基于SARIMA模型的电离层总电子含量短期预报

发布时间：2018-05-21 21:02

  本文选题：电离层 + 总电子含量　； 参考：《东华理工大学学报(自然科学版)》2016年S1期

【摘要】：针对电离层总电子含量(total electron content,TEC)序列呈现周期性特征,采用季节时间序列(seasonal ARIMA,SARIMA)模型对TEC序列进行预报分析。利用JSCORS 2010年的GPS双频观测数据计算的VTEC序列为样本数据建立模型,实验结果表明:VTEC序列建立合适的季节ARIMA模型,并运用该模型进行短期预测,预测值与实测值变化趋势一致,短期预报的平均相对精度可达89%,但预报精度会随预报长度的增加而减小。
[Abstract]:In view of the periodicity of total electron contentTECs in ionosphere, seasonal time series (seasonal Arima) model is used to predict and analyze TEC sequences. The model is established by using the VTEC series calculated from the GPS dual-frequency observation data of JSCORS 2010 as the sample data. The experimental results show that the appropriate seasonal ARIMA model is established by using this model, and the short-term prediction is carried out by using the model, and the predicted values are consistent with the observed values. The average relative accuracy of short term prediction can reach 89%, but the prediction accuracy will decrease with the increase of prediction length.
【作者单位】： 山东电力工程咨询院有限公司;江西省水利规划设计研究院;江西省水工结构工程技术中心;
【分类号】：P228.4;P352
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本文编号：1920781