中国近海风暴潮预报模型及WebGIS空间发布研究

发布时间：2018-10-10 19:38

【摘要】：风暴潮是一种由于剧烈的大气扰动如热带气旋而导致海水异常升降的灾害性自然现象。当风暴潮遇上天文大潮时,往往会使受其影响的海区水位暴涨。因风暴潮引起的灾害损失高居海洋灾害之首,准确而及时有效的数值预报是非工程性防潮减灾的重要措施之一。本文以中国近海为研究区域,针对当前风暴潮数值模型存在的问题与不足,结合实际应用的需要,工作内容与研究结论主要包括以下三个方面： (1)热带气旋是一种复杂的天气现象,针对热带气旋路径的预报具有高度非线性的特征,利用“CMA-STI热带气旋最佳路径数据集”提供的热带气旋历史数据,考虑地转偏向力对热带气旋预测结果的影响,筛选优化预报因子并进行无量纲化处理,改进原有的基于PSO-BP申经网络的热带气旋预测方法,将预测范围扩展至中高纬度的东海海域。 (2)基于PSO-BP神经网络的热带气旋预测方法的预测结果可以为研究区域海面风压场的模拟提供输入,根据二维水动力学方程组耦合天文潮与纯风暴潮增水,构建热带气旋作用下的中国近海风暴潮数值模型。实例验证结果表明该模型与实测数据在振幅和相位上都基本吻合,整体上能反映出热带气旋对附近海域潮位造成的影响。 (3)在Web环境下结合Fortran较强的数值计算能力和地理信息系统GIS技术可视化表达上的优势,封装集成相关的数值计算模型,实现集热带气旋路径预测和风暴潮增水预报于一体的中国近海风暴潮预报系统,为热带气旋预测与风暴潮数值预报结果提供直观形象的空间查询和可视化表达,最终为科学决策提供依据和支持,减轻由热带气旋引起的风暴潮对沿海的社会、经济所造成的损失。
[Abstract]:Storm surge is a disastrous natural phenomenon caused by severe atmospheric disturbances such as tropical cyclones. When storm surges meet astronomical tides, they tend to inflate the water levels in the affected sea areas. The disaster loss caused by storm surge is one of the most important marine disasters. Accurate and timely numerical prediction is one of the important measures for non-engineering dampproof and disaster reduction. In this paper, taking the coastal waters of China as the research area, aiming at the problems and shortcomings of the current storm surge numerical model, combined with the needs of practical application, The main work and conclusions are as follows: (1) Tropical cyclone is a complex weather phenomenon, and the prediction of tropical cyclone path is highly nonlinear. Based on the historical data of tropical cyclones provided by the best path data set of tropical cyclones (CMA-STI), the effects of geostrophic deflection on the prediction results of tropical cyclones are considered, and the optimized forecast factors are screened and processed in a dimensionless manner. Improve the original tropical cyclone forecasting method based on PSO-BP network, The prediction range is extended to the middle and high latitudes of the East China Sea. (2) the prediction results of the tropical cyclone forecasting method based on PSO-BP neural network can provide input for the simulation of the sea surface wind pressure field in the studied area. According to the two-dimensional hydrodynamic equations coupled astronomical tide with pure storm surge the numerical model of storm surge in the coastal waters of China under the action of tropical cyclone is constructed. The experimental results show that the model is in good agreement with the measured data in amplitude and phase. On the whole, it can reflect the influence of tropical cyclone on the tidal level in the nearby sea area. (3) combined with the strong numerical computing ability of Fortran and the advantages of GIS visualization in Web environment, The integrated numerical calculation model is integrated to realize the storm surge forecasting system in offshore China, which integrates tropical cyclone path prediction and storm surge forecast. It can provide visual spatial query and visual expression for tropical cyclone prediction and storm surge numerical forecast result, and finally provide basis and support for scientific decision making, and reduce storm surge caused by tropical cyclone to coastal society. The loss caused by the economy
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：P208;P457

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