银川市耕地变化与基本农田空间布局优化研究

发布时间：2018-07-23 10:03

【摘要】：耕地是土地资源中的精华,人们获取农产品的基础条件。结合我国人多地少的国情,以及城市化过程中不可避免占用耕地的状况,更加凸显了耕地保护研究的重要性。通过选取西部地区具有典型代表的银川市作为研究区,结合遥感和GIS,分析了在快速城市化背景下区域耕地变化规律性特点,识别耕地变化关键驱动因子,预测耕地变化趋势,并提出了结合LUCC研究成果的基本农田布局优化方法,为耕地保护与区域可持续发展提供理论依据和科学支撑,本研究主要结论如下： (1)在快速城市化的背景下,通过对银川市耕地数量、空间与质量变化规律分析表明：1989-2009年间,耕地表现出持续快速膨胀式扩张的特点。1999年前,耕地增加主要位于新城区(西夏区),1999年后,耕地增加主要位于东部老城区(兴庆区)和北部郊区县(贺兰县)。从耕地空间和结构变化的特点来看,1999年前,耕地转换主要为市区西部大面积的未利用地开发;1999年后,主要表现为中心城区城镇用地迅速扩张占用周边耕地,以及农业生产圈外围的土地开发和整个区域内开展的土地整治。全市耕地重心向西北部移动,长期农业生产中形成了局部稳定性区域,并且城市扩张“贴边建设”占耕比例过高这一现象在1999年后表现得更为显著。全市耕地平均自然质量持续性降低,在1999年前表现的更加明显。结合耕地景观指数分析表明,耕地的破碎化程度经历了先升高后降低的过程,而耕地集约利用水平则持续提高。 (2)通过乡镇统计面板数据与遥感分类数据相结合,探索1999-2009年间银川市耕地变化驱动力分析表明：耕地自然质量以及城镇距离构成了耕地减少的重要驱动因子,从数量关系上证明了耕地减少对于自然与区位条件具有偏好性;移民开发引起的人口总量增加以及快速城市化是这一时期内耕地数量增加的主要驱动因子;社会经济条件对于耕地数量变化具有两方面作用,利用经济措施调控耕地数量,从宏观上看,需要调整产业结构,逐步降低第二产业产值比例,从微观上看,则需要保障农民收益水平；种植粮食作物对于促进耕地面积增加,抑制耕地面积减少具有双重作用,表明银川市作为引黄灌区重要商品粮基地这一战略定位对于保障耕地面积产生了积极影响。 (3)在土地利用规划约束下实现了2020年耕地空间布局预测。利用遥感影像反映出的规律性,结合银川市级土地利用规划空间布局和规划约束性指标的限制,通过CA-Markov模型得出了2020年土地利用图。预测结果分析表明,未来时期内耕地仍是土地利用变化的核心地类,耕地数量将会继续增加。可供开发的耕地后备资源已经接近枯竭,由于开发生态性用地以及劣质耕地退化,耕地平均质量稳中略有提升。同时过度开发引起的耕地退化现象会进一步凸显,因此在耕地利用中需要强调对生态环境的保护,重点协调区域水资源供给平衡,实行优质耕地保护策略是实现区域耕地保护与可持续发展的关键。 (4)在综合银川市耕地变化相关研究成果的基础上,针对区域特点,构建了基于耕地自然质量、经济驱动、规划预测以及生态安全的基本农田质量综合评价体系,同时设置了质量最优、经济最优以及生态最优3种不同的情景模式,通过选取图斑为评价单元,将耕地的质量区位、图斑属性及利用方式相结合,创新提出了基于耕地图斑综合排序模型划定基本农田的方法,实现了优质耕地的集中连片保护,并通过该模型确定了不同情景模式下基本农田划定的范围。对比分析表明,当前银川市的基本农田保护区划定方案,统筹考虑了自然质量、经济驱动以及生态环境风险三个不同方面,整体布局具有合理性。
[Abstract]:Cultivated land is the essence of land resources, the basic conditions for people to obtain agricultural products. Combined with the national conditions of many people in China and the unavoidable occupation of cultivated land during the process of urbanization, the importance of cultivated land protection is highlighted. The Yinchuan City, a typical representative of the western region, is selected as the research area, combined with remote sensing and GIS, The characteristics of the regional cultivated land change under the rapid urbanization background are analyzed, the key driving factors of cultivated land change are identified and the change trend of cultivated land is predicted. The basic farmland layout optimization method combined with LUCC research results is put forward to provide theoretical basis and scientific support for cultivated land protection and regional sustainable development. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: Below:
(1) in the background of rapid urbanization, the analysis of the quantity, space and quality change of cultivated land in Yinchuan shows that in the 1989-2009 years, the cultivated land showed the characteristic of continuous rapid expansion of expansion.1999 years ago, the increase of cultivated land was mainly located in the new urban area (Xixia District). After 1999, the increase of cultivated land was mainly located in the eastern old city (Xingqing District) and the north. In the suburb county (Helan county). From the characteristics of the spatial and structural changes of cultivated land, the conversion of cultivated land was mainly for the unused land development in the west of the urban area before 1999. After 1999, the main performance was the rapid expansion of the surrounding farmland in the urban area of the central urban area, the development of the land outside the agricultural production circle and the soil carried out in the whole region. The area of local stability was formed in the long term agricultural production, and the phenomenon of high proportion of "border construction" in urban expansion was more significant after 1999. The average natural quality of cultivated land in the city was reduced continuously, and it was more obvious before 1999. The index analysis showed that the fragmentation degree of cultivated land experienced a process of increasing first and then decreasing, while the intensive utilization level of cultivated land continued to increase.
(2) through the combination of township statistical panel data and remote sensing data, the analysis of the driving force of cultivated land change in Yinchuan in the past 1999-2009 years shows that the natural quality of the cultivated land and the urban distance constitute an important driving factor for the reduction of cultivated land, and it is proved that the reduction of cultivated land has a preference for the natural and regional conditions. The increase of total population and rapid urbanization are the main driving factors for the increase of the quantity of cultivated land during this period. The social and economic conditions have two roles on the change of cultivated land, and the use of economic measures to regulate the quantity of cultivated land. From the macroscopic view, it is necessary to adjust the industrial structure and gradually reduce the proportion of the output value of the second industry, from the micro level. As a matter of view, the income level of farmers should be guaranteed, and the planting of grain crops has double effects on increasing the area of cultivated land and reducing the reduction of cultivated land area. It shows that the strategic positioning of Yinchuan as an important commodity grain base in the Yellow River irrigation area has a positive impact on the protection of the cultivated land area.
(3) under the constraints of land use planning, the spatial distribution of cultivated land in 2020 was predicted. By using the regularity of remote sensing images, the land use map of 2020 was obtained through the CA-Markov model combined with the restriction of the spatial layout and planning constraints of the urban land use planning in Yinchuan. The prediction results showed that the cultivated land was still in the future period. As the core category of land use change, the number of cultivated land will continue to increase. The reserve resources for cultivated land are nearly exhausted. The average quality of cultivated land is slightly improved because of the development of ecological land and the degradation of inferior cultivated land. Meanwhile, the degradation of cultivated land caused by overexploitation will be further highlighted, so the cultivated land is used in the cultivated land. It is necessary to emphasize the protection of the ecological environment, to coordinate the balance of water supply in the region, and to implement the protection strategy of high quality arable land is the key to realize the protection and sustainable development of the regional arable land.
(4) on the basis of comprehensive research results of cultivated land change in Yinchuan, based on the regional characteristics, a comprehensive evaluation system of basic farmland quality based on natural quality of cultivated land, economic driving, planning and forecasting and ecological security is constructed. At the same time, 3 different scenarios are set up with the best quality, the best economy and the ecological optimal, through the selection of the map. The spot is the evaluation unit, combining the quality location of the cultivated land, the attribute of the plot spot and the way of utilization, the method of drawing up the basic farmland based on the comprehensive ranking model of cultivated land is put forward, and the centralized protection of the high quality cultivated land is realized, and the range of the basic farmland delimited under the different situational mode is determined by the model. At present, the basic farmland protection area of Yinchuan is delimited, considering three different aspects of natural quality, economic drive and ecological environment risk as a whole, and the overall layout is reasonable.
【学位授予单位】：中国农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P208;F323.211

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