21世纪海上丝绸之路海洋上层热含量及热比容海平面异常变化

发布时间：2018-03-10 22:32

本文选题：上层海洋热含量　切入点：太平洋　出处：《海洋学报》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：气候变暖背景下,全球平均海洋变暖和海平面上升显著,为人类社会的可持续发展带来巨大挑战。上层海洋热力状况是海平面变化的主导因子之一。本文围绕"21世纪海上丝绸之路"途经海区(文中简称为丝路海区)上层海洋热含量异常的区域性时空特征,分析探讨了丝路海区热比容海平面异常的时空变化、演变特征及可能影响,以期为"21世纪海上丝绸之路"海洋环境安全保障提供服务支撑。结果表明,自20世纪70年代中后期,丝路海区上层(0~700m)海洋已明显变暖,尤其20世纪90年代中后期增暖幅度显著加大。近60年来,在丝路海区热带海洋中,西太平洋的北赤道流区及以北海域、东海黑潮流域以及南海北部和南部海区、阿拉伯海西北部海域、马来西亚西北部海域及南印度洋部分海域具有长期增暖趋势。热带西太平洋暖池区整体增暖不明显,主要与印度洋中部海域呈反位相变化,且明显受到季节和年际变化的调制。长江口附近沿岸、南海北部沿岸、中南半岛南部沿岸以及阿拉伯海西北部沿岸的近岸海域长期增暖明显,自20世纪90年代中后期,中南半岛东部和西部沿海、澳大利亚西部沿海以及我国东南沿海热比容海平面上升明显。近岸热比容海平面的季节演变对沿海地区社会和经济发展会造成一定影响。此外,东亚夏季风与东海、黄海和渤海热比容海平面的上升显著相关,同时,ENSO、太平洋年代际振荡和印度洋偶极子的发生也均与我国东南沿海和印度洋西部沿海热比容海平面上升明显关联。特别是,气候变暖情形下,各种区域性致灾因子和气候变率的协同影响会对丝路海区海岸带和沿海地区的防灾减灾与社会经济发展带来较大挑战,开展海岸带和沿海地区全球变化综合风险研究成为当前首要任务。
[Abstract]:In the context of global warming, the global average ocean warming and sea level rise are significant. It brings great challenge to the sustainable development of human society. The thermal state of the upper ocean is one of the leading factors of sea level change. This paper revolves around the "sea silk road" passing through the sea area (referred to as the "silk road sea area") in 21th century. The regional temporal and spatial characteristics of the anomalous thermal content in the ocean layer, The temporal and spatial variations, evolution characteristics and possible effects of the sea level anomaly of heat specific capacity in the Silk Road area are analyzed and discussed in order to provide service support for the marine environmental safety and security of the "21th century Maritime Silk Road". The results show that, since the middle and later period of 1970s, The upper layer of the Silk Road area has become warmer, especially in the middle and late period of 1990s. In the past 60 years, in the tropical ocean of the Silk Road area, the northern equatorial current of the western Pacific Ocean and the north sea area have been observed. The Kuroshio basin in the East China Sea, the northern and southern sea areas of the South China Sea, the northern Arabian Hercynian waters, the northwest waters of Malaysia and some parts of the southern Indian Ocean have a long-term warming trend. It is mainly opposite to the central Indian Ocean and is obviously modulated by seasonal and interannual variations. The Yangtze River Estuary, the northern coast of the South China Sea, the Yangtze River Estuary, the northern coast of the South China Sea, The coastal waters along the southern coast of the Indochina Peninsula and the northwest coast of the Arabian Sea have increased significantly over a long period of time. Since the middle and late 1990s, the eastern and western coasts of the Indochina Peninsula, The sea level rise is obvious along the west coast of Australia and the southeast coast of China. The seasonal evolution of coastal heat specific capacity sea level will have a certain impact on the social and economic development of coastal areas. In addition, the East Asian Summer Monsoon and the East China Sea, There is a significant correlation between Huang Hai and the sea level rise in the specific heat capacity of the Bohai Sea. Meanwhile, ENSO, the Pacific Ocean Interdecadal oscillation and the occurrence of the Indian Ocean dipole are all significantly related to the sea level rise in the southeast coast of China and the western coast of the Indian Ocean. In the case of climate warming, the synergistic effects of various regional disaster factors and climate change rates will bring great challenges to the coastal zone and coastal area disaster prevention and mitigation and social and economic development in the Silk Road area. It is the most important task to study the comprehensive risk of global change in coastal zone and coastal area.
【作者单位】：国家海洋局第三海洋研究所国家海洋局海洋-大气化学与全球变化重点实验室;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划“全球变化及应对”重点专项(2017YFA0604901) 中国清洁发展机制基金项目(2014112) 福建省自然科学基金面上项目(2017J01076)
【分类号】：P731

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