基于目标规划的我国铜矿资源开发模拟研究

发布时间：2019-01-06 09:11

【摘要】：铜是我国急需紧缺的具有战略性意义的有色金属之一。近年来,随着我国经济快速发展,对铜矿资源需求不断加大,然而我国铜矿资源的储量是有限的,其静态储量保障年限现已不足7年,保障程度低,安全供应能力差。因此,如何提高我国铜矿资源的保障程度,满足当前社会经济发展所需是国土资源管理部门亟待解决的问题。本论文以可持续发展理论为指导,结合循环经济理论、矿产资源安全理论、矿产资源需求理论及矿产资源规划理论,从矿产资源规划管理的角度出发,在对我国铜矿资源的地质勘查、开发利用及市场运行现状分析的基础上,建立了以提高铜矿资源保障程度、满足国民经济发展对铜矿的需求及提高铜矿供应安全程度为目标的我国铜矿资源开发的目标规划模型,并进行了模拟研究。认为:近年来,我国铜矿资源的地质勘查力度在不断加大,查明资源储量在持续增长;开发利用水平不断提高,但资源分布的不均匀及铜矿山规模结构的不合理也对铜矿的开发利用造成了极大地限制。国家政策的落实和先进综合利用技术的应用使得综合利用产值快速增长。我国铜产品的产量与消费量都在持续增长,但铜工业的产业结构不合理导致了铜产品结构的不合理及供需的不平衡;国内铜产品的供应不足,导致对外依存度高,贸易逆差不断加大。从我国铜矿资源开发的目标规划模型的模拟结果来看,到2020年我国铜矿的储量和铜精矿的年产量要在2012年的基础上翻一番,分别达到2095万吨和300万吨左右;铜精矿的年进口量(金属量)为366万吨左右,与2012年相比增加130万吨左右。根据我国铜矿资源现状分析结论及我国铜矿资源开发的目标规划模型的求解结果,提出了我国铜矿资源的可持续开发的建议:加强矿产资源勘查,提高铜矿资源的保障能力;优化铜工业产业结构,提高国内铜矿供应能力。
[Abstract]:Copper is one of the strategic nonferrous metals in urgent need in China. In recent years, with the rapid development of China's economy, the demand for copper resources is increasing. However, the reserves of copper resources in China are limited, its static reserves guarantee life is less than 7 years, the degree of security is low, and the safety supply capacity is poor. Therefore, how to improve the guarantee degree of copper resources and meet the needs of the current social and economic development is an urgent problem to be solved by the land and resources management department. Under the guidance of the theory of sustainable development, combined with the theory of circular economy, the theory of mineral resources safety, the theory of mineral resources demand and the theory of mineral resources planning, this paper starts from the perspective of mineral resources planning and management. Based on the analysis of the present situation of geological exploration, development and utilization and market operation of copper resources in China, the authors have established a plan to improve the degree of copper resources guarantee. The objective programming model for the development of copper resources in China, which is aimed at meeting the demand of the national economy and improving the safety of copper supply, is studied and simulated. It is concluded that in recent years, the geological exploration of copper resources in China is increasing continuously, and the reserves of copper resources are continuously increasing. The level of exploitation and utilization has been improved continuously, but the uneven distribution of resources and the unreasonable scale structure of copper mine have also greatly restricted the development and utilization of copper deposits. The implementation of national policy and the application of advanced comprehensive utilization technology make the output value of comprehensive utilization increase rapidly. The output and consumption of copper products in China are increasing continuously, but the unreasonable industrial structure of copper industry leads to the unreasonable structure of copper products and the imbalance of supply and demand. Insufficient supply of domestic copper products, leading to high external dependence, increasing trade deficit. According to the simulation results of the target programming model of copper resource development in China, by 2020, the reserves and annual output of copper concentrate in China will double to 20.95 million tons and 3 million tons respectively, on the basis of 2012. The annual import of copper concentrate is about 3.66 million tons, an increase of about 1.3 million tons compared with 2012. Based on the analysis of the present situation of copper resources in China and the result of solving the objective programming model of copper resources development in China, the suggestions for sustainable development of copper resources in China are put forward: strengthening the exploration of mineral resources and improving the support capacity of copper resources; Optimize the industrial structure of copper industry and improve the supply capacity of domestic copper mines.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.1

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