基于GIS的内蒙古畜牧业综合区划及其发展趋势研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 13:03

  本文选题：畜牧业 + 综合区划　； 参考：《内蒙古师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文以内蒙古自治区为研究区，选取内蒙古1990～2010年的畜牧业统计指标来确定畜牧业资源综合区划指标体系，计算畜牧业的资源丰度指数，并对各个指标进行分析评价，最后分析内蒙古畜牧业资源分布的空间特征；将选取内蒙古12个盟市的畜牧业资源综合丰度值，结合内蒙古2010年的Landsat TM影像、气候数据、DEM数据、土壤数据、水文数据、交通数据、居民地分布数据和行政区划数据，主要利用ArcGIS9.3计算内蒙古畜牧业资源分布的畜牧业自然资源潜力系数和畜牧业社会经济资源潜力系数，进而实现了内蒙古畜牧业资源分布空间化；将根据内蒙古畜牧业资源空间分布特征、畜牧业自然资源有效面积估算结果以及畜牧业综合区划原则对内蒙古畜牧业进行了综合区划；最后利用数列预测方法建立GM(1，1)模型对内蒙古12个盟市2011～2015年畜牧业产值进行预测。主要研究结果如下： （1）畜牧业资源系统是一个复杂的巨大系统，因此指标体系也是一套复杂的体系。指标选取时，考虑多方面的因素并且指标本身应具有明显的农业意义。根据内蒙古畜牧业本身的特点并结合实地调查到得情况和资料收集情况，确定畜牧业资源综合评价指标包括：自然资源、生态、经济、社会效益、畜禽品种、畜产品等六个方面。 （2）内蒙古畜牧业资源综合丰度指数在73.38～9.32之间，赤峰市畜牧业资源综合丰度指数最高达78.38，乌海市畜牧业资源综合丰度指数最低为9.32。内蒙古畜牧业资源综合丰度指数＞60为好，畜牧业综合丰度指数在此范围的有赤峰市和通辽市，说明这两个地区的畜牧业资源配合度较好。内蒙古畜牧业资源综合丰度指数在40～60之间为中等，畜牧业综合丰度指数在此范围的有锡林郭勒盟、呼伦贝尔市、乌兰察布市和鄂尔多斯市。内蒙古畜牧业资源综合丰度指数＜40为较差，畜牧业综合丰度指数在此范围的有巴彦淖尔市、兴安盟、呼和浩特市、包头市、阿拉善盟和乌海市。 （3）根据内蒙古畜牧业自然条件、社会经济因素和产业发展方向将全区划分为三大区：第一区（Ⅰ）为东部畜禽、畜产品与饲草料供给区；第二区（Ⅱ）为中部畜产品交易集散中心；第三区（Ⅲ）为西部畜禽保护品种白绒山羊和双峰驼生产基地。 （4）对2010～2015年内蒙古畜牧业产值进行预测。从预测结果来看，总体上内蒙古畜牧业产值都有增长趋势。从2010～2015年呼和浩特市的畜牧业产值增长率最大18.69%，其次为包头市17.50%，阿拉善盟畜牧业产值增长率最低。呼和浩特市和包头市作为中部畜产品交易集散中心用有着独特的区位、交通、资源优势未来几年畜牧业有着较快的发展。东部畜禽、畜产品与饲草料供给区的畜牧业产值增长率为全区的42.33%，，中部畜产品交易集散中心的畜牧业产值增长率为全区的37.76%，西部畜禽保护品种白绒山羊和双峰驼生产基地的畜牧业产值增长率为全区的19.91%。
[Abstract]:This paper takes Inner Mongolia Autonomous region as the research area, selects the animal husbandry statistical index of Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2010 to determine the index system of the comprehensive division of animal husbandry resources, calculates the resource abundance index of animal husbandry, and analyzes and evaluates each index. Finally, the spatial characteristics of animal husbandry resources distribution in Inner Mongolia are analyzed, and the comprehensive abundance values of animal husbandry resources in 12 Inner Mongolia cities are selected, combined with Landsat TM image, climate data, Dem data, soil data and hydrological data of Inner Mongolia in 2010. Traffic data, residential distribution data and administrative division data, ArcGIS9.3 is mainly used to calculate the natural resource potential coefficient of animal husbandry and the potential coefficient of social and economic resources of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia. The spatial distribution of animal husbandry resources in Inner Mongolia will be realized according to the characteristics of the spatial distribution of animal husbandry resources in Inner Mongolia. The estimation results of the effective area of animal husbandry natural resources and the principle of comprehensive regionalization of animal husbandry were carried out for the comprehensive regionalization of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia. Finally, the GM (1K1) model was established to predict the animal husbandry output value from 2011 to 2015 in 12 Mengcheng cities in Inner Mongolia by using the method of series prediction. The main results are as follows: (1) Animal husbandry resource system is a complex huge system, so the index system is also a complex system. When selecting indicators, many factors should be considered and the indicators themselves should have obvious agricultural significance. According to the characteristics of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia and the situation of field investigation and data collection, it is determined that the comprehensive evaluation indexes of animal husbandry resources include: natural resources, ecology, economy, social benefits, livestock and poultry varieties. (2) the comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry resources in Inner Mongolia is between 73.38 and 9.32, the highest comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry resources in Chifeng is 78.38, and the comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry resources in Wuhai is 9.32. The comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry resources in Inner Mongolia is better than 60, and the comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry in this range is Chifeng city and Tongliao city, which shows that the coordination degree of animal husbandry resources in these two areas is better. The comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry resources in Inner Mongolia is moderate between 40 and 60. The comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry in this range is Xilinguole League, Hulunbeir city, Wulanchabu city and Ordos city. The comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry resources in Inner Mongolia is less than 40. The comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry in this range includes Bayannur City, XingUNITA, Hohhot City, Baotou City, Alashan League and Wuhai City. (3) according to the natural conditions of Inner Mongolia animal husbandry, social and economic factors and industrial development direction, the whole region is divided into three regions: the first region (I) is the eastern region of livestock and poultry, livestock products and forage feed supply area; The second area (鈪

本文编号：2105048