气候变化影响下2050年广东沿海地区风暴潮风险评估

发布时间：2018-01-26 07:26

本文关键词： 气候变化风暴潮风险评估广东省海平面上升　出处：《科技导报》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着气候变化的影响,广东沿海地区台风风暴潮灾害时空分布逐渐发生变化。本文根据近30年来广东沿海地区18个验潮站的风暴潮资料以及近60年来西北太平洋热带气旋资料,结合前人对西北太平洋热带气旋与海表温度关系研究以及对珠江三角洲地区海平面上升趋势的预测研究,利用Arc GIS空间分析技术,对2050年广东省沿海地区风暴潮淹没范围进行了预测,并对不同区域风暴潮的危险性进行了分析评价。从社会经济、土地利用、生态环境、滨海构造物和承灾能力5个方面构建风暴潮承灾体脆弱性评估体系,完善了广东省沿海地区风暴潮脆弱性指标预测模型,通过该模型对2050年该地区风暴潮脆弱性进行了评估。在未来气候变化影响下风暴潮灾害危险性评价和脆弱性评估的基础上,对2050年广东沿海地区风暴潮灾害风险进行了综合评估,绘制了该地区风暴潮灾害风险评价图。
[Abstract]:With the effects of climate change. The temporal and spatial distribution of typhoon storm surge in coastal areas of Guangdong has gradually changed. Based on the storm surge data of 18 tidal stations in Guangdong coastal area in the past 30 years and the tropical cyclone data of the northwest Pacific in the last 60 years. Combined with previous studies on the relationship between tropical cyclones and sea surface temperature in the Northwest Pacific and prediction of sea-level rise trends in the Pearl River Delta region, Arc GIS spatial analysis technique is used. In 2050, the inundation range of storm surges in coastal areas of Guangdong Province was predicted, and the risk of storm surges in different regions was analyzed and evaluated from the aspects of social economy, land use and ecological environment. The vulnerability assessment system of storm surge disaster bearing body is constructed in five aspects of coastal structure and disaster bearing ability, and the prediction model of storm surge vulnerability index is improved in Guangdong coastal area. Through this model, the vulnerability of storm surge in this area was assessed in 2050. Based on the risk assessment and vulnerability assessment of storm surge disaster under the influence of climate change in the future. In 2050, a comprehensive assessment of storm surge disaster risk in Guangdong coastal area was carried out, and a map of storm surge disaster risk assessment in this area was drawn.
【作者单位】：中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41571041) “十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAC09B00) 农业部“中国农业适应气候变化关键技术引进”项目(2011-G9)
【分类号】：P731.23
【正文快照】： 未来气候变化将对海平面上升、全球环流系统变化、全球环境变化、生态系统退化以及冰冻圈退缩等产生显著影响,进而影响到人类社会生活的方方面面[1]。风暴潮灾害是由台风等强热带天气系统或温带天气系统所引起的,因此未来气候变化将对风暴潮灾害风险产生显著的影响。一方面,未

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