk management of oil and gas exploration logging. The risk identification and classification of oil and gas exploration logging engineering projects are made by RBS method of risk structure decomposition combined with expert interview. The probability influence matrix method is used to analyze the identified risk factors qualitatively to determine their risk grade and risk quantification value, and then the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is introduced to determine the weight of the risk factors. Combining the quantitative risk value of probability influence matrix with the weight value of AHP, the comprehensive risk evaluation of oil and gas exploration logging engineering project is carried out, and the risk degree of oil and gas exploration logging engineering project is medium risk. The risk factors identified by oil and gas exploration logging project are classified according to quadrant, and the risk countermeasures are put forward one by one for each quadrant. Through the establishment of the risk management system of the oil and gas exploration logging project in this paper, the existing risk management problems in the company can be effectively solved and the risk management of the company can be positively affected.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学院大学（工程管理与信息技术学院）
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P631.81
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