基于回归模型预测的民勤绿洲地下水位动态驱动因子分析
发布时间：2018-09-19 15:22
【摘要】：基于民勤绿洲近15a的地下水位实测数据,系统分析了绿洲地下水位的年际变化动态,并通过SPSS分析软件对引起绿洲地下水位变动的8个潜在变化环境因子进行相关分析和多元回归分析,建立了地下水位动态初步评价的回归模型。结果表明:(1)绿洲地下水位动态表现为人类活动强烈干扰下的地下水位逐年下降和地下水位不均衡;(2)回归模型显示,地下水开采量、粮食作物种植面积和人口规模是影响民勤绿洲地下水动态变化的重要限制因子,且地下水开采量是绝对主导性因子。
[Abstract]:Based on the measured data of groundwater level in Minqin oasis in recent 15 years, the interannual variation of groundwater level in Minqin oasis is analyzed systematically. Based on the correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis of eight potential environmental factors which cause the change of groundwater level in oasis, a regression model for preliminary evaluation of groundwater level is established by using SPSS software. The results show that: (1) the groundwater level in oasis decreases year by year and the groundwater level is unbalanced under the strong disturbance of human activities, and (2) the regression model shows that the groundwater exploitation rate, Grain crop planting area and population scale are the important limiting factors which influence the dynamic change of groundwater in Minqin oasis, and groundwater exploitation is the absolute dominant factor.
【作者单位】： 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所;中国科学院大学;兰州大学哲学社会学院;
【基金】：中国科学院创新国际团队项目(Y42AC71001)资助
【分类号】：P641
本文编号：2250521
[Abstract]:Based on the measured data of groundwater level in Minqin oasis in recent 15 years, the interannual variation of groundwater level in Minqin oasis is analyzed systematically. Based on the correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis of eight potential environmental factors which cause the change of groundwater level in oasis, a regression model for preliminary evaluation of groundwater level is established by using SPSS software. The results show that: (1) the groundwater level in oasis decreases year by year and the groundwater level is unbalanced under the strong disturbance of human activities, and (2) the regression model shows that the groundwater exploitation rate, Grain crop planting area and population scale are the important limiting factors which influence the dynamic change of groundwater in Minqin oasis, and groundwater exploitation is the absolute dominant factor.
【作者单位】： 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所;中国科学院大学;兰州大学哲学社会学院;
【基金】：中国科学院创新国际团队项目(Y42AC71001)资助
【分类号】：P641
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