渤海沿岸地区经济发展与入海排污量关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-18 00:00

本文选题：渤海　切入点：经济　出处：《海洋湖沼通报》2016年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为探究我国渤海沿岸地区经济发展与海洋环境污染的相关性,以渤海沿岸13个城市为调查区域,以1990至2014年的经济指标和入海排污量统计数据为基础,利用环境库兹涅茨曲线模型分析了经济增长与工业废水入海量、城镇污水入海量以及废水入海总量的关系。研究结果表明:统计年度中渤海沿岸地区人均GDP与工业废水入海量之间的关系尚不明确,但与城镇污水入海量和废水入海总量均为正U型关系,说明该地区经济增长对海洋环境污染具有直接推动作用。为判断未来的发展趋势,本文对2015—2020年的增长状况进行了预测,在与历史数据集成后进行分析,发现人均GDP与工业废水入海量转变为倒N型曲线关系,与城镇污水入海量和废水入海总量之间转变为倒U型关系,其转折点发生在2017年前后,说明近年来渤海沿岸地区经济增长与入海排污量的关系已开始发生逆转,如得以继续坚持,可望步入良性互动阶段。
[Abstract]:In order to explore the correlation between economic development and marine environmental pollution in the coastal areas of Bohai Sea in China, 13 cities along the Bohai Sea were taken as the investigation areas, and based on the economic indicators and the statistical data of sewage discharged into the sea from 1990 to 2014. The environmental Kuznets curve model is used to analyze the economic growth and industrial wastewater. The research results show that the relationship between GDP per capita and industrial wastewater in the coastal areas of Bohai Sea in statistical year is not clear. However, there is a positive U-type relationship with the amount of urban sewage and the total amount of wastewater into the sea, which indicates that the economic growth in this area has a direct role in promoting marine environmental pollution. In order to judge the future development trend, this paper forecasts the growth situation in 2015-2020. After analyzing the integration with historical data, it is found that the relationship between GDP per capita and industrial wastewater volume is transformed into inverted N-type curve, and the relationship between urban sewage mass and total wastewater into sea becomes inverted U-shaped, and the turning point occurs around 2017. It shows that the relationship between the economic growth and the amount of sewage discharged into the Bohai Sea has begun to reverse in recent years, and if it can continue to persist, it is expected to enter the stage of benign interaction.
【作者单位】：大连海事大学交通运输管理学院;
【基金】：辽宁省科技计划项目教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(12YJA630128);辽宁省科技计划项目(2012220008)资助
【分类号】：X55;F127

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