明清苏浙沿海台风风暴潮灾害序列重建与特征分析

发布时间：2018-03-24 23:19

本文选题：明清时期　切入点：苏浙地区　出处：《长江流域资源与环境》2016年02期

【摘要】：在系统搜集、整理明清苏浙沿海潮灾记录基础上,建立风暴潮频率辨识方法,复原台风风暴潮灾害750次,据此建立逐年风暴潮频率序列。分析显示,1460~1480年、1570~1595年、1715~1745年、1785~1810年、1880~1890年为风暴潮活跃期。明清苏浙沿海风暴潮存在45 a、25 a、14 a三种时间尺度周期,其中45 a周期最为显著。气候跃变分析表明,1402年、1457年、1566年、1624年、1652年、1711年、1846年、1880年风暴潮活动趋于活跃;1444年、1477年、1543年、1634年、1799年、1856年风暴潮趋于平静。与1470年以来温度距平曲线对比显示,气候冷暖与风暴潮发生频率有一定正相关性,全球变暖背景下苏浙沿海可能面临更为严重的风暴潮威胁。苏浙地区明清时期风暴潮灾害空间分布差异明显,大部分风暴潮记载集中于长三角、杭州湾地区,苏北地区风暴潮数量少但影响范围广,浙东地区受地形和经济发展程度影响,风暴潮记载数量少且集中于滨海。
[Abstract]:On the basis of systematically collecting and sorting out the records of tidal disasters along the Jiangsu and Zhejiang coasts in Ming and Qing dynasties, a method for identifying the frequency of storm surge was established to recover 750 typhoon storm surge disasters. Based on this, the frequency sequence of storm surge is established year by year. The analysis shows that the active period of storm surge is 1715 ~ 1745 ~ 1785 ~ 1810 ~ 1880 ~ 1890. The storm surge in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang coastal areas of Ming and Qing dynasties has three time scale periods of 45 a10 ~ 25 a ~ (14) a ~ (14) a. The climate jump analysis showed that the storm surges tended to be active in 1402, 1457, 1566, 1624, 1652, 1711, 1846, 1880, 1444, 1477, 1543, 1634, 1799, 1856 and 1470, respectively. Contrast of degree anomaly curve, There is a positive correlation between cold and warm climate and the frequency of storm surge. Under the background of global warming, the coastal areas of Jiangsu and Zhejiang may face more serious threat of storm surge, and the spatial distribution of storm surge disasters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas during the Ming and Qing dynasties is obviously different. Most of the storm surge records are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, Hangzhou Bay area and the northern part of Jiangsu Province. The storm surges in eastern Zhejiang are affected by topography and economic development, and the storm surge records are less and concentrated on the coastal area.
【作者单位】：北京大学城市与环境学院历史地理研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41230634;41330748)~~
【分类号】：P731.23

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