基于矢量元胞自动机的城市土地利用演化模拟

发布时间：2018-02-14 08:11

本文关键词： 城市规划元胞划分矢量元胞自动机土地利用变化模拟　出处：《南京师范大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：元胞自动机是(Cellular Automata, CA) 一种时间、空间均离散的网格动力学模型,因其具有模拟空间演化过程的能力而被广泛应用于模拟和预测城市土地利用变化和城市发展形态。现有将城市规划要素纳入规则的模型普遍缺少对城市政策时空分异性、阶段性、区域性特征的量化表达,且多集中在栅格形式,而实际上,不规则网格体系演化更加接近城市真实的社会、经济、自然变化过程。国家自然科学基金项目“顾及城市扩展模式的不规则矢量元胞自动机和多主体模型研究”(41671385)致力于采用不规则矢量CA弥补以上不足。本文受到该基金支持,结合空间信息理论,从矢量元胞与空间地理格网的共性入手,分析空间层次推理方法在元胞划分中的可应用性,并采用该方法划分矢量元胞。归纳并重分类了土地利用变化因子,尤其是动态规划因子对土地利用变化的影响,并将因子约束分类为静态约束条件和动态约束条件。最后在此基础上构建了矢量元胞自动机模型并进行实例验证。主要研究内容和成果如下:(1)总结并回顾了元胞自动机的发展,现状和不足,梳理了模型的基本原理与要素。(2)从地理空间网格体系的视角审视矢量元胞,并将空间信息理论的层次空间推理方法运用到矢量元胞划分过程。设计划分方法,并根据本文研究目的划分土地利用矢量元胞。(3)定性并定量描述了空间因子对土地利用变化的影响,并对因子进行重分类为自然因子、交通因子、城市格局因子、城市规划因子四种类型。并将四类因子的约束作用归纳为静态约束与动态约束。并利用二元逻辑回归模型、土地利用转移矩阵、规划参数等将约束条件模型化。(4)以南京市为研究区,使用多期历史土地利用数据、总体规划数据和交通道路数据等对以上模型进行实例验证。模拟了南京市市区2000年、2005年的土地利用变化,通过Kappa系数验证了模型的精度和实用性。
[Abstract]:Cellular automata (CA) is a dynamic model with discrete time and space. Because of its ability to simulate spatial evolution process, it is widely used to simulate and predict urban land use change and urban development. In fact, the evolution of irregular grid systems is closer to the real society and economy of the city. Natural change process. The National Natural Science Foundation of China "irregular Vector Cellular Automata and Multi-agent Model Research taking into account the Urban expansion Model" is committed to using irregular vector CA to make up for the above deficiency. Based on the theory of spatial information and the generality of vector cell and spatial geographical grid, the applicability of spatial hierarchical reasoning method in cell division is analyzed. The method is used to divide the vector cells. The effects of land use change factors, especially dynamic programming factors, on land use change are summarized and classified. Factor constraints are classified into static constraints and dynamic constraints. Finally, a vector cellular automaton model is constructed and verified by an example. The main research contents and results are as follows: 1) the development of cellular automata is summarized and reviewed. This paper reviews the basic principles and elements of the model from the perspective of geo-spatial grid system, and applies the hierarchical spatial reasoning method of spatial information theory to the process of vector cell division. According to the purpose of this study, the paper classifies the land use vector cell. 3) qualitative and quantitative description of the influence of spatial factors on land use change, and reclassifies the factors as natural factors, traffic factors, urban pattern factors. There are four types of urban planning factors. The constraints of the four types of factors are divided into static constraints and dynamic constraints. And using the dual logic regression model, the land use transfer matrix, Planning parameters, etc., model the constraints. 4) take Nanjing City as the research area and use multi-period historical land use data. The land use change in Nanjing city on 2000 and 2005 is simulated, and the accuracy and practicability of the model are verified by Kappa coefficient.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;P208

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