基于Kriging与改进灰色组合模型的边坡变形分析研究

发布时间：2019-01-02 07:59

【摘要】：近十几年以来人类对山体的工程活动逐年增加,由此造成的边坡数量也逐年增多,但由人类对边坡保护欠缺等原因造成的滑坡灾害也急剧增加。滑坡一旦发生便会造成不可估量的损失,因此为了能够对滑坡采取相应防范措施,减少滑坡灾害损失,我们针对易造成滑坡的边坡体进行变形分析。边坡变形分析能有效分析预测边坡形变及其变化趋势,因此它是一项非常有意义的工作。但由于重视程度和研究投入等各项差异,相比于国外发达国家的边坡变形分析水平,我国在边坡变形分析的准确性和高效性上还是有一定差距的。在以上研究背景及目的下,本文针对传统边坡变形分析理论模型进行研究,提出了一种全新的分析预测组合模型,即基于Kriging与改进灰色组合模型,其简写为K-改灰组合模型。该组合模型具有Kriging模型和灰色模型这两种模型的优点,能有效提高边坡变形分析预测精度。本文主要的研究内容可概括为以下几点:(1)将地质统计学中的Kriging理论运用于边坡变形分析,说明了其思路来源,介绍了Kriging理论在边坡变形分析中的优势与不足,并分析其理论可能性,列出了依据及假设。(2)对传统灰色模型进行了相关改进,使得改进后的灰色模型具有“新陈代谢”功能,有效提高了灰色模型分析预测精度。(3)结合某一边坡变形监测实例,把Kriging和灰色理论应用于边坡形变位移量分析预测中。针对Kriging模型的建立,先统计分析得出Kriging模型变异函数,而后在三维空间上运用等效应椭圆原理套合Kriging球状模型,最后最佳选取Kriging各方向插值模型。(4)探讨如何解决改进灰色模型和Kriging模型权重分配问题,并把这两个模型进行组合预测,然后利用各模型间的相关几项指标进行精度评定对比,最后分析得出结论:相比于Kriging模型和灰色模型,K-改灰组合模型能很好结合这两种模型各自的优势,其分析预测精度最高,Kriging模型和改进灰色模型这两种模型分析预测精度次之,而灰色模型分析预测精度最低。
[Abstract]:In the past ten years, human engineering activities to the mountain have been increasing year by year, and the number of slope caused by this has also increased year by year, but the landslide disaster caused by the lack of human protection to the slope has also increased sharply. Once the landslide occurs, it will cause incalculable losses, so in order to take the corresponding preventive measures to the landslide and reduce the landslide disaster loss, we analyze the deformation of the slope which is prone to the landslide. Slope deformation analysis can effectively analyze and predict slope deformation and its changing trend, so it is a very meaningful work. However, due to the differences in the degree of attention and research input, compared with the level of slope deformation analysis in developed countries, there is still a certain gap in the accuracy and efficiency of slope deformation analysis in China. Under the above research background and purpose, this paper studies the traditional slope deformation analysis theory model, and puts forward a new combination model of analysis and prediction, that is, based on Kriging and improved grey combination model, which is abbreviated as the K-change grey combination model. The combined model has the advantages of Kriging model and grey model, and can effectively improve the accuracy of slope deformation analysis and prediction. The main research contents of this paper can be summarized as follows: (1) applying Kriging theory in geostatistics to slope deformation analysis, explaining its source of thinking, introducing the advantages and disadvantages of Kriging theory in slope deformation analysis. The theoretical possibility of the model is analyzed, and the basis and hypothesis are listed. (2) the traditional grey model is improved, which makes the improved grey model have the function of "metabolism". The prediction accuracy of grey model analysis is improved effectively. (3) combined with a slope deformation monitoring example, Kriging and grey theory are applied to the slope deformation displacement analysis and prediction. Aiming at the establishment of Kriging model, the variation function of Kriging model is obtained by statistical analysis, and then the Kriging spherical model is combined with the equal-effect elliptic principle in three dimensional space. Finally, the optimal selection of Kriging interpolation model in each direction. (4) discuss how to solve the weight distribution problem of improved grey model and Kriging model, and combine the two models to predict. Then, the accuracy of each model is evaluated and compared with each other. Finally, the conclusion is drawn that compared with Kriging model and grey model, the combination of K- grey model can combine the advantages of the two models. The precision of analysis and prediction is the highest, the Kriging model and the improved grey model are the second, and the grey model is the lowest.
【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：P642.22

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