基于LHS方法的岩质边坡平面滑动可靠性分析
发布时间：2018-11-15 23:44
【摘要】：岩质边坡的稳定性主要受控于结构面,当岩坡中的结构面信息不明确时,可以采用临界倾角对应的最危险滑面来分析岩坡的平面滑动稳定性。同时由于实际边坡的各项指标均具有一定的变异性,在边坡分析时应当考虑这些变异性对边坡稳定性的影响,所以基于参数不确定性的边坡可靠性分析方法更为合理。本文即从临界倾角的解析求解展开,利用拉丁超立方抽样(LHS)可靠性分析方法,分析了同时考虑参数不确定性和最危险滑面不确定性的岩质边坡可靠性,优化了可靠性分析方法的计算精度和效率,并将研究成果应用到工程实践。本文的主要工作及主要结论如下：(1)通过解析计算给出了三种边坡模型下的临界倾角显式求解公式,有助于岩坡稳定性和可靠性研究以及边坡工程设计等多个方面的分析和应用。(2)基于一次二阶矩法和蒙特卡罗法在可靠性分析中所存在的问题,本文采用以分层抽样为核心算法的LHS方法来计算岩坡的可靠性,并通过具体算例对三种方法的计算结果做了比较,结果表明LHS方法在对输入变量分布函数的拟合以及收敛速度等方面都具有一定的优势,不仅有效地提高了边坡可靠性分析的效率,而且能保证计算的精度。(3)考虑参数不确定性和最危险滑面的不确定性,本文对香港秀茂坪岩质边坡进行了可靠性分析,计算结果显示基于体系可靠度方法计算的边坡失效概率最大,概率临界滑面得到的结果次之,最危险滑面得到的失效概率最小,可见后面两种方法都有低估边坡系统失效概率的可能,所以通过比较说明在岩坡的可靠性分析当中,更应该采用体系可靠度的方法对边坡进行评价。(4)在上述岩坡体系可靠度计算的基础上,分析了参数变异性对临界倾角和安全系数的影响,结果表明抗剪强度参数的敏感度最大。还分析了参数间相关性对计算结果的影响,指出随着参数间负相关性的增加,边坡体系的失效概率随之降低。(5)将临界倾角的求解公式和体系可靠度分析方法应用到山东临沂换流站站址边坡的评价当中,同时采用安全系数和失效概率两个指标来评价边坡,结果表明该边坡安全可靠。
[Abstract]:The stability of rock slope is mainly controlled by the structural plane. When the information of the structural plane in the rock slope is not clear, the most dangerous slip surface corresponding to the critical slope angle can be used to analyze the plane sliding stability of the rock slope. At the same time, the influence of these variability on slope stability should be considered in slope analysis, so the reliability analysis method based on parameter uncertainty is more reasonable. Based on the analytical solution of critical dip angle and the (LHS) reliability analysis method of Latin hypercube sampling, the reliability of rock slope considering both parameter uncertainty and most dangerous slip surface uncertainty is analyzed in this paper. The calculation accuracy and efficiency of reliability analysis method are optimized, and the research results are applied to engineering practice. The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the explicit solution formulas of critical slope angle under three kinds of slope models are given by analytical calculation. It is helpful for the study of rock slope stability and reliability, and the analysis and application of slope engineering design. (2) based on the problems of first-order second-moment method and Monte Carlo method in reliability analysis, In this paper, the LHS method with stratified sampling as the core algorithm is used to calculate the reliability of rock slope, and the results of the three methods are compared through concrete examples. The results show that the LHS method has some advantages in fitting the distribution function of input variables and the convergence rate, which not only improves the efficiency of slope reliability analysis, but also improves the efficiency of slope reliability analysis. And the accuracy of calculation can be guaranteed. (3) considering the uncertainty of parameters and the most dangerous slip surface, the reliability analysis of Xiumaoping rock slope in Hong Kong is carried out. The results show that the slope failure probability is the largest based on the system reliability method, followed by the probability critical slip surface, and the most dangerous slip surface has the lowest failure probability. It can be seen that the latter two methods have the possibility of underestimating the failure probability of the slope system, so it is shown by comparison that in the reliability analysis of the rock slope, The method of system reliability should be used to evaluate the slope. (4) on the basis of the reliability calculation of the rock slope system mentioned above, the influence of parameter variability on critical inclination angle and safety factor is analyzed. The results show that the sensitivity of shear strength parameters is the highest. The influence of the correlation between parameters on the calculation results is also analyzed, and it is pointed out that with the increase of the negative correlation between parameters, The failure probability of slope system decreases with it. (5) the formula of critical dip angle and system reliability analysis method are applied to evaluate the slope of Linyi converter station in Shandong province. At the same time, the safety factor and failure probability are used to evaluate the slope, and the results show that the slope is safe and reliable.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P642.22
本文编号：2334750
[Abstract]:The stability of rock slope is mainly controlled by the structural plane. When the information of the structural plane in the rock slope is not clear, the most dangerous slip surface corresponding to the critical slope angle can be used to analyze the plane sliding stability of the rock slope. At the same time, the influence of these variability on slope stability should be considered in slope analysis, so the reliability analysis method based on parameter uncertainty is more reasonable. Based on the analytical solution of critical dip angle and the (LHS) reliability analysis method of Latin hypercube sampling, the reliability of rock slope considering both parameter uncertainty and most dangerous slip surface uncertainty is analyzed in this paper. The calculation accuracy and efficiency of reliability analysis method are optimized, and the research results are applied to engineering practice. The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the explicit solution formulas of critical slope angle under three kinds of slope models are given by analytical calculation. It is helpful for the study of rock slope stability and reliability, and the analysis and application of slope engineering design. (2) based on the problems of first-order second-moment method and Monte Carlo method in reliability analysis, In this paper, the LHS method with stratified sampling as the core algorithm is used to calculate the reliability of rock slope, and the results of the three methods are compared through concrete examples. The results show that the LHS method has some advantages in fitting the distribution function of input variables and the convergence rate, which not only improves the efficiency of slope reliability analysis, but also improves the efficiency of slope reliability analysis. And the accuracy of calculation can be guaranteed. (3) considering the uncertainty of parameters and the most dangerous slip surface, the reliability analysis of Xiumaoping rock slope in Hong Kong is carried out. The results show that the slope failure probability is the largest based on the system reliability method, followed by the probability critical slip surface, and the most dangerous slip surface has the lowest failure probability. It can be seen that the latter two methods have the possibility of underestimating the failure probability of the slope system, so it is shown by comparison that in the reliability analysis of the rock slope, The method of system reliability should be used to evaluate the slope. (4) on the basis of the reliability calculation of the rock slope system mentioned above, the influence of parameter variability on critical inclination angle and safety factor is analyzed. The results show that the sensitivity of shear strength parameters is the highest. The influence of the correlation between parameters on the calculation results is also analyzed, and it is pointed out that with the increase of the negative correlation between parameters, The failure probability of slope system decreases with it. (5) the formula of critical dip angle and system reliability analysis method are applied to evaluate the slope of Linyi converter station in Shandong province. At the same time, the safety factor and failure probability are used to evaluate the slope, and the results show that the slope is safe and reliable.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P642.22
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 姚耀武，，陈东伟;土坡稳定可靠度分析[J];岩土工程学报;1994年02期
本文编号：2334750
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/kejilunwen/diqiudizhi/2334750.html
