两个典型ENSO季节演变模态及其与我国东部降水的联系

发布时间：2018-01-17 03:06

本文关键词：两个典型ENSO季节演变模态及其与我国东部降水的联系　出处：《大气科学》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文根据1950~2014年月平均海温和大气环流资料以及中国160站降水等资料,利用扩展经验正交函数(EEOF)分析、相关分析以及合成分析等方法,分析了太平洋海温季节演变的主导模态,并探讨了各模态与中国东部降水和东亚环流季节变异的关系及其联系的物理过程。结果表明,ENSO(El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation)季节演变存在2个主导模态,包含4种类型:El Ni?o持续型、La Ni?a持续型、La Ni?a转El Ni?o型和El Ni?o转La Ni?a型。发现不同模态和类型的ENSO季节变化过程我国东部降水距平的分布和强度都有明显差异。El Ni?o持续型和El Ni?o转La Ni?a型,冬春季和初夏均处在El Ni?o背景下,降水异常分布存在一定共性,但盛夏和秋季分别受El Ni?o和La Ni?a影响,降水异常分布差异十分明显,前者雨带北跳慢、位置偏南而后者雨带北跳快、位置偏北。La Ni?a持续型和La Ni?a转El Ni?o型也是如此,冬春季和初夏降水异常分布大致相似,但盛夏和秋季分别受La Ni?a和El Ni?o影响,前者雨带北跳快、位置偏北而后者雨带北跳慢、位置偏南。因此,利用ENSO做我国降水的气候预测时,不能只着眼于前期冬季El Ni?o或La Ni?a事件,还应考虑其未来演变所属的可能模态和类型。对他们之间联系的物理过程分析表明,不同ENSO季节演变模态和类型主要通过影响西太平洋副热带高压以及西风带经向型/纬向型环流调整及伴随的低纬暖湿水汽输送以及中高纬冷空气活动变化来影响我国东部降水。其中,西太平洋菲律宾群岛附近异常反气旋(或气旋)、赤道Walker环流和北半球Hadley环流分别是联系ENSO与西太平洋副热带高压活动和东亚西风带经向型/纬向型环流的重要环节。
[Abstract]:According to the 1950~2014 monthly mean SST and atmospheric circulation data and China 160 station precipitation data, by using the extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis, correlation analysis and composite analysis methods, the leading mode of Pacific SST seasonal evolution analysis, and discusses the physical process of each mode and precipitation in eastern Chinese and seasonal variation of the relationship between the East Asian circulation and their relationship. The results show that the ENSO (El Ni? O/Southern Oscillation) there are 2 main modes of seasonal evolution, including 4 types: El Ni? O La Ni a continuous type, continuous type, La? Ni? A El Ni? And El Ni? O La Ni? A distribution. The intensity and seasonal variation of ENSO during different modes and types of precipitation in eastern China anomaly have obvious difference between.El Ni and El Ni? O continuous type? O La Ni? A, in winter and spring and early summer are El Ni? O background, precipitation anomaly has some similarities, but Summer and autumn respectively by El O and La Ni? Ni? A, the precipitation anomaly distribution difference is very obvious, the former rain belt northward jump slow, southerly position while the latter rain belt northward jump quickly, the location of the North.La Ni? A La Ni A and sustained? El Ni? O so, winter and spring and early summer the precipitation anomaly is similar, but the summer and autumn respectively by La A and El Ni? Ni? O, the former rain belt northward jump quickly, the location of the north and the latter rain belt northward slow, southerly position. Therefore, using the ENSO climate forecast rainfall in China, not only focus on the previous winter El Ni? O or La Ni? A event, should also consider its future evolution of possible modes and types. The physical process of their connection analysis shows that different types of seasonal evolution of ENSO mode and mainly through the influence of the Western Pacific subtropical high and the westerly meridional type / zonal circulation adjustment and with low weft warm water Change of vapor transportation and high latitude cold air to affect the precipitation in the eastern part of China. Among them, the Western Pacific islands of Philippines near the anomalous anticyclone (or cyclone), Equatorial Walker circulation and Hadley circulation of the northern hemisphere are contact westerly ENSO and the Western Pacific subtropical high and East Asia with warp / weft is an important link of circulation.

【作者单位】：中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心;
【基金】：国家科技支撑计划项目2015BAC03B03 国家自然科学基金项目41375055~~
【分类号】：P426.6;P732
【正文快照】： ZONG HaifengInternational Center for Climate and Environment Sciences,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 1000291引言ENSO(El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation)是预兆世界性气候异常最强的信号,也是影响我国气候异常的一个主要物理因素(

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