厄尔尼诺年西北太平洋异常反气旋的年际变化特征及其影响

发布时间：2018-01-15 23:30

本文关键词：厄尔尼诺年西北太平洋异常反气旋的年际变化特征及其影响　出处：《气象学报》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于1901—2000年多种海-气资料,分析了厄尔尼诺成熟年冬季—初夏西北太平洋异常反气旋(WNPAC)的年际变化特征及其对东亚气候的影响。结果表明,无论是厄尔尼诺事件成熟期的冬季还是次年的春季和初夏,WNPAC的年际变化主要存在两个空间变化型,即反映其强度变化的经验正交函数分解第1模态和反映其位置变化的第2模态。厄尔尼诺成熟年冬季WNPAC强度不仅与赤道中东太平洋海温异常有关,而且与太平洋西部(WP)型遥相关的强度有关,而其位置的变化则主要与西北太平洋局地海温异常以及北极涛动(AO)有关;次年春季,WNPAC的强度除了与赤道中东太平洋海温异常和太平洋西部型遥相关存在显著相关外,还与赤道大西洋海温异常有关,而其位置的变化则主要与西北太平洋局地海温异常和太平洋西部型遥相关有关;次年初夏,WNPAC强度主要与西北印度洋和西南印度洋的海温异常以及东亚-太平洋(EAP)型遥相关的强度有关。进一步分析表明,成熟年冬季—初夏WNPAC的强度和位置的变化均可对东亚地区降水异常分布产生影响,这对预测厄尔尼诺事件发生后冬季及后期春、夏季节东亚地区降水异常分布具有一定的指示意义。此外,次年初夏,WNPAC强度变化与西北太平洋台风发生频数存在显著负相关,即WNPAC越强,台风发生的频数越少,反之亦然。
[Abstract]:Based on a variety of sea and air data from 1901-2000. The interannual variation characteristics of the anomalous anticyclone WNPAC in the Northwest Pacific Ocean in the winter and early summer of El Nino mature year and its influence on the climate of East Asia are analyzed. The interannual variation of WNPAC in spring and early summer of El Nino event in winter or in spring and early summer of next year mainly has two spatial variation patterns. That is, the empirical orthogonal function decomposes the first mode and the second mode reflects the change of its position. The WNPAC intensity in winter of El Nino mature year is not only related to the SST anomaly in the equatorial Middle East Pacific Ocean. Moreover, it is related to the intensity of the WP- type teleconnection in the western Pacific, and the change of its location is mainly related to the local SST anomalies in the Northwest Pacific Ocean and the Arctic Oscillation (AOA). The intensity of WNPAC in the next spring is related to the SST anomalies in the equatorial Middle East Pacific Ocean and the western Pacific Ocean, as well as to the SST anomalies in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. The change of its location is mainly related to the local SST anomaly in the Northwest Pacific and the teleconnection of the western Pacific. The WNPAC intensity in early summer is mainly related to the SST anomalies in the Northwest Indian Ocean and the South-West Indian Ocean and the teleconnection of EAP-type in the East Asia Pacific Ocean. The intensity and location of WNPAC in winter and early summer of mature year can affect the anomalous distribution of precipitation in East Asia, which can predict the winter and late spring after El Nino event. In addition, the intensity change of WNPAC in early summer next year has a significant negative correlation with the frequency of typhoon occurrence in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, that is, the stronger the WNPAC. The fewer typhoons occur, and vice versa.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室和气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心;大气科学与环境气象国家级教学示范中心(南京信息工程大学);
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41575077、41490643) 江苏省333高层次人才培养工程(BRA2015290)
【分类号】：P732
【正文快照】： 1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室和气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京,2100442.大气科学与环境气象国家级教学示范中心(南京信息工程大学),南京,2100441.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education and Collaborative Innovatio

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