基于GIS的神农架林区崩滑流灾害风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-01-28 19:13

本文关键词： 崩滑流风险评价 Binary Logistic回归模型确定性系数　出处：《地理信息世界》2016年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本研究以地质灾害频发的神农架林区为研究区域,以崩塌、滑坡、泥石流3种相关性较高的灾害为研究对象,基于GIS技术进行区域崩滑流灾害的综合风险评价,以辅助城乡规划及相关工作。评价基于研究区地形、地质、灾害点等基础数据,选取崩滑流灾害影响因子,利用Arc GIS空间分析功能,结合SPSS软件进行Binary Logistic回归分析,构建灾害风险评价模型,编制基于模型的研究区崩滑流风险评价图,得到相应评价结果,获知灾害孕育发生的主要影响因素及区域内崩滑流灾害高风险区分布情况。并探讨评价结果在辅助防灾减灾专项规划编制、城乡发展方向确定、重大基础设施选址等规划重点工作方面的应用,以期通过规划,防治和规避崩滑流地质灾害,保障山区人民群众的生命财产安全。
[Abstract]:This study takes Shennongjia forest area with frequent geological disasters as the research area and takes collapse landslide and debris flow as the objects of study. Based on GIS technology, the comprehensive risk assessment of regional landslide disaster is carried out to assist urban and rural planning and related work. The evaluation is based on the basic data of terrain, geology, disaster point and so on. The disaster risk assessment model was constructed by selecting the factors affecting the landslide flow, using the spatial analysis function of Arc GIS and combining the Binary Logistic regression analysis with the SPSS software. Based on the model, the risk assessment map of landslide flow in the study area is compiled, and the corresponding evaluation results are obtained. The main influencing factors of disaster preparation and the distribution of high risk area of landslide flow disaster in the region are known. The evaluation results are discussed in the assistance of disaster prevention and mitigation special planning, and the direction of urban and rural development is determined. In order to prevent and avoid landslide geological disasters and ensure the safety of people's lives and property in mountainous areas, the key work of planning such as siting of major infrastructure facilities is discussed in this paper.
【作者单位】：武汉大学城市设计学院;武汉大学数字城市研究中心;武汉大学遥感信息工程学院;地理空间信息技术协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAL05B07)资助
【分类号】：P642.2;P208
【正文快照】： 0引言崩塌、滑坡、泥石流(简称“崩滑流”)等地质灾害一直是世界各国人民的巨大安全威胁,我国也不例外。2010年8月7日,甘肃舟曲县发生特大泥石流,1 481人遇难,284人受伤,1 824人失踪;2015年12月20日,深圳市恒泰裕工业园发生山体滑坡,77人遇难;2016年5月8日,福建三明市开善乡

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