海上溢油污染风险分级分区方法及应用研究

发布时间：2018-01-25 19:28

  本文关键词： 海洋溢油 风险分级 风险分区 大连海域 ArcGIS　出处：《大连海事大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国海洋石油勘探开发速度和规模的不断增长,海上溢油事故频频发生,大量石油烃通过各种途径进入海洋,不仅造成了能源严重浪费,同时给海洋生态环境、人类健康和社会经济发展带来了难以估量的危害与损失。因此,开展海域溢油事故风险评价及分级分区方法研究,对于促进海域溢油污染应急能力建设,减小事故污染损失和降低对周围环境的危害,具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。本文首先对海上整个石油储运及开采平台系统进行了风险源辨识与危害因素分析,总结得出海上溢油事故风险源主要有四大来源,分别是石油平台、船舶运输、油品储罐和输油管道。同时本文在对海洋历史溢油事故数据统计的基础上,全面分析了海洋溢油风险因素,总结为设施设备、自然环境、通航环境及人为因素四类。然后在基于溢油因素分析的基础上,以风险定义R=P×C为理论依据(其中,R、P、C分别代表风险、概率和后果),调查运输船舶、油品储罐、输油管线、石油平台四类海上溢油风险源的规模与分布,考虑历史溢油事故情况和海域敏感目标,采用数理统计方法和地理信息技术,建立了溢油污染风险分级分区的综合评价模型,即Rk=Pk×Ck×Sk(其中,Pk、Ck、Sk分别代表单元网格小区综合风险概率指数、综合溢油污染指数和综合溢油敏感系数),并将计算结果通过GIS平台直观可视化显示。最后,本文在研究了大连港海域交通现状、自然条件和环境敏感资源概况的基础上,对大连港海域进行了溢油风险综合评价及分级分区的实例研究。研究以事故可能性指数和风险源危险性指数计算综合风险概率指数,以综合风险概率指数、综合溢油污染指数、综合溢油敏感系数建立起综合评价模型,最终计算得到综合溢油风险值,并根据风险值进行了分级分区。结果显示：溢油风险值R4的研究海域为低风险区,4≤R10的海域为较低风险区,10R20的海域为中风险区,20≤R30的海域为较高风险区,R≥30的海域为高风险区。分区结果基本符合大连海域溢油风险现状,可为海洋溢油风险管理提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:With the increasing speed and scale of offshore oil exploration and development in China, oil spills occur frequently. A large number of petroleum hydrocarbons enter the ocean through various ways, which not only cause serious energy waste. At the same time, it brings incalculable harm and loss to marine ecological environment, human health and social economic development. It can promote the construction of emergency response capacity of oil spill pollution, reduce the loss of accident pollution and reduce the harm to the surrounding environment. It has important theoretical significance and practical value. Firstly, the risk source identification and hazard factor analysis of the whole offshore oil storage, transportation and exploitation platform system are carried out in this paper. It is concluded that there are four main sources of oil spill accident risk, namely, oil platform, ship transportation, oil storage tank and oil pipeline. At the same time, this paper is based on the statistics of marine oil spill accident data. The risk factors of marine oil spill are analyzed comprehensively, including facilities, natural environment, navigation environment and human factors. Then, based on the analysis of oil spill factors, four kinds of marine oil spill risk factors are summarized. On the basis of risk definition, RPX C represents risk, probability and consequence respectively, investigation of shipping vessel, oil storage tank and oil pipeline. The scale and distribution of four types of offshore oil spill risk sources on oil platforms, considering the historical oil spill accidents and sensitive targets in the sea area, adopting mathematical statistical method and geographic information technology. A comprehensive evaluation model of oil spill risk classification is established, that is, Rk=Pk 脳 C _ k 脳 SkS _ k represents the comprehensive risk probability index of cell grid area respectively. The oil spill pollution index and the oil spill sensitivity coefficient are synthesized, and the calculation results are visualized by GIS platform. Finally, the present traffic situation of Dalian Port is studied in this paper. Natural conditions and environmentally sensitive resource profiles based on. A case study of oil spill risk assessment and classification in Dalian Port was carried out. The comprehensive risk probability index was calculated by accident possibility index and risk source risk index, and the comprehensive risk probability index was used to calculate the comprehensive risk probability index. Comprehensive evaluation model is established by synthesizing oil spill pollution index and oil spill sensitivity coefficient. Finally, the comprehensive oil spill risk value is calculated. The results show that the study area of oil spill risk value R4 is a low risk area with a low risk area of 4 鈮，

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