海底管道溢油风险评价体系的研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 15:16

本文关键词：海底管道溢油风险评价体系的研究　出处：《浙江大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：管道风险评价技术自上世界70年代起发展至今,逐渐经历了从定性风险评价方法到定量风险评价方法的转变过程。管道风险评价技术在陆上管道的应用中已经取得了一定的成绩,然而在海上管道的应用中研究还相对较少。本文在借鉴国外管道风险评价成功经验的基础上,结合我国实际的海底管道运行状况和环境条件,建立了一套海底管道溢油风险评价的方法。首先进行了危害辨识,建立了海底管道溢油事故的故障树分析模型,在此基础之上,结合多级模糊综合评价评价方法,建立了海底管道溢油风险评价体系。(1)海底管道溢油可能性指标体系将腐蚀、第三方破坏、自然力、疲劳、误操作作为第一级指标,并逐层建立了二级、三级指标体系。在溢油后果指标体系中,将介质危害和后果控制作为一级指标,向下建立了二级、三级指标体系。(2)运用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,采用专家意见法确定模糊关系矩阵。应用多级模糊综合评价法,最终关于可能性和后果均能得到一个0～100的得分。分数越高表明风险越大,并根据其在风险矩阵中的位置判断其风险是否可接受。(3)分别针对输油、输气和混输管道,对海底管道的溢油量算法进行了研究。为了使溢油后果指标体系中的溢油量指标同时体现五大风险源的影响,提出了综合溢油量的概念。(4)对管道定量风险进行了初探,研究了海底管道在腐蚀情况下,溢油概率的计算。内腐蚀深度采用了SwRI模型,内腐蚀长度认为是服从Weibull分布的随机变量。而外腐蚀深度和长度均被认为是服从Weibull分布的随机变量。分别用不同的爆破压力模型计算了溢油概率的大小。
[Abstract]:The pipeline risk assessment technology since 70s world development has experienced a gradual transition from the qualitative risk assessment method to the quantitative risk evaluation method. Some achievements have been made in the application of pipeline risk assessment of onshore pipeline, but its application in offshore pipeline in the study is relatively small. This paper based on abroad the pipeline risk assessment on the successful experience, combined with China's actual pipeline operation status and environmental conditions, methods to establish a set of submarine pipeline oil spill risk assessment. Firstly, the hazard identification, fault tree is established for submarine pipeline oil spill accident analysis model, on this basis, combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation evaluation method, a submarine pipeline oil spill risk evaluation system. (1) submarine pipeline oil spill probability index system corrosion, third party damage, natural force, fatigue, misoperation. As the first level index, and layer set up two level, three level index system. The index system of oil spill consequences, will harm and control as a consequence of the medium level indicators, down to set up two level, three level index system. (2) use the AHP method to determine the weight of each index by expert opinion method to determine the fuzzy relation matrix. The application of multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, finally on the possibility and consequences are able to get a 0 to 100 score. Higher scores indicated greater risk, and judge whether the risk is acceptable according to its position in the risk matrix. (3) respectively for oil, gas pipeline pipeline and oil spill volume, algorithm of submarine pipeline was studied. In order to make oil spill consequences in the index system of oil spill volume indicators also reflect the five risk sources, and put forward a comprehensive concept of the amount of oil spill. (4) of the pipeline quantitative risk in the study of. The submarine pipeline corrosion in case of overflow probability. In the calculation of oil corrosion depth using the SwRI mode, the internal corrosion length is assumed to be a random variable Weibull distribution. The outer corrosion depth and length are considered a random variable Weibull distribution respectively. Oil spill probability was calculated by the different blasting pressure model.

【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P756.2;X55;X82

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