中国近海海表温度的年代际变化及其对全球变暖的响应

发布时间：2018-03-15 22:14

本文选题：海表面温度　切入点：海洋平流热输运　出处：《中国海洋大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文依据两种不同的观测数据：原始观测数据（HadSST3）和重构的观测数据(HadISST1)，以及耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5, the fifth phase of the CoupledModel Intercomparison Project）中的八个模式数据，并与青岛和上海气象台观测的气温数据相比较，研究了中国近海海表温度（SST）过去百年的变化趋势，探讨了上世纪后20年SST年代际变化成因，预估了未来SST变化趋势。得到如下具有一定创新性的成果：依据HadSST3数据，过去100多年（1900-2006）中国近海SST的变化趋势为0.8oC，在东海要比南海高达1oC，整个中国近海SST长期变化的趋势最大出现在福建省沿岸，台湾海峡以西海域冬季可达1.8oC。冬季SST的增暖趋势比夏季高。尽管依据HadSST1数据得到的SST变化趋势也具备冬季大于夏季的特点，但与上海、青岛气象台观测气温的变化趋势对比，证明HadSST1数据在重构的过程中出现误差。依据两种数据中国近海SST都出现1999年后增温停滞现象。尽管八个气候模式的模拟结果中，中国近海在1900-2006年都有SST增暖的现象，但主要表现为上世纪后20年增暖明显，增暖大约在0.4oC/20年左右。东中国海（尤其是东海黑潮区），SST升高的主要原因是海洋平流热输送的增加，这与太平洋年代际变化有密切的联系；在南海南部，在SST上升的同时，大气调整导致的感热与潜热释放减少是SST增暖的主要原因；在南海北部，SST持续上升是海面长波辐射减少，大气调整导致潜热释放减少和黑潮加强导致的热输送加强这3个因素共同作用的结果。在RCP4.5的排放情景下，整个中国近海SST从2006年到2055年增长1oC左右。SST持续升温的主要原因是对应的大气调整导致大气潜热释放的减少。以上对比分析证明了中国近海SST在年代际时间尺度上的变化主要取决于海洋动力过程带来的热平流效应，而作为对温室气体强迫响应的SST长期持续增温主要是由于大气调整导致的海面热通量的变化。
[Abstract]:Based on two different observational data: the original observation data (HadSST3) and the reconstructed observation data (Hadis ST1), and the eight model data in the coupled mode comparison plan (CMIP5, the fifth phase of the CoupledModel Intercomparison projects), Compared with the temperature data observed by Qingdao and Shanghai Meteorological Observatory, the variation trend of sea surface temperature (SST) in the coastal waters of China over the past 100 years is studied, and the causes of decadal variation of SST in the 20 years after 0th century are discussed. The trends of SST changes in the future are forecasted. Some innovative results are obtained as follows:. According to HadSST3 data, in the past 100 years or so, the variation trend of SST in China's offshore waters is 0.8 OC, which is as high as 1 OC in the East China Sea than in the South China Sea. The trend of long-term variation of SST in the whole offshore China is the largest along the coast of Fujian Province. The warming trend of SST in winter is higher than that in summer. Although the variation trend of SST obtained from HadSST1 data is larger in winter than in summer, it is compared with that observed by Shanghai and Qingdao meteorological stations. It is proved that there are errors in the process of reconstruction of HadSST1 data. According to the two kinds of data, the SST in offshore China appears the phenomenon of warming stagnation after 1999. Although SST warming occurred in the coastal waters of China from 1900 to 2006 in the simulated results of the eight climate models, it mainly showed that the warming was obvious in the 20 years after 0th century. The increase of SST in the East China Sea (especially in the Kuroshio area of the East China Sea) is mainly due to the increase of ocean advection heat transport, which is closely related to the Interdecadal variation of the Pacific Ocean, while in the south of the South China Sea, the SST is rising at the same time. The decrease of sensible heat and latent heat release caused by atmospheric adjustment is the main cause of SST warming, and the continuous rise of SST in the northern South China Sea is the decrease of sea surface long wave radiation. The combined effects of three factors, which are the decrease of latent heat release caused by atmospheric adjustment and the enhancement of heat transport caused by the Kuroshio. Under the RCP4.5 emission scenario, the main reason for the increase of SST from 2006 to 2055 is the decrease of atmospheric latent heat release due to the corresponding atmospheric adjustment. The above comparative analysis proves that the variation of SST in China offshore on the Interdecadal time scale mainly depends on the thermal advection effect caused by the ocean dynamic process. As a response to greenhouse gas forcing, the long-term continuous warming of SST is mainly due to the change of sea surface heat flux caused by atmospheric adjustment.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：P731.11;P732

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